Economics 310 Economic Statistics: Measurement in Economics

This site provides resources for students in Economics 310 at the University of Wisconsin, Madison for Fall 2003 Semester

Instructor
Professor Menzie Chinn
Office Hours: M 4-6
Office: 7418 Social Sciences Bldg.
Phone: (608) 262-7397
email: mchinn@lafollette.wisc.edu
Home Page

Teaching Assistants
Kun Huang
Email: kunhuang@wisc.edu

Young-Joo Kim
Email: youngjookim@wisc.edu

Michael Malcolm
Email: mamalcolm@wisc.edu

Course Syllabus

Economics 310 is a course in probability and statistics with applications to economic and business problems. Much of applied economics is empirical in nature; hence, the understanding and application of statistical reasoning is key. We will also devote some time to regression analysis, the primary means by which economists measure the strength of economic relationships (e.g., price elasticities, the marginal propensity to consume, etc.).

The textbook is McClave, Benson and Sincich, Statistics for Business and Economics 8th Edition (Prentice-Hall, 2001). available at the University Bookstore.

Grading will be based upon five problem sets (20%), two midterms (40%) and one comprehensive final (40%).

Important Dates

• Midterm I: Monday, October 13 in 165 Bascom.
• Class cancelled: Wednesday, November 26.
• Midterm II: Wednesday, November 12 in 165 Bascom. Bring your Student ID card for verification purposes
• Final Exam: Sunday, December 14, 7:45AM, Van Vleck B102

Course Materials and Sources of Economic Information

Downloadable Course Materials

• Problem Set #1 due 9/22 in lecture.
• Problem Set #1 Answer Key.
• Conditional Probability and GDP Growth (9/24 lecture).
• Problem Set #2 due 10/8 in lecture.
• Practice Midterm 1
• Problem Set #2 Answer Key.
• Histogram of US GDP Growth (10/8 lecture).
• Midterm 1 Answer Key.
• Midterm 1 Statistics & Grading Curve.
• Problem Set #3 due 10/29 in lecture.
• Problem Set #3 Answer Key.
• Problem Set #4 due 11/10 in lecture.
• Practice Midterm 2
• Professor Walker's 2nd Midterm (1993). Use only at your own risk -- concepts covered by Professor Walker may not conform to those covered in this semester's course.
• Problem Set #4 Answer Key.
• Midterm 2 Answer Key.
• Midterm 2 and Cumulative Statistics & Grading Curve.
• Handout on testing for difference in variances (11/19 lecture).
• Answers to questions on testing for difference in variances (11/19 lecture).
• Examples of OLS estimates (11/24 lecture).
• Problem Set #5 due 12/8 in lecture.
• More examples of OLS estimates (12/3 lecture).
• Problem Set #5 Answer Key.
• Practice Final Exam corrected.
• Regression with higher order terms and dummies (12/10 lecture) .
• Final Exam

Data Sources

• White House Economic Briefing Room Contains current economic data.
• Bureau of Economic Analysis, Dept. of Commerce Data on GDP and components (the national income and product accounts) as well as other macroeconomic data.
• Bureau of the Census, Dept. of Commerce Data on the characteristics of the US population as well as of US firms.
• Bureau of Labor Statistics, Dept. of Labor Data on wages, prices, productivity, and employment and unemployment rates.
• Energy Information Agency, Dept. of Energy Data on on energy (electricity, gas, petroleum) production, consumption and prices.
• Statistical Abstract of the US A compilation of statistics about the US, from government and nongovernment sources.
• Conference Board's Indices of Leading Indicators Measures that are supposed to predict future economic activity.
• University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment Survey based measures of consumer sentiment.
• Economic Report of the President, various years. The back portion of this annual publication contains about 70 tables of government economic data.
• St. Louis Fed economic database Thousands of time series on economic activity, in an easily downloadable form.
• Economic Time Series page A large collection of economic time series.
• NBER Data Specialized economic databases created by economists associated with the National Bureau of Economic Research.
• NBER Macrohistorical database Historical macroeconomic data.
• Federal Reserve Board data Monetary, financial and output data collected by the Nation's central bank.
• Penn World Tables Annual GDP and other data for over a hundred countries, expressed in dollars, after adjusting for differing price levels.

Statistics related articles of current interest

• Brad Delong's Blog article using statistical theory to determine whether Bill Bennett could have possibly "broken even" gambling all those years.
• Who Wins and Who Loses if the Dollar Keeps Falling? NYT Oct. 14, 2003 Exploiting correlations between stock, bond prices and exchange rates.
• "Economics focus: Soft science no more," Economist (Oct. 9, 2003). (Nobel prize in economics for Granger and Engle)

Other