Economics 442: Macroeconomic Policy
This site provides resources for students in Economics 442
at the University of Wisconsin,
Madison for Fall 2020 Semester
Syllabus | Academic Integrity |
Important Dates |
Downloadable Course Materials and Information Sources |
Department of Economics
Robert M. LaFollette School of Public Affairs |
LECTURE: Via BBCollaborate (target MW 4-5:15)
Professor Menzie Chinn
Office Hours: TuTh 2-3
7418 Social Sciences
Tel: (608) 262-7397
Econ 442 Syllabus in PDF file.
This course will address current issues in modern macroeconomic policymaking, including: (1) the causes of growth slowdown; (2) the efficacy of fiscal and monetary policy, (3) the impact of policy uncertainty, (4) international macro policy challenges, (5) the recent behavior of inflation.
Prerequisites: Econ 301 or 311, and Econ 302 or 312, and Econ 310.
The required textbook is Olivier Blanchard, Macroeconomics 8/e (Prentice-Hall, 2021). Other required readings are listed below. In addition, some readings from Econbrowser will be assigned.
Academic Integrity: Academic Integrity is critical to maintaining fair and knowledge based learning at UW Madison. Academic dishonesty is a serious violation: it undermines the bonds of trust and honesty between members of our academic community, degrades the value of your degree and defrauds those who may eventually depend upon your knowledge and integrity.
Examples of academic misconduct include, but are not limited to: cheating on an examination (copying from another student's paper, referring to materials on the exam other than those explicitly permitted, continuing to work on an exam after the time has expired, turning in an exam for regrading after making changes to the exam), copying the homework of someone else, submitting for credit work done by someone else, stealing examinations or course materials, tampering with the grade records or with another student's work, or knowingly and intentionally assisting another student in any of the above. Students are reminded that online sources, including anonymous or unattributed ones like Wikipedia, still need to be cited like any other source; and copying from any source without attribution is considered plagiarism.
The Dept. of Economics will deal with these offenses harshly following UWS14 procedures:
If you think you see incidents of misconduct, you should tell your instructor about them, in which case they will take appropriate action and protect your identity. You could also choose to contact our administrator Tammy Herbst-Koel firstname.lastname@example.org) and your identity will be kept confidential.
For more information, refer to https://www.students.wisc.edu/doso/academic-integrity/
otect your identity. You could also choose to contact our administrator and your identity will be kept confidential.
- The penalty for misconduct in most cases will be removal from the course and a failing grade,
- The department will inform the Dean of Students as required and additional sanctions may be applied.
- The department will keep an internal record of misconduct incidents. This information will be made available to teaching faculty writing recommendation letters and to admission offices of the School of Business and Engineering.
Grievance Procedure: The Department of Economics has developed a grievance procedure through which you may register comments or complaints about a course, an instructor, or a teaching assistant. The Department continues to provide a course evaluation each semester in every class. If you wish to make anonymous complaints to an instructor or teaching assistant, the appropriate vehicle is the course evaluation. If you have a disagreement with an instructor or a teaching assistant, we strongly encourage you to try to resolve the dispute with him or her directly. The grievance procedure is designed for situations where neither of these channels is appropriate.
If you wish to file a grievance, you should go to room 7238 Social Science and request a Course Comment Sheet. When completing the comment sheet, you will need to provide a detailed statement that describes what aspects of the course you find unsatisfactory. You will need to sign the sheet and provide your student identification number, your address, and a phone where you can be reached. The Department plans to investigate comments fully and will respond in writing to complaints.
Your name, address, phone number, and student ID number will not be revealed to the instructor or teaching assistant involved and will be treated as confidential. The Department needs this information, because it may become necessary for a commenting student to have a meeting with the department chair or a nominee to gather additional information. A name and address are necessary for providing a written response.
- Midterm 1: 10/19
- Midterm 2: 11/18
- Term paper due: 12/10
Downloadable Course Materials
Required On-line Readings
- Start: "Starting over again: the Covid-19 pandemic..." Economist, July 25, 2020. [link]
- CBO: CBO, An Update to the Economic Outlook, July 2020 [link]
- ISLM: Notes on IS-LM [link]
- PCO: Notes on Portfolio Crowding Out. [link]
- KC: Kitchen and Chinn, Financing U.S. Debt: Is There Enough Money in the World -- and at What Cost?" International Finance [link]
- ADAS: Notes on Aggregate Demand/Aggregate Supply [link]
- BF: Blanchard, The Covid Economic Crisis [this replaces original FB] [link]
Section 1 of Baqaee, Farhi, "Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis," mimeo (June 2020). [link]
- NBER: [link] and [link]
- EWS: Recession Early Warning Systems [link]
- Chinn: Chinn, "Fiscal Multipliers" Palgrave Encyclopedia of Economics [link]
- Ku: Kuttner, "Outside the Box: Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Great Recession and Beyond," [ink]
- Open: Notes on Open Economy Macroeconomics [link]
- BCS: Blanchard, Cerutti, and Summers, "Inflation and Activity" [link]
- CGK: Coibion, Gorodnichenko, and Kamdar. "The formation of expectations, inflation, and the phillips curve" JEL [link]
- BBD: Baker, Bloom and Davis, "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," QJE [link]
- For IS-LM section: CBO, An Update to the Budget Outlook: 2020 to 2030 (September 2020). [link]
- For recession: CEPR-EABCN Euro Area Business Cycle Dating Committee, "Euro area entered recession in 2020Q1 after the peak of its slowest-ever recovery," Sept. 29, 2020. [link]
- For recession prediction: Chinn, Kucko, "The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve across Countries and Time," International Finance (March 2015). [link]
- For recession prediction: Miller, "There is No Single Best Predictor of Recessions," FEDS Notes. (2019). [link]
- For recession prediction: Bauer, Mertens, "Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions," SF Fed Economic Letters 2018-20 [link]
- For recession prediction: Favara, Gilchrist, Lewis, and Zakrajsek, "Recession Risk and the Excess Bond Premium," FEDS Notes. (2016). [link].
- For recession prediction: An, Jalles, Loungani, "How well do economists forecast recessions?" International Finance (2018) [link]
- For Covid-19 recession: CEA, "Evaluating the Effects of the Economic Response to COVID-19," August 12, 2020 [link]
- For Covid-19 recession/fiscal policy: CBO, The Effects of Pandemic-Related Legislation on Output, Sep 18, 2020. [link]
- For Covid-19 recession: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2020. [link]
- For Covid-19 recession/fiscal policy: Scott, et al. "Treasury and Federal Reserve Financial Assistance in Title IV of the CARES Act (P.L. 116-136)," CRS Report (August 5, 2020) [link]
- For monetary policy section: Federal Reserve, Guide to changes in the Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy (August 27) [link]
- For monetary policy section: Federal Reserve, The Federal Reserve's Review of Its Monetary Policy Framework: A Roadmap (August 27)[link]
- For monetary policy section: Aronson, "A more inclusive employment mandate," Brookings Institution (August 28, 2020). [link]
- For monetary policy section: Federal Reserve, System Analytical Work (on the Monetary Policy Framework) (August 27) [link]
- For monetary policy section: Hanson, et al., "Business Credit Programs in the Pandemic Era," BPEA (September 2020). [link]
- For monetary policy section: Driessen, Labonte, "COVID-19: The Federal Reserve's Municipal Liquidity Facility," CRS In Focus (August 14, 2020). [link]
- For monetary policy section: English, Liang, "Designing the Main Street Lending Program: Challenges and Options," Journal of Financial Crises (2020). [link]
- For monetary policy section: Frankel, "Lecture 8: Dynamic Inconstency of Monetary Policy, and How to Address It"[link]
- For monetary policy section: Chinn, Notes on Modern Monetary Theory for Paleo-Keynesians[link]
- For monetary policy section: Brad Delong, "What is Modern Monetary Theory," Jan. 21, 2019[link]
- For open economy section: Trade talks podcast with Matt Klein, Jay Shambaugh: "Inequality, Imbalances and Trade" [link]
- For Phillips Curve section: Bob Arnold, "How CBO Produces Its 10-Year Economic Forecast," Working Paper 2018-02 (February 2018).
- For tracking recessions section: Furman, "Extracting the Signal from the Noise: 7 Tips for Interpreting Macroeconomic Data," Milken Institute Review (2016). [link]
- For policy uncertainty section: Ferrera, Lhuissier, Tripier, "Uncertainty Fluctuations: Measures, Effects and Macroeconomic Policy Challenges," CEPII Policy Brief 20 (December 2017). [link]
Economist Special Report on the World Economy/Covid-19
Tracking the Covid-19 Pandemic and Recession
Weblogs and Perspectives
Economics and Economic Policy Links
U.S. Government Agencies
Current and Historical Data
- St. Louis Fed economic database Thousands of time series on economic activity, in an easily downloadable form.
- IMF International Financial Statistics via UW Data and Information Services Center
- YCharts Macro and equity market data series.
- Yahoo finance website Current financial data.
- Google finance website Current financial data.
- ino.com Futures data.
- Federal Reserve Board data Monetary, financial and output data collected by the Nation's central bank.
- Bureau of Economic Analysis, Dept. of Commerce Data on GDP and components (the national income and product accounts) as well as other macroeconomic data.
- Bureau of the Census, Dept. of Commerce Data on the characteristics of the US population as well as of US firms.
- Bureau of Labor Statistics, Dept. of Labor Data on wages, prices, productivity, and employment and unemployment rates.
- Energy Information Agency, Dept. of Energy Data on energy (electricity, gas, petroleum) production, consumption and prices.
- Economic Report of the President, various years. The back portion of
this annual publication contains about 70 tables of government economic data.
- Economic Indicators CEA and JEC Compilation of economic data in tabular form.
- Economic Time Series page A large collection of economic time series.
- NBER Data Specialized economic databases created by
economists associated with the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Economics 442 Macroeconomic Policy / UW Madison / email@example.com / 25 November 2020