Link to compilation of my NBER working papers
Link to SSRN compilation of my working papers
Link to RepEc profile and compilation of my working papers
The Global Financial Crisis, the Great Recession and the Recovery
- The Lost Decades: The Making of America’s Debt Crisis and the Long Recovery (W.W. Norton) (with Jeffry Frieden). [link]
- "Global Spillovers and Domestic Monetary Policy: The Impacts on Exchange Rates and Other Asset Prices," paper prepared for the 12th annual BIS Annual Conference, Luzern, 20-21 June 2013. [PDF]
- "Threats to the World Economy Remain: Prospects for Growth And Rebalancing," GlobalAsia 5(3) (Fall 2010) [link]
- "Rebalancing Global Growth," Ascent after Descent: Regrowing Economic Growth, edited by Otaviano Canuto (with Barry Eichengreen and Hiro Ito) [PDF].
- “The Global Economy: The Prospects for Imbalances, Overheating, and the Recovery,” Global Economic Crisis: Impacts, Transmission, and Recovery, edited by Maurice Obstfeld,
Dongyul Cho, Andrew Mason, Sang Hyop Lee (Korean Development Institute). [PDF].
- "Reflections on the Causes and Consequences of the Debt Crisis of 2008," La Follette Policy Report 19(1) (Fall 2009): 1-5 (with Jeffry Frieden). [PDF].
- "Evidence on Financial Globalization and Crises: Global Imbalances," Encyclopedia of Financial Globalization, edited by Gerard Caprio, et al. (Elsevier) [PDF].
Trade Flows and Current Account Balances
- "A Requiem for “Blame It on Beijing”: Interpreting Rotating Global Current Account Surpluses," mimeo, March 2019 (with Hiro Ito). [PDF] [PDF]
- "The Once and Future Global Imbalances? Interpreting the Post-Crisis Record," paper presented at KC Fed Jackson Hole Symposium "Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy," August 24-26, 2017. [PDF]
- "A Faith-based Initiative: Do We Really Know that a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Facilitates Current Account Adjustment," Review of Economics and Statistics (March 2013) (with Shang-Jin Wei) [PDF].
- "A Forensic Analysis of Global Imbalances," Oxford Economic Papers (2013), (March 2013 version) (with Barry Eichengreen and Hiro Ito). [PDF].
- "Getting Serious about the Twin Deficits," Special Council Report No. 10 (Council on Foreign Relations) [PDF].
- "Why the Deficits Matter," The International Economy (Summer 2006) (with Benn steil) [PDF].
- "Global Current Account Imbalances: American Fiscal Policy versus East Asian Savings," Review of International Economics 16(3) (2008), 479–498.(with Hiro Ito) [PDF].
- "Current Account Balances, Financial Development and Institutions: Assaying the World 'Saving Glut'," Journal of International Money and Finance 26(4) (June 2007): 546-569 [PDF]. Revision of NBER Working Paper No. 11761 (November 2005) (with Hiro Ito).
- "Three Current Account Balances: A 'Semi-Structuralist' Interpretation," mimeo (October 2007), forthcoming, Japan and the World Economy (with Jaewoo Lee) [PDF].
- "Supply Capacity, Vertical Specialization and Trade Costs: The Implications for Aggregate U.S. Trade Flow Equations," Mimeo June 11, 2010. [PDF]
- "Doomed to Deficits? Aggregate U.S. Trade Flows Re-examined," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv) 141(3) (2005).[PDF].
- "Incomes, Exchange Rates and the U.S. Trade Deficit, Once Again," International Finance 7:3 (Winter 2004). [PDF].
- "Current Account and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in the G-7 Countries," Journal of International Money and Finance 25 (March 2006): 257-274 (with Jaewoo Lee) [PDF]
- "Medium Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration," Journal of International Economics59(1) (January 2003). (with Eswar Prasad, IMF) [PDF]; revision of
NBER Working Paper 7581 (March 2000).
Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets
- “Central Banking: Perspectives from Emerging Economies,” On the Uses of Central Banks: Lessons from History, edited by Michael D. Bordo, Øyvind Eitrheim, Marc Flandreau and Jan F. Qvigstad (Norges Bank, 2016). [PDF]
The Trilemma, Capital Controls, Reserves and Financial Development
- "Financial Spillovers and Macroprudential Policies," mimeo (with Joshua Aizenman and Hiro Ito). Under revision. [PDF]
- "Balance Sheet Effects on Monetary and Financial Spillovers: The East Asian Crisis Plus 20," paper presented at JIMF-University of Tokyo Conference “The Pacific Rim and the Global Economy: Future Financial and Macro Challenges” July 25 and 26, 2016.(with Joshua Aizenman and Hiro Ito). [PDF]
- "Monetary Policy and the Trilemma in the New Normal," Journal of International Money and Finance 68 (2016) (with Joshua Aizenman and Hiro Ito). [PDF]
- "For a Few Dollars More: Reserves and Growth in Times of Crises," Journal of International Money and Finance 52 (2015) (with Matthieu Bussière, Gong Cheng, and Noëmie Lisack. [PDF]; NBER Working Paper No. 19791 (January 2014) [PDF]
- "Trilemma Configurations in Asia in an Era of Financial Globalization," China and Asia in the Global Economy, edited by Yin-Wong Cheung and Guonan Ma (World Scientific, 2011) (with Joshua Aizenman and Hiro Ito). [PDF]
- "Surfing the Waves of Globalization: Asia and Financial Globalization in the Context of the Trilemma," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 25: 290-320 (with Joshua Aizenman and Hiro Ito). [PDF].
- "Assessing the Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Measuring the Trilemma's Configurations over Time," NBER Working Paper No. 14533 (with Joshua Aizenman and Hiro Ito). [PDF] Shorter version: "The 'Impossible Trinity' Hypothesis in an Era of Global Imbalances:
Measurement and Testing," JIMF (2010) [PDF].
- "The Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Tracing and Evaluating the New Patterns of the Trilemma's Configurations," JIMF 29 (June 2010) (with Joshua Aizenman and Hiro Ito). [PDF].
- "The Euro and the Euro Area" paper presented at the IEFS panel at the 2006 ASSA. [PDF]
- "What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions," Journal of Development Economics 61(1) (October 2006): 163-192 (with Hiro Ito) [PDF].
- "A New Measure of Financial Openness," Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis 10(3) (September 2008): 307-320 (with Hiro Ito) [PDF].
Data: Chinn-Ito (2006) Financial Openness measure (data extending to 2008, updated July 2010) [Excel file] (7/10)
Notes to Chinn-Ito Financial Openness measure [PDF] (7/28/10). Chinn-Ito index used in World Bank, World Development Report 2009.
- Chinn-Ito capital account index webpage
- Aizenman-Chinn-Ito Trilemma indices webpage
- "Emerging Market Economies and the Next Reserve Currencies," Open Economies Review 26(1) (Feb. 2015). [PDF]
- "The Rise of the “Redback” and China’s Capital Account Liberalization: An Empirical Analysis on the Determinants of Invoicing Currencies," in Renminbi Internationalization: Achievements, Prospects, and Challenges, edited by Barry Eichengreen and Masahiro Kawai (Brookings Institution Press for ADBI, 2015) (with Hiro Ito). [PDF]
- "The Euro May over the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency," International Finance 11(1) (2008) (with Jeffrey Frankel) [PDF]. .
- "Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?" (with Jeffrey Frankel) [PDF] in "G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment," edited by Richard Clarida.. Cited in "Economics focus: Currency competition,"Economist (29 Sept 2005)
- Exchange Rate Prediction Redux: New Models, New Data, New Currencies," forthcoming Journal of International Money and Finance (with Yin-Wong Cheung, City University of Hong Kong; Antonio Garcia, Barclay's, and Yi Zhang, University of Wisconsin) [PDF].
- "Macro Approaches to Foreign Exchange Determination,"chapter in The Handbook of Exchange Rates, edited by Jessica James, Ian W. Marsh and Lucio Sarno (Wiley, 2012). [PDF]
- "Order Flow and the Monetary Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (with Michael M. Moore) [PDF]
- "Nonlinearities, Business Cycles and Exchange Rates," mimeo (August 2, 2008), Economic Notes [PDF].
- "Conventional and Unconventional Models Approaches to Exchange Rate Modeling and Assessment," (with Ron Alquist), International Journal of
Finance and Economy 13 (2008). [PDF].
- Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the 1990's: Are Any Fit to Survive?, Journal of International Money and Finance 24 (November 2005) (with Yin-Wong Cheung and
Antonio Garcia Pascual. [PDF]. Revised version of NBER Working Paper #9393 (Dec. 2002)
Powerpoint presentation [PDF]; Economist article citing the paper.
- Empirical Exchange Rate Economics: Estimation and Implications[PDF], manuscript forthcoming, Cambridge University
- "Real Exchange Rates," entry for The New Palgrave (edited by Steven Durlauf and Lawrence Blume). [PDF]
- "A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates: Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation," Open Economies Review 17: 115–143 (2006). [PDF]
- Research Summary: Explaining Exchange Rate Behavior NBER Reporter (Spring 2003). [PDF]
- "Market Structure and the Persistence of Sectoral Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity," International Journal of Finance and Economics 6(2) (April 2001) (with Yin-Wong Cheung and Eiji Fujii ). [PDF]
Also NBER Working Paper #7408
- "The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia-Pacific Real Exchange Rates," Review of International Economics 8(1)
(February 2000). [PDF]
- "Banking on Currency Forecasts: Is Change in Money Predictable?" Journal of International Economics38 (1-2) (February 1995): 161-78 (with Richard A. Meese) [PDF]
- "Some Linear and Nonlinear Thoughts on Exchange Rates," Journal of International Money and Finance10 (June 1991): 214-230. [PDF]
Macroeconomics, Finance, Futures
- "The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve across Countries and Time," International Finance (March 2015) [PDF] Also NBER Working Paper No. 16398 (Sept. 2010) (with Kavan Kucko). [PDF]
Data (Stata file): Chinn-Kucko data [please cite Chinn and Kucko as source if data is used] Cited in "Free Exchange: Bond yields reliably predict recessions. Why?"Economist (July 26, 2018)
- "Fiscal Multipliers," contribution to the New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics [PDF].
- "Post-recession US employment through the lens of a non-linear Okun’s law," Journal of Macroeconomics 42 (December 2014): 118–129, with Laurent Ferrara and Valérie Mignon. [PDF] data [XLS] RATS program
- "The Predictive Content of Commodity Futures," Journal of Futures Markets, July 2014 (with Olivier Coibion). [PDF]
- "Financing U.S. Debt: Is There Enough Money in the World – and At What Cost?" International Finance (2012) (with John Kitchen). [PDF]
- "The Predictive Content of Energy Futures: An Update on Petroleum, Natural Gas, Heating Oil an Gasoline," NBER Working Paper No. 11033, January 2005 (with Michael LeBlanc and Olivier Coibion). [PDF]
- "The Euro and the Euro Area" paper presented at the IEFS panel at the 2006 ASSA. [PDF]
- "Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence from G-5 Countries," Business Economics 39(2) (April 2004) (with Michael LeBlanc, primary author). [PDF]
- "Further Investigation of the Uncertain Unit Root in U.S. GNP," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 15(1) (Jan. 1997): 68-73.[PDF]
- "Deterministic, Stochastic, and Segmented Trends in Aggregate Output: A Cross-Country Perspective," Oxford Economic Papers 48(1) (Jan. 1996): 134-162. [PDF]
- "Tracking the State Economies at High Frequency: A Primer," Mimeo (August 2018) [PDF]
- "The Impact of Minimum Wage Legislation in Minnesota vs. Wisconsin: Contra Williams," Mimeo (November 2018), with Louis Johnston. [PDF]
International Digital Divide
- "ICT Use in the Developing World: An Analysis of Differences in Computer and Internet Penetration," Review of International Economics (with Rob Fairlie UCSC.) [PDF].
- "The Determinants of the Global Digital Divide: A Cross-Country Analysis of Computer and Internet Penetration," Oxford Economic Papers (December 2006) (with Rob Fairlie UCSC.) [PDF].
- "Assessing the Global Digital Divide," in the La Follette Policy Report 15(1) (Spring 2005) (with Rob Fairlie UCSC.). [PDF]
Financial Linkages and Financial Crises
- "The Euro Area and World Interest Rates" (with Jeffrey Frankel
revision of a paper presented at NY Fed conference on "Financial Globalization". [PDF]
- "A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets Over Time," Review of Economics and Statistics 86(3) (August 2004) (joint with Kristin Forbes) [PDF]. Revision of paper presented at Global Linkages conference (IMF, Wash., DC, Jan. 30-31, 2003).
- "Imperfect information, domestic regulation and financial crises" (with Ken Kletzer , UCSC),
in Reuven Glick, Ramon Moreno and Mark Spiegel (editors) Financial Crises in Emerging Markets (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001): 196-237. [PDF]
- "Before the Fall: Were East Asian Currencies Overvalued?" Emerging Markets Review1 (2) (Aug. 2000). [PDF], revision of NBER Working
Paper #6491 (August 1998).
- "Latin America and East Asia in the Context of an Insurance Model of Financial Crises" Journal of International Money and Finance18 (1999). [PDF].
- "Productivity and the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate Puzzle," Mimeo (Dec. 2002) (with Ron Alquist). [PDF]. Revision of NBER WP
- "The Empirical Determinants of the Euro: Short and Long Run Perspectives," Paper presented at the Deutsche Bundesbank workshop on Equilibrium Exchange Rates of the euro (March 27-28, 2000), organized by Bernd Schnatz. [PDF]
A nontechnical version of this paper: "Tracking the Euro's Progress," International Finance (November 2000) (with Ron Alquist). [PDF]
Interest Rate Parity and the Exchange Risk Premium
- "A Third of a Century of Currency Expectations Data: The Carry Trade and the Risk Premium," mimeo (January 6, 2019) (with Jeffrey Frankel).
- "The New Fama Puzzle," mimeo (February 2018) (with Matthieu Bussiere, Laurent Ferrara and Jonas Heipertz). [PDF]
- "Uncovered Interest Parity and Monetary Policy Near and Far from the Zero Lower Bound," Open Economies Review (September 21, 2015) (with Yi Zhang) [PDF] [presentation]
- "Long horizon uncovered interest parity re-assessed," mimeo (October 4, 2013) (with Saad Quayyum). [PDF]
- "Price-based Measurement of Financial Globalization: A Cross-Country Study of Interest Rate Parity," Pacific Economic Review 12(4) (2007):419-444 (with Hiro Ito). [PDF].
- "The (Partial) Rehabilitation of Interest Rate Parity in the Floating Rate Era: Longer Horizons, Alternative Expectations, and Emerging Markets," JIMF26 (2006): 7-21. [PDF]
- "Monetary Policy and Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity," IMF Staff Papers 51(3) (2004) [PDF], revision of NBER Working Paper #6797, November 1998 (with Guy Meredith) .
Econometric version available as "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity at Short and Long Horizons" mimeo (January 2005). [PDF].
Data used in Chinn-Meredith paper [Excel file]; Data Notes for Chinn & Meredith [PDF].
- "Interest Rate Parity," [PDF] and "Forward Premium Puzzle," [PDF] entries for Princeton Encyclopedia of the World Economy, edited by Kenneth Reinert and Ramkishen Rajan.
- "Free to Flow? New Results on Capital Mobility amongst the Developed countries," (August 2002) (with Rita Madarassy). [PDF]
- "Fin de Siecle Real Interest Parity," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 11(3-4) (September 2001) (with Eiji Fujii). [PDF]
- "More Survey Data on Exchange Rate Expectations: More Currencies, More Horizons, More Tests," (with Jeffrey Frankel ); in W. Allen and D. Dickinson (editors), Monetary Policy, Capital Flows and Financial Market
Developments in the Era of Financial Globalisation: Essays in Honour of Max Fry, (Routledge, 2002), pp. 145-67. [PDF]
China and East Asia
- "Estimating Currency Misalignment Using the Penn Effect: It’s Not As Simple As It Looks," forthcoming, International Finance (with Yin-Wong Cheung and Xin Nong). [PDF]
- "Global Supply Chains and Macroeconomic Relationships in Asia," in Asia and Global Production Networks: Implications for Trade, Incomes and Economic Vulnerability (Edward Elgar for for ADB, 2014). [PDF]
- "China-US Trade Flow Behavior: The Implications of Alternative Exchange Rate Measures and Trade Classifications," Review of World Economics (2015). [PDF]
- "Are Chinese Trade Flows Different?" JIMF (2012) (with Yin-Wong Cheung and Xingwang Qian). [PDF]
- "A Note on the Debate over Renminbi Undervaluation," China and Asia in the Global Economy, edited by Yin-Wong Cheung and Guonan Ma (World Scientific, 2011) (with Yin-Wong Cheung and Eiji Fujii). [PDF]
- "Measuring Misalignment: Latest Estimates for the Chinese Yuan," The US-Sino Currency Dispute: New Insights from Economics, Politics and Law , edited by Simon Evenett (April 2010) (with Yin-Wong Cheung , UCSC, and Eiji Fujii, Tsukuba Univ.). [PDF].
- "Introduction: The Symposium on 'China's Impact on the Global Economy," Pacific Economic Review 3 (2009) pp. 342–345. [PDF].
- "Pitfalls in Measuring Exchange Rate Misalignment: The Yuan and Other Currencies," mimeo (May 29, 2008), forthcoming Open Economies Review (with Yin-Wong Cheung , UCSC, and Eiji Fujii, Tsukuba Univ.). [PDF].
- "China's Current and Account and Exchange Rate," forthcoming in "China's Growing Role in World Trade," co-edited by Rob Feenstra and Shang-Jin Wei (with Yin-Wong Cheung , UCSC, and Eiji Fujii, Tsukuba Univ.). [PDF].
- "The Fog Encircling the Renminbi Debate," Singapore Economic Review 52(3) (with Yin-Wong Cheung , UCSC, and Eiji Fujii, Tsukuba Univ.). [PDF].
- "The Overvaluation of Renminbi Undervaluation," Journal of International Money and Finance (with Yin-Wong Cheung , UCSC, and Eiji Fujii, Tsukuba Univ.). [PDF].
- "The Illusion of Precision and the Role of the Renminbi in Regional Integration," Forthcoming in K. Hamada, B. Reszat and U. Volz (eds.),
Prospects for Monetary and Financial Integration in East Asia (with Yin-Wong Cheung , UCSC, and Eiji Fujii, Tsukuba Univ.). [PDF].
- "Macroeconomic Management and Financial Stability: The Implications for East Asia," paper presented at
OECD-PRI conference on "The Impact and Coherence of OECD Country Policies on Asian Developing Economies," Paris, June 10-11, 2004. [PDF]
- China's Economic Integration with Pacific Rim Economies, (Hong Kong Institute of Economics & Business Strategy, HK Univ. (with Yin-Wong Cheung and Eiji Fujii).
- "Dimensions of Financial Integration in Greater China: Money Markets, Banks and Policy Effects," International Journal of Finance and Economics 10(2) (April 2005) (with Yin-Wong Cheung , UCSC, and Eiji Fujii, Tsukuba Univ.). [PDF]
- "The Chinese Economies in Global Context: The Integration Process and Its Determinants," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 20(1) (2006) (with Yin-Wong Cheung , UCSC, and Eiji Fujii, Tsukuba Univ.). [PDF]
Surveys of Foreign Exchange Traders in the U.S. and the U.K.
- "Currency Traders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Survey of the U.S. Market," Journal of International Money and Finance 20(4) (August 2001) (with Yin-Wong Cheung).[PDF] Combined revision of NBER Working Papers #7416 and #7417.
- "How Do UK Foreign Exchange Dealers Think Their Market Operates?" International Journal of Finance and Economics 9: 289-306 (with Yin-Wong Cheung and Ian Marsh). [PDF] revision of CEPR Discussion Paper #2230 and NBER
Working Paper #7524
UW Madison Menzie David Chinn 15 April 2019