Published Papers

 All papers below are copyrighted by their publishers and are not to be reproduced without the permission of the publishers.

“Macroprudential Policy under High Capital Mobility: Policy Implications from an Academic Perspective.” Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 42, 162-172.


“International Coordination of Central Bank Policy.” Journal of International Money and Finance 67, October 2016, 13-24.


“Policy Cooperation, Incomplete Markets, and Risk Sharing,” IMF Economic Review 64, May 2016, 103-133.


“Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium,” and Appendix, American Economic Review 106, February 2016, 436-474.


“Exchange Rates and Interest Parity,” Handbook of International Economics 4, 2015, 453-522.


“Factor Model Forecasts of Exchange Rates,” (with Nelson C. Mark and Kenneth D. West) Econometric Reviews 34, issue 1/2, 2015, 32-55.


“Exchange Rate Stabilization and Welfare,” Annual Review of Economics 6, 2014, 155-177.


“Real Exchange Rate Adjustment in and out of the Eurozone,” (with Martin Berka and Michael B. Devereux) American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings 102, May 2012, 179-185.


“Currency Misalignments and Optimal Monetary Policy: A Reexamination,” and Appendix, American Economic Review 101, October 2011, 2796-2822. 

“International Trade in Durable Goods: Understanding Volatility, Cyclicality, and Elasticities,” (with Jian Wang), Journal of International Economics 83, January 2011, 37-52.

“Global Interest Rates, Currency Returns, and the Real Value of the Dollar,” (with Kenneth D. West), American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings 100, May 2010, 562-567.

“The International Diversification Puzzle When Prices are Sticky: It’s Really about Exchange-Rate Hedging not Equity Portfolios,” (with Akito Matsumoto) American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 1, July 2009, 155-188.

“Expected Consumption Growth from Cross-Country Surveys: Implications for Assessing International Capital Markets,” (with John H. Rogers) IMF Staff Papers 56, August 2009, 543-573.

“Expectations, Monetary Policy, and the Misalignment of Traded Goods Prices,” (with Michael B. Devereux) International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2007, 131-157.

“Exchange Rate Models Are Not as Bad as You Think,” (with Nelson C. Mark and Kenneth D. West) NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, 381-441.

“Expenditure Switching vs. Real Exchange Rate Stabilization: Competing Objectives for Exchange Rate Policy,” (with Michael B. Devereux), Journal of Monetary Economics 54, November 2007, 2346-2374.

"Equivalence Results for Optimal Pass-Through, Optimal Indexing to Exchange Rates, and Optimal Choice of Currency for Export Pricing," Journal of the European Economics Association 4, December 2006, 1249-1260.

"Taylor Rules and the Deutschemark-Dollar Real Exchange Rate," (with Kenneth D. West), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 38, August 2006, 1175-1194.

"The U.S. Current Account Deficit and the Expected Share of World Output," (with John H. Rogers), Journal of Monetary Economics 53, July 2006, 1063-1093.

"Some New Variance Bounds for Asset Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 37, October 2005, 949-955.

"Canada's Exchange Rate: New Evidence, a Simple Model, and Policy Implications," in Canada in the Global Economy: Proceedings of a Conference Held by the Bank of Canada, 2005 (Bank of Canada), 341-367.

"Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," (with Kenneth D. West),  Journal of Political Economy 113, June 2005, 485-517.

"Revisiting the Border: An Assessment of the Law of One Price Using Very Disaggregated Consumer Price Data," (with John H. Rogers and Shing-Yi Wang) in Exchange Rates, Capital Flows and Policy, Rebecca Driver, Peter Sinclair, and Christoph Thoenissen, eds., 2005, (London: Routledge), 187-203.

"Does 'Aggregation Bias' Explain the PPP Puzzle?" (with Shiu-Sheng Chen),  Pacific Economic Review 10, February 2005, 49-72.

"European Market Integration After the Euro," (with John H. Rogers), Economic Policy 19, July 2004, 347-384.

"Endogenous Exchange Rate Pass-Through when Nominal Prices are Set in Advance" (with Michael B. Devereux and Peter E. Storgaard), Journal of International Economics 63, July 2004, 263-291.

"Accounting for Exchange Rate Variability in Present Value Models when the Discount Factor is Near One," (with Kenneth D. West),  American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings 94, May 2004, 119-125.

"Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revisited: Exchange Rate Flexibility and Price Setting Behavior," and Appendix (with Michael B. Devereux), Review of Economic Studies 70, October 2003, 765-783. 

"Expenditure Switching and Exchange Rate Policy,"  NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, no. 17, 231-272.

"Exchange Rate Pass-through and the Welfare Effects of the Euro," (with Michael B. Devereux and Cedric Tille) International Economic Review 44, February 2003, 223-242.

"Currency Unions and International Integration" (with Andrew K. Rose), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 34, November 2002, 1067-1089.

"Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Exchange Rate Volatility, and Exchange Rate Disconnect," (with Michael B. Devereux), Journal of Monetary Economics, June 2002, 913-940.

"The Responsiveness of Consumer Prices to Exchange Rates: A Synthesis of Some New Open-Economy Macro Models," The Manchester School 70, Supplement 2002, 1-15, 

"Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity: Causes and Welfare Costs," (with John H. Rogers), Journal of International Economics 55, October 2001, 29-57.

"Optimal Exchange Rate Policy: The Influence of Price Setting and Asset Markets" , Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 33, May 2001, 518-541.

"Violating the Law of One Price: Should We Make a Federal Case Out of It?" (with John H. Rogers), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 33, February 2001, 1-15.

"The Optimal Choice of Exchange-Rate Regime: Price-Setting Rules and Internationalized Production," (with Michael B. Devereux)  in Topics in Empirical International Economics: Festschrift in Honor of Robert Lipsey, Magnus Blomstrom and Linda Goldberg, eds., 2001 (NBER and University of Chicago Press) 163-189.

"Long-Run PPP May Not Hold After All," Journal of International Economics 51, August 2000, 243-273.

"Local-Currency Pricing and the Choice of Exchange-Rate Regime," European Economic Review 44, August 2000, 1149-1472.

"Relative Price Volatility: What Role Does the Border Play?" (with John H. Rogers) in Intranational Macroeconomics, Gregory Hess and Eric van Wincoop, eds., 2000, (Cambridge University Press), 92-111.

"On the Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in Sticky-Price General Equilibrium Models," in International Tax and Public Finance 6, November 1999, 491-505.  Also in International Finance and Financial Crises: Essays in Honor of Robert P. Flood, Peter Isard, Assaf Razin and Andrew Rose, eds., 1999, (IMF and Kluwer), pages 71-85. 

"The Long-Run U.S./U.K. Real Exchange Rate," (with Chang-Jin Kim), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 31, August 1999, 335-355.  Unpublished appendix here.

"Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Journal of Political Economy 107, June 1999, 507-538.

"Rent Sharing, Aggregate Saving and Growth," Review of Development Economics 2, June 1998, 107-122.

"Intra-National, Intra-Continental and Intra-Planetary PPP," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 11, December 1997, 480-501.

"How Wide is the Border?" (with John H. Rogers) American Economic Review 86, December 1996, 1112-1125.

"A Note on Cointegration and International Capital Market Efficiency," Journal of International Money and Finance 15, August 1996, 657-660.

"The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence,"  Journal of Empirical Finance 3, June 1996, 123-192.

"The Distribution of the Exchange Rate in the EMS," (with Craig S. Hakkio), International Journal of Finance and Economics 1, January 1996, 55-67.

"Tests of Conditional Mean-Variance Efficiency of the U.S. Stock Market," (with Jeffrey A. Frankel, Kenneth Froot, and Anthony P. Rodrigues) Journal of Empirical Finance 2, March 1995, 3-18.

"Can the Markov-Switching Model Forecast Exchange Rates?" Journal of International Economics 36, February 1994, 151-165.

"Real Exchange Rates and Relative Prices: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics 32, August 1993, 35-50.

"Tests of Mean-Variance Efficiency of International Equity Markets," (with Anthony P. Rodrigues) Oxford Economic Papers 45, July 1993, 403-421.

"The Risk Premium and the Liquidity Premium in Foreign Exchange Markets," International Economic Review 33, November 1992, 871-879.

"On the Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in a General Equilibrium Model," Journal of International Economics 32, May 1992, 305-319.

"Trade Policy Under Endogenous Credibility," (with Kenneth M. Kletzer) Journal of Development Economics 36, October 1991, 213-228.

"Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?" (with James D. Hamilton) American Economic Review 80, September 1990, 689-713.

"Tariffs and Saving in a Model with New Generations," (with Kenneth M. Kletzer) Journal of International Economics 28, February 1990, 71-91.

"Saving and Investment in an Open Economy with Non-Traded Goods," (with Kenneth M. Kletzer) International Economic Review 30, November 1989, 735-752.

"Tests of International CAPM with Time-Varying Covariances," (with Anthony P. Rodrigues) Journal of Applied Econometrics 4, April-June 1989, 119-138.

"The Trade Balance and the Real Exchange Rate under Currency Substitution," Journal of International Money and Finance 8, March 1989, 47-58.

"The International Monetary System: Forty Years after Bretton Woods: Review Essay," Journal of Monetary Economics 17, May 1986, 441-448.

"On the Correlation of Interest Rates and Exchange Rates," Journal of International Money and Finance 5, March 1986, 125-128.

"Reliability of Policy Announcements and the Effects of Monetary Policy," European Economic Review 29, 1985, 137-155.

"Exchange Rate Dynamics, Sticky Prices, and the Current Account," (with Robert P. Flood) Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 17, August 1985, 312-327.

"Testing for the Absence of Expected Real Profits from Forward Market Speculation," Journal of International Economics 17, November 1984, 299-308.

"Do Asset Demand Functions Optimize over the Mean and Variance of Real Returns? A Six-Currency Test," (with Jeffrey A. Frankel) Journal of International Economics 17, November 1984, 309-323.

"The Secular Inflation Term in Open-Economy Phillips Curves," (with Jeffrey A. Frankel) European Economic Review 24, March 1984, 161-164.

"Why Interest Rates React to Money Announcements: An Explanation from the Foreign Exchange Market," (with Jeffrey A. Frankel) Journal of Monetary Economics 13, January 1984, 31-39.