Published Papers

 All papers below are copyrighted by their publishers and are not to be reproduced without the permission of the publishers.


Safe U.S. Assets and U.S. Capital Flows Journal of International Money and Finance 102, April 2020, 1-13.


Implementable Rules for International Policy Coordination (with Michael B. Devereux and Giovanni Lombardo) IMF Economic Review 68, March 2020, 108-162. 


The Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Puzzle, Exchange Rate Forecasting, and Taylor Rules (with Dohyeon Lee, Chang Liu, Chenxin Liu, and Steve Pak Yeung Wu) Journal of International Money and Finance 95, July 2019, 317-331


Real Exchange Rate Convergence: The Roles of Price Stickiness and Monetary Policy  and Appendix. Journal of Monetary Economics 103, May 2019, 21-32.


Real Exchange Rates and Sectoral Productivity in the Eurozone (with Martin Berka and Michael B. Devereux) American Economic Review 108, June 2018, 1543-1581.


Macroprudential Policy under High Capital Mobility: Policy Implications from an Academic Perspective Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 42, December 2016, 162-172.


International Coordination of Central Bank Policy Journal of International Money and Finance 67, October 2016, 13-24.


Policy Cooperation, Incomplete Markets, and Risk Sharing IMF Economic Review 64, May 2016, 103-133.


Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium and Appendix, American Economic Review 106, February 2016, 436-474.


Exchange Rates and Interest Parity Handbook of International Economics 4, 2015, 453-522.


Factor Model Forecasts of Exchange Rates (with Nelson C. Mark and Kenneth D. West) Econometric Reviews 34, issue 1/2, 2015, 32-55.


Exchange Rate Stabilization and Welfare Annual Review of Economics 6, 2014, 155-177.


Real Exchange Rate Adjustment in and out of the Eurozone (with Martin Berka and Michael B. Devereux) American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings 102, May 2012, 179-185.


Currency Misalignments and Optimal Monetary Policy: A Reexamination and Appendix, American Economic Review 101, October 2011, 2796-2822. 

International Trade in Durable Goods: Understanding Volatility, Cyclicality, and Elasticities (with Jian Wang), Journal of International Economics 83, January 2011, 37-52.

Global Interest Rates, Currency Returns, and the Real Value of the Dollar (with Kenneth D. West), American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings 100, May 2010, 562-567.

The International Diversification Puzzle When Prices are Sticky: It's Really about Exchange-Rate Hedging not Equity Portfolios (with Akito Matsumoto) American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 1, July 2009, 155-188.

Expected Consumption Growth from Cross-Country Surveys: Implications for Assessing International Capital Markets (with John H. Rogers) IMF Staff Papers 56, August 2009, 543-573.

Expectations, Monetary Policy, and the Misalignment of Traded Goods Prices (with Michael B. Devereux) International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2007, 131-157.

Exchange Rate Models Are Not as Bad as You Think (with Nelson C. Mark and Kenneth D. West) NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, 381-441.

Expenditure Switching vs. Real Exchange Rate Stabilization: Competing Objectives for Exchange Rate Policy (with Michael B. Devereux), Journal of Monetary Economics 54, November 2007, 2346-2374.

"Equivalence Results for Optimal Pass-Through, Optimal Indexing to Exchange Rates, and Optimal Choice of Currency for Export Pricing," Journal of the European Economics Association 4, December 2006, 1249-1260.

"Taylor Rules and the Deutschemark-Dollar Real Exchange Rate," (with Kenneth D. West), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 38, August 2006, 1175-1194.

"The U.S. Current Account Deficit and the Expected Share of World Output," (with John H. Rogers), Journal of Monetary Economics 53, July 2006, 1063-1093.

"Some New Variance Bounds for Asset Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 37, October 2005, 949-955.

"Canada's Exchange Rate: New Evidence, a Simple Model, and Policy Implications," in Canada in the Global Economy: Proceedings of a Conference Held by the Bank of Canada, 2005 (Bank of Canada), 341-367.

"Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," (with Kenneth D. West),  Journal of Political Economy 113, June 2005, 485-517.

"Revisiting the Border: An Assessment of the Law of One Price Using Very Disaggregated Consumer Price Data," (with John H. Rogers and Shing-Yi Wang) in Exchange Rates, Capital Flows and Policy, Rebecca Driver, Peter Sinclair, and Christoph Thoenissen, eds., 2005, (London: Routledge), 187-203.

"Does 'Aggregation Bias' Explain the PPP Puzzle?" (with Shiu-Sheng Chen),  Pacific Economic Review 10, February 2005, 49-72.

"European Market Integration After the Euro," (with John H. Rogers), Economic Policy 19, July 2004, 347-384.

"Endogenous Exchange Rate Pass-Through when Nominal Prices are Set in Advance" (with Michael B. Devereux and Peter E. Storgaard), Journal of International Economics 63, July 2004, 263-291.

"Accounting for Exchange Rate Variability in Present Value Models when the Discount Factor is Near One," (with Kenneth D. West),  American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings 94, May 2004, 119-125.

"Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revisited: Exchange Rate Flexibility and Price Setting Behavior," and Appendix (with Michael B. Devereux), Review of Economic Studies 70, October 2003, 765-783. 

"Expenditure Switching and Exchange Rate Policy,"  NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, no. 17, 231-272.

"Exchange Rate Pass-through and the Welfare Effects of the Euro," (with Michael B. Devereux and Cedric Tille) International Economic Review 44, February 2003, 223-242.

"Currency Unions and International Integration" (with Andrew K. Rose), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 34, November 2002, 1067-1089.

"Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Exchange Rate Volatility, and Exchange Rate Disconnect," (with Michael B. Devereux), Journal of Monetary Economics, June 2002, 913-940.

"The Responsiveness of Consumer Prices to Exchange Rates: A Synthesis of Some New Open-Economy Macro Models," The Manchester School 70, Supplement 2002, 1-15, 

"Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity: Causes and Welfare Costs," (with John H. Rogers), Journal of International Economics 55, October 2001, 29-57.

"Optimal Exchange Rate Policy: The Influence of Price Setting and Asset Markets" , Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 33, May 2001, 518-541.

"Violating the Law of One Price: Should We Make a Federal Case Out of It?" (with John H. Rogers), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 33, February 2001, 1-15.

"The Optimal Choice of Exchange-Rate Regime: Price-Setting Rules and Internationalized Production," (with Michael B. Devereux)  in Topics in Empirical International Economics: Festschrift in Honor of Robert Lipsey, Magnus Blomstrom and Linda Goldberg, eds., 2001 (NBER and University of Chicago Press) 163-189.

"Long-Run PPP May Not Hold After All," Journal of International Economics 51, August 2000, 243-273.

"Local-Currency Pricing and the Choice of Exchange-Rate Regime," European Economic Review 44, August 2000, 1149-1472.

"Relative Price Volatility: What Role Does the Border Play?" (with John H. Rogers) in Intranational Macroeconomics, Gregory Hess and Eric van Wincoop, eds., 2000, (Cambridge University Press), 92-111.

"On the Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in Sticky-Price General Equilibrium Models," in International Tax and Public Finance 6, November 1999, 491-505.  Also in International Finance and Financial Crises: Essays in Honor of Robert P. Flood, Peter Isard, Assaf Razin and Andrew Rose, eds., 1999, (IMF and Kluwer), pages 71-85. 

"The Long-Run U.S./U.K. Real Exchange Rate," (with Chang-Jin Kim), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 31, August 1999, 335-355.  Unpublished appendix here.

"Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Journal of Political Economy 107, June 1999, 507-538.

"Rent Sharing, Aggregate Saving and Growth," Review of Development Economics 2, June 1998, 107-122.

"Intra-National, Intra-Continental and Intra-Planetary PPP," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 11, December 1997, 480-501.

"How Wide is the Border?" (with John H. Rogers) American Economic Review 86, December 1996, 1112-1125.

"A Note on Cointegration and International Capital Market Efficiency," Journal of International Money and Finance 15, August 1996, 657-660.

"The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence,"  Journal of Empirical Finance 3, June 1996, 123-192.

"The Distribution of the Exchange Rate in the EMS," (with Craig S. Hakkio), International Journal of Finance and Economics 1, January 1996, 55-67.

"Tests of Conditional Mean-Variance Efficiency of the U.S. Stock Market," (with Jeffrey A. Frankel, Kenneth Froot, and Anthony P. Rodrigues) Journal of Empirical Finance 2, March 1995, 3-18.

"Can the Markov-Switching Model Forecast Exchange Rates?" Journal of International Economics 36, February 1994, 151-165.

"Real Exchange Rates and Relative Prices: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics 32, August 1993, 35-50.

"Tests of Mean-Variance Efficiency of International Equity Markets," (with Anthony P. Rodrigues) Oxford Economic Papers 45, July 1993, 403-421.

"The Risk Premium and the Liquidity Premium in Foreign Exchange Markets," International Economic Review 33, November 1992, 871-879.

"On the Foreign Exchange Risk Premium in a General Equilibrium Model," Journal of International Economics 32, May 1992, 305-319.

"Trade Policy Under Endogenous Credibility," (with Kenneth M. Kletzer) Journal of Development Economics 36, October 1991, 213-228.

"Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?" (with James D. Hamilton) American Economic Review 80, September 1990, 689-713.

"Tariffs and Saving in a Model with New Generations," (with Kenneth M. Kletzer) Journal of International Economics 28, February 1990, 71-91.

"Saving and Investment in an Open Economy with Non-Traded Goods," (with Kenneth M. Kletzer) International Economic Review 30, November 1989, 735-752.

"Tests of International CAPM with Time-Varying Covariances," (with Anthony P. Rodrigues) Journal of Applied Econometrics 4, April-June 1989, 119-138.

"The Trade Balance and the Real Exchange Rate under Currency Substitution," Journal of International Money and Finance 8, March 1989, 47-58.

"The International Monetary System: Forty Years after Bretton Woods: Review Essay," Journal of Monetary Economics 17, May 1986, 441-448.

"On the Correlation of Interest Rates and Exchange Rates," Journal of International Money and Finance 5, March 1986, 125-128.

"Reliability of Policy Announcements and the Effects of Monetary Policy," European Economic Review 29, 1985, 137-155.

"Exchange Rate Dynamics, Sticky Prices, and the Current Account," (with Robert P. Flood) Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 17, August 1985, 312-327.

"Testing for the Absence of Expected Real Profits from Forward Market Speculation," Journal of International Economics 17, November 1984, 299-308.

"Do Asset Demand Functions Optimize over the Mean and Variance of Real Returns? A Six-Currency Test," (with Jeffrey A. Frankel) Journal of International Economics 17, November 1984, 309-323.

"The Secular Inflation Term in Open-Economy Phillips Curves," (with Jeffrey A. Frankel) European Economic Review 24, March 1984, 161-164.

"Why Interest Rates React to Money Announcements: An Explanation from the Foreign Exchange Market," (with Jeffrey A. Frankel) Journal of Monetary Economics 13, January 1984, 31-39.