Bruce E. Hansen

"Non-Parametric Dependent Data Bootstrap for Conditional Moment Models"

September 1999 (Preliminary and Incomplete)


A new non-parametric bootstrap is introduced for dependent data. The bootstrap is based on a weighted empirical-likelihood estimate of the one-step-ahead conditional distribution, imposing the conditional moment restrictions implied by the model. This is the first dependent-data bootstrap procedure which imposes conditional moment restrictions on a bootstrap distribution. The method can be applied to form confidence intervals and p-values from hypothesis tests in Generalized Method of Moments estimation The bootstrap method is illustrated with an application to autoregressive models with martingale difference errors.

This paper was presented at the 2000 World Congress Meetings in Seattle, Washington.

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Some of the above material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grants No. SES-9022176, SES-9120576, SBR-9412339, and SBR-9807111. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the views of the NSF.