Economics 310 Economic Statistics: Measurement in Economics

This site provides resources for students in Economics 310 at the University of Wisconsin, Madison for Spring 2004 Semester

Instructor
Professor Menzie Chinn
Office Hours: M 4-6 (subject to revision)
Office: 7418 Social Sciences Bldg.
Phone: (608) 262-7397
email: mchinn@lafollette.wisc.edu
Home Page

Teaching Assistants
Kun Huang
Email: kunhuang@wisc.edu

Isil Ozturk
Email: eiozturk@wisc.edu

Shiv Saini
Email: sksaini@wisc.edu

Course Syllabus

Economics 310 is a course in probability and statistics with applications to economic and business problems. Much of applied economics is empirical in nature; hence, the understanding and application of statistical reasoning is key. We will also devote some time to regression analysis, the primary means by which economists measure the strength of economic relationships (e.g., price elasticities, the marginal propensity to consume, etc.).

The textbook is McClave, Benson and Sincich, Statistics for Business and Economics 8th Edition (Prentice-Hall, 2001). available at the University Bookstore.

Grading will be based upon five problem sets (20%), two midterms (40%) and one comprehensive final (40%).

Important Dates

• Midterm I: Wednesday, March 3. Bring your Student ID card for verification purposes
• Midterm II: Monday, April 5 Bring your Student ID card for verification purposes
• Lecture cancelled on Monday, April 26.
• Review Section: Saturday, May 8, 2:45 6104 Social Sciences.
• Final Exam: Monday, May 10, 7:45AM NOTE CHANGE OF TIME in 165 Bascom. No notes, calculators, cell phones allowed.

Course Materials and Sources of Economic Information

Downloadable Course Materials

• Fall 2003 Ec 310 web page
• Problem Set 1 due Wednesday (not Monday) 11 February.
• Macro example of Conditional Probabilities (2/4/04)
• Problem Set 1 Answers (revised 2/16, 3/1)
• "Economics Focus: Reserve Army," Economist 12 Feb(lecture of 2/16/04) and graph: Payroll vs. Household Employment Numbers
• Problem Set 2 due Wednesday 25 February.
• FALL 2003 Midterm 1
• Problem Set 2 Answers (revised Z.3.b on 3/1).
• Assessing Normality (2/25/04)
• Midterm 1 Answer Key
• Midterm 1 Statistics and Grade Curve
• Problem Set 3 due Monday 29 March.
• FALL 2003 Midterm 2
• Problem Set 3 Answers
• Midterm 2 Answer Key
• Midterm 2 Statistics and Grade Curve (rev'd 4/7)
• Problem Set 4 due Monday April 19.
• Problem Set 4 Answer Key
• Example of Simple Regression Application: Oil and Gasoline Prices (rev'd)
• Problem Set 5 due Monday May 3.
• Prediction and Multiple Regression circulated on 4/28.
• FALL 2003 Final Exam.
• Formulas provided with Final Exam (Approximate only).
• Problem Set 5 Answers.
• Higher Order Models and Dummy Variables circulated 5/5.

Other

Data Sources

• White House Economic Briefing Room Contains current economic data.
• Bureau of Economic Analysis, Dept. of Commerce Data on GDP and components (the national income and product accounts) as well as other macroeconomic data.
• Bureau of the Census, Dept. of Commerce Data on the characteristics of the US population as well as of US firms.
• Bureau of Labor Statistics, Dept. of Labor Data on wages, prices, productivity, and employment and unemployment rates.
• Energy Information Agency, Dept. of Energy Data on on energy (electricity, gas, petroleum) production, consumption and prices.
• Statistical Abstract of the US A compilation of statistics about the US, from government and nongovernment sources.
• Conference Board's Indices of Leading Indicators Measures that are supposed to predict future economic activity.
• University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment Survey based measures of consumer sentiment.
• Economic Report of the President, various years. The back portion of this annual publication contains about 70 tables of government economic data.
• St. Louis Fed economic database Thousands of time series on economic activity, in an easily downloadable form.
• Economic Time Series page A large collection of economic time series.
• NBER Data Specialized economic databases created by economists associated with the National Bureau of Economic Research.
• NBER Macrohistorical database Historical macroeconomic data.
• Federal Reserve Board data Monetary, financial and output data collected by the Nation's central bank.
• Penn World Tables Annual GDP and other data for over a hundred countries, expressed in dollars, after adjusting for differing price levels.

Statistics related articles of current interest

• Brad Delong's Blog article using statistical theory to determine whether Bill Bennett could have possibly "broken even" gambling all those years.
• Who Wins and Who Loses if the Dollar Keeps Falling? NYT Oct. 14, 2003 Exploiting correlations between stock, bond prices and exchange rates.
• "Economics focus: Soft science no more," Economist (Oct. 9, 2003). (Nobel prize in economics for Granger and Engle)
• "Economics focus: Signifying nothing? Too many economists misuse statistics," Economist (Jan. 29, 2004).

Other