Economics 310 Economic Statistics: Measurement in Economics

This site provides resources for students in Economics 310 at the University of Wisconsin, Madison for Fall 2004 Semester

Instructor
Professor Menzie Chinn
Office Hours: M4-6
Office: 7418 Social Sciences Bldg.
Phone: (608) 262-7397
email: mchinn@lafollette.wisc.edu
Home Page

Teaching Assistants

Course Syllabus

Economics 310 is a course in probability and statistics with applications to economic and business problems. Much of applied economics is empirical in nature; hence, the understanding and application of statistical reasoning is key. We will also devote some time to regression analysis, the primary means by which economists measure the strength of economic relationships (e.g., price elasticities, the marginal propensity to consume, etc.).

The textbook is McClave, Benson and Sincich, Statistics for Business and Economics 9th Edition (Prentice-Hall, 2004). available at the University Bookstore.

Grading will be based upon five problem sets (20%), two midterms (40%) and one comprehensive final (40%).

Important Dates

• Midterm I: Monday, October 18. Bring your Student ID card for verification purposes
• Midterm II: Monday, November 15. Bring your Student ID card for verification purposes
• Final Exam: Monday, Dec. 20, 10:05, Social Sciences 5206. Bring your Student ID card for verification purposes

Course Materials and Sources of Economic Information

Downloadable Course Materials

• Spring 2004 Ec 310 web page
• Problem Set 1 due 9/27.
• Handout for Sept. 22-24 (corrected).
• Problem Set 1 answer key due 9/27.
• Problem Set 2 due 10/13.
• Spring 2004 Midterm 1
• Problem Set 2 answer key
• Handout of October 13: Assessing Normality
• Handout of October 13: Using Normal Tables (Oil Prices)
• Midterm 1 Statistics/Grading
• Midterm 1 Answer key
• Problem Set 3 due 11/8.
• Problem Set 3 Answer Key (Rev'd 11/11)
• Spring 2004 Midterm 2
• Midterm 2 Answer key
• Midterm 2 Statistics/Grading rev'd 12/16
• Problem Set 4 due 12/1.
• Problem Set 4 Answer Key .
• Example of Simple Regression: Oil and Gasoline Prices
• Problem Set 5 due 12/15.
• Notes on Prediction and Multiple Regression
• Spring 2004 Final Exam.
• Example of Higher Order Terms, Interactions and Dummy Variables: Oil and Gasoline Prices
• Problem Set 5 Answers.

Statistics related articles of current interest

• Washington Post Presidential Tracking Poll results.
• Ritholz's "The Big Picture". This website provides polling data on the Presidential Election
• Time series on various polls of Bush Approval Ratings.
• Ray C. Fair's Presidential voting model. A statistical model of the popular vote, using economic and political factors as determinants.
• Brad Delong's Blog article using statistical theory to determine whether Bill Bennett could have possibly "broken even" gambling all those years.
• "Economics focus: Soft science no more," Economist (Oct. 9, 2003). (Nobel prize in economics for Granger and Engle)
• "Economics focus: Signifying nothing? Too many economists misuse statistics," Economist (Jan. 29, 2004). >

Data Sources

• White House Economic Briefing Room Contains current economic data.
• Bureau of Economic Analysis, Dept. of Commerce Data on GDP and components (the national income and product accounts) as well as other macroeconomic data.
• Bureau of the Census, Dept. of Commerce Data on the characteristics of the US population as well as of US firms.
• Bureau of Labor Statistics, Dept. of Labor Data on wages, prices, productivity, and employment and unemployment rates.
• Energy Information Agency, Dept. of Energy Data on on energy (electricity, gas, petroleum) production, consumption and prices.
• Statistical Abstract of the US A compilation of statistics about the US, from government and nongovernment sources.
• Conference Board's Indices of Leading Indicators Measures that are supposed to predict future economic activity.
• University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment Survey based measures of consumer sentiment.
• Economic Report of the President, various years. The back portion of this annual publication contains about 70 tables of government economic data.
• St. Louis Fed economic database Thousands of time series on economic activity, in an easily downloadable form.
• Economic Time Series page A large collection of economic time series.
• NBER Data Specialized economic databases created by economists associated with the National Bureau of Economic Research.
• NBER Macrohistorical database Historical macroeconomic data.
• Federal Reserve Board data Monetary, financial and output data collected by the Nation's central bank.
• Penn World Tables Annual GDP and other data for over a hundred countries, expressed in dollars, after adjusting for differing price levels.

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