The Global Financial and Economic Crisis

• Menzie Chinn and Jeffry Frieden, "Reflections on the Causes and Consequences of the Debt Crisis of 2008," La Follette Policy Report 19(1) (Fall 2009): 1-5. [pdf].

Trade Flows and Current Account Balances

• "A Faith-based Initiative: Do We Really Know that a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Facilitates Current Account Adjustment," mimeo (with Shang-Jin Wei) [PDF].
• "Getting Serious about the Twin Deficits," Special Council Report No. 10 (Council on Foreign Relations) [PDF].
• "Why the Deficits Matter," The International Economy (Summer 2006) (with Benn steil) [PDF] .
• "Global Current Account Imbalances: American Fiscal Policy versus East Asian Savings," Review of International Economics 16(3) (2008), 479–498.(with Hiro Ito) [PDF].
• "Current Account Balances, Financial Development and Institutions: Assaying the World 'Saving Glut'," Journal of International Money and Finance 26(4) (June 2007): 546-569 [pdf]. Revision of NBER Working Paper No. 11761 (November 2005) (with Hiro Ito).
• "Three Current Account Balances: A 'Semi-Structuralist' Interpretation," mimeo (October 2007), forthcoming, Japan and the World Economy (with Jaewoo Lee) [PDF].
• "Supply Capacity, Vertical Specialization and Tariff Rates: The Implications for Aggregate U.S. Trade Flow Equations," Mimeo May 26, 2007. [PDF]
• "Doomed to Deficits? Aggregate U.S. Trade Flows Re-examined," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv) 141(3) (2005).[PDF].
• "Incomes, Exchange Rates and the U.S. Trade Deficit, Once Again," International Finance 7:3 (Winter 2004). [PDF].
• "Current Account and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in the G-7 Countries," Journal of International Money and Finance 25 (March 2006): 257-274 (with Jaewoo Lee) [PDF]
• "Medium Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries: An Empirical Exploration," Journal of International Economics59(1) (January 2003). (with Eswar Prasad, IMF) [PDF]; revision of NBER Working Paper 7581 (March 2000).

The Trilemma, the Dollar as a Reserve Currency, Capital Controls and Financial Development

• "Assessing the Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Measuring the Trilemma's Configurations over Time," NBER Working Paper No. 14533 (with Joshua Aizenman and Hiro Ito). [pdf].
• "The Euro May over the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency," International Finance 11(1) (2008) (with Jeffrey Frankel) [PDF].
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• "Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?" (with Jeffrey Frankel) [PDF] in "G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment," edited by Richard Clarida.. Presentation Cited in "Economics focus: Currency competition,"Economist (29 Sept 2005)
• "The Euro and the Euro Area" paper presented at the IEFS panel at the 2006 ASSA. [PDF]
• "What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions," Journal of Development Economics 61(1) (October 2006): 163-192 (with Hiro Ito) [PDF].
• "A New Measure of Financial Openness," Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis 10(3) (September 2008): 307-320 (with Hiro Ito) [PDF]. Data: Chinn-Ito (2006) Financial Openness measure (data extending to 2007, updated February 2009) [Excel file] (2/3/09) Notes to Chinn-Ito Financial Openness measure [PDF] (2/3/09). Chinn-Ito index used in World Bank, World Development Report 2009.

Exchange Rates

• Research Summary: Explaining Exchange Rate Behavior NBER Reporter (Spring 2003). [PDF]
• "Nonlinearities, Business Cycles and Exchange Rates," mimeo (August 2, 2008), forthcoming Economic Notes [PDF].
• "Private Information and the Monetary Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set," (with Michael M. Moore), revision of paper presented at "IMF Conference on International Macro-Finance" Washington, DC, April 24-25, 2008 [PDF].
• "Conventional and Unconventional Models Approaches to Exchange Rate Modeling and Assessment," (with Ron Alquist), International Journal of Finance and Economy 13 (2008); also paper presented at ECB-Bank of Canada workshop on "Exchange rate determinants and impacts," Frankfurt, Dec. 6-7, 2005, revised version at HKMA-IJFE conference (Hong Kong, July) [PDF].
• Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the 1990's: Are Any Fit to Survive?, Journal of International Money and Finance 24 (November 2005) (with Yin-Wong Cheung , UCSC, and Antonio Garcia, IMF) [PDF]. Revised version of NBER Working Paper #9393 (Dec. 2002) Powerpoint presentation [PDF]; Economist article citing the paper.
• Empirical Exchange Rate Economics: Estimation and Implications[PDF], manuscript forthcoming, Cambridge University Press.
• "Real Exchange Rates," entry for The New Palgrave (edited by Steven Durlauf and Lawrence Blume). [PDF]
• "A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates: Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation," Open Economies Review 17: 115–143 (2006). [PDF]
• "Market Structure and the Persistence of Sectoral Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity," International Journal of Finance and Economics 6(2) (April 2001) (with Yin-Wong Cheung and Eiji Fujii ). [PDF] Also NBER Working Paper #7408
• "The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia-Pacific Real Exchange Rates," Review of International Economics 8(1) (February 2000). [PDF]
• "Banking on Currency Forecasts: Is Change in Money Predictable?" Journal of International Economics38 (1-2) (February 1995): 161-78 (with Richard A. Meese)[PDF]
• "Some Linear and Nonlinear Thoughts on Exchange Rates," Journal of International Money and Finance10 (June 1991): 214-230. [PDF]

Macroeconomics, Finance, Futures

• "The Predictive Content of Commodity Futures," mimeo, October 2009 (with Olivier Coibion). [PDF]
• "The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve across Countries and Time," paper presented for 10th EABCN Workshop on Uncertainty over the Business Cycle, Frankfurt 3/30-31 (with Kavan Kucko, primary author). [PDF]
• "Do High Oil Prices Presage Inflation? The Evidence from G-5 Countries," Business Economics 39(2) (April 2004) (with Michael LeBlanc, primary author).[PDF]
• "The Predictive Content of Energy Futures: An Update on Petroleum, Natural Gas, Heating Oil an Gasoline," NBER Working Paper No. 11033, January 2005 (with Michael LeBlanc and Olivier Coibion). [PDF]

International Digital Divide

• "ICT Use in the Developing World: An Analysis of Differences in Computer and Internet Penetration," forthcoming, Review of International Economics (with Rob Fairlie UCSC.) [PDF].
• "The Determinants of the Global Digital Divide: A Cross-Country Analysis of Computer and Internet Penetration," Oxford Economic Papers (December 2006) (with Rob Fairlie UCSC.) [PDF].
• "Assessing the Global Digital Divide," in the La Follette Policy Report 15(1) (Spring 2005) (with Rob Fairlie UCSC.). [PDF]

Financial Linkages and Financial Crises

• "The Euro Area and World Interest Rates" (with Jeffrey Frankel ), revision of a paper presented at NY Fed conference on "Financial Globalization". [PDF]
• "A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets Over Time," Review of Economics and Statistics 86(3) (August 2004) (joint with Kristin Forbes) [PDF]. Revision of paper presented at Global Linkages conference (IMF, Wash., DC, Jan. 30-31, 2003).
• "Before the Fall: Were East Asian Currencies Overvalued?" Emerging Markets Review1 (2) (Aug. 2000). [PDF], revision of NBER Working Paper #6491 (August 1998).
• "Imperfect information, domestic regulation and financial crises" (with Ken Kletzer , UCSC), in Reuven Glick, Ramon Moreno and Mark Spiegel (editors) Financial Crises in Emerging Markets (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001): 196-237. [PDF]
• "Latin America and East Asia in the Context of an Insurance Model of Financial Crises" Journal of International Money and Finance18 (1999). [PDF].

The Euro

• "Productivity and the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate Puzzle," Mimeo (Dec. 2002) (with Ron Alquist). [PDF]. Revision of NBER WP #8824.
• "The Empirical Determinants of the Euro: Short and Long Run Perspectives," Paper presented at the Deutsche Bundesbank workshop on Equilibrium Exchange Rates of the euro (March 27-28, 2000), organized by Bernd Schnatz. [PDF] A nontechnical version of this paper: "Tracking the Euro's Progress," International Finance (November 2000) (with Ron Alquist). [PDF]

Interest Rate Parity and the Exchange Risk Premium

• "Survey Based Expectations and Uncovered Interest Parity," mimeo (October 7, 2009). [pdf]
• "Price-based Measurement of Financial Globalization: A Cross-Country Study of Interest Rate Parity," Pacific Economic Review 12(4) (2007):419-444 (with Hiro Ito). [PDF].
• "The (Partial) Rehabilitation of Interest Rate Parity in the Floating Rate Era: Longer Horizons, Alternative Expectations, and Emerging Markets," JIMF26 (2006): 7-21. [PDF]
• "Monetary Policy and Long-Horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity," IMF Staff Papers 51(3) (2004) [PDF], revision of NBER Working Paper #6797, November 1998 (with Guy Meredith) . Econometric version available as "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity at Short and Long Horizons" mimeo (January 2005). [PDF].
  Data used in Chinn-Meredith paper [Excel file]; Data Notes for Chinn & Meredith [PDF].
• "Interest Rate Parity," [PDF] and "Forward Premium Puzzle," [PDF] entries for Princeton Encyclopedia of the World Economy, edited by Kenneth Reinert and Ramkishen Rajan.
• "Free to Flow? New Results on Capital Mobility amongst the Developed countries," (August 2002) (with Rita Madarassy). [PDF]
• "Fin de Siecle Real Interest Parity," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 11(3-4) (September 2001) (with Eiji Fujii). [PDF]
• "More Survey Data on Exchange Rate Expectations: More Currencies, More Horizons, More Tests," (with Jeffrey Frankel ); in W. Allen and D. Dickinson (editors), Monetary Policy, Capital Flows and Financial Market Developments in the Era of Financial Globalisation: Essays in Honour of Max Fry, (Routledge, 2002), pp. 145-67. [PDF]

China and East Asia

• "Introduction: The Symposium on 'China's Impact on the Global Economy," Pacific Economic Review 3 (2009) pp. 342–345. [pdf].
• "Pitfalls in Measuring Exchange Rate Misalignment: The Yuan and Other Currencies," mimeo (May 29, 2008), forthcoming Open Economies Review (with Yin-Wong Cheung , UCSC, and Eiji Fujii, Tsukuba Univ.). [pdf].
• "China's Current and Account and Exchange Rate," forthcoming in "China's Growing Role in World Trade," co-edited by Rob Feenstra and Shang-Jin Wei (with Yin-Wong Cheung , UCSC, and Eiji Fujii, Tsukuba Univ.). [PDF].
• "The Fog Encircling the Renminbi Debate," Singapore Economic Review 52(3) (with Yin-Wong Cheung , UCSC, and Eiji Fujii, Tsukuba Univ.). [PDF].
• "The Overvaluation of Renminbi Undervaluation," Journal of International Money and Finance (with Yin-Wong Cheung , UCSC, and Eiji Fujii, Tsukuba Univ.). [PDF].
• "The Illusion of Precision and the Role of the Renminbi in Regional Integration," Forthcoming in K. Hamada, B. Reszat and U. Volz (eds.), Prospects for Monetary and Financial Integration in East Asia (with Yin-Wong Cheung , UCSC, and Eiji Fujii, Tsukuba Univ.). [PDF].
• "Macroeconomic Management and Financial Stability: The Implications for East Asia," paper presented at OECD-PRI conference on "The Impact and Coherence of OECD Country Policies on Asian Developing Economies," Paris, June 10-11, 2004. [PDF]
• China's Economic Integration with Pacific Rim Economies, manuscript to be published by Hong Kong Institute of Economics & Business Strategy, HK Univ. (with Yin-Wong Cheung and Eiji Fujii).
• "Dimensions of Financial Integration in Greater China: Money Markets, Banks and Policy Effects," International Journal of Finance and Economics 10(2) (April 2005) (with Yin-Wong Cheung , UCSC, and Eiji Fujii, Tsukuba Univ.). [PDF]
• "The Chinese Economies in Global Context: The Integration Process and Its Determinants," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies 20(1) (2006) (with Yin-Wong Cheung , UCSC, and Eiji Fujii, Tsukuba Univ.). [PDF]
• "Fare affari in Cina," UniNews, settimanale del Gruppo UniCredito Italiano, 8 June 2004.[link]
  
  

Surveys of Foreign Exchange Traders in the U.S. and the U.K.

• "Currency Traders and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Survey of the U.S. Market," Journal of International Money and Finance 20(4) (August 2001) (with Yin-Wong Cheung).[PDF] Combined revision of NBER Working Papers #7416 and #7417.
• "How Do UK Foreign Exchange Dealers Think Their Market Operates?" International Journal of Finance and Economics 9: 289-306 (with Yin-Wong Cheung and Ian Marsh). [PDF] revision of CEPR Discussion Paper #2230 and NBER Working Paper #7524