Papers

(Please note that these are preliminary versions.)

Lutz Kilian (Michigan) and Mark Taylor (Warwick), "Why is it So Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?"

Paul Bergin (UC Davis), "Putting the 'New Open Economy Macroeconomics' to a Test"

Jon Faust (Federal Reserve Board), John Rogers (Federal Reserve Board), and Jonathan Wright (Federal Reserve Board), "Exchange Rate Forecasting: The Errors We've Really Made"

Richard Clarida (Columbia), Lucio Sarno (Warwick), Mark Taylor (Warwick) and Georgio Valente (Warwick), "The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond"

Martin Evans (Georgetown) and Richard Lyons (Berkeley), "Why Order Flow Explains Exchange Rates"

Nelson Mark (Ohio State) and Young-Kyu Moh (Ohio State), "What do Interest Rate Differentials Tell us About the Exchange Rate?"

Torben G. Andersen (Northwestern), Tim Bollerslev (Duke), Francis Diebold (Penn), and Clara Vega (Penn), "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange"

Michael B. Devereux (British Columbia) and Philip Lane (Trinity College Dublin), "Understanding Bilateral Exchange Rate Volatility"

Yu-chin Chen (Harvard) and Kenneth Rogoff (IMF), "Commodity Currencies and Empirical Exchange Rate Equations"