Wisconsin Unemployment Rate Forecast

 

Bruce E. Hansen

T. Haavelmo Professor

Department of Economics

University of Wisconsin

 

25 October 2010

 

This memo reports a 12-month forecast for the seasonally adjusted Wisconsin unemployment rate. In addition to point forecasts (the expected future value of the unemployment rate), the memo also reports 50% and 80% forecast intervals (probable ranges for future values).

The unemployment rate in September 2010 was 7.8%, holding near constant for several months, following a several months of strong decreases.

The forecasts fare summarized in Figure 1 and Table 1. The point forecast is for the unemployment rate to decline very slowly over the next year, dropping to 7.1% by September of 2011. The 80% forecast intervals show that there is considerable additional uncertainty. In particular, there is a significant probability that the unemployment rate will increase again starting in April of 2011, possibly rising back up to 8.7% by July of 2011. There is also a significant probability that the unemployment rate will continue to fall, as low as 5.7% by September of 2011. The 50% forecast intervals refine this uncertainty, showing that it is unlikely that the unemployment rate will rise over 8.0%, could stay roughly constant over the next year, but could easily fall to 6.0% by next September.

A 50% forecast interval is designed to contain the future unemployment rate with 50% probability. It is just as likely for the rate to fall in this interval as out of it. This is the smallest possible interval which has even odds of containing the future rate. We can think of this interval as “likely” to contain the future rate.

An 80% forecast interval is designed to contain the future unemployment rate with 80% probability. We can think of this interval as “highly likely” to contain the future rate. The 80% interval is designed so that there is a 10% chance that the future value will be smaller than the forecast interval, and a 10% chance that the future value will be larger than the forecast interval.

 

Figure 1: Wisconsin Unemployment Rate Forecasts


 

TABLE 1: Wisconsin Unemployment Rate Forecasts

 

History

Point Forecast

50% Interval Forecast

80% Interval Forecast

2010: 3

8.8%

 

 

 

2010: 4

8.5%

2010: 5

8.2%

2010: 6

7.9%

2010: 7

7.9%

2010: 8

7.8%

2010: 9

7.8%

2010:10

 

7.7%

(7.6%,  7.8%)

(7.6%,  7.8%)

2010:11

 

7.7%

(7.5%,  7.8%)

(7.5%,  7.8%)

2010:12

 

7.6%

(7.3%,  7.8%)

(7.3%,  7.9%)

2011:1

 

7.5%

(7.2%,  7.8%)

(7.0%,  8.0%)

2011:2

 

7.5%

(7.0%,  7.7%)

(6.9%,  8.0%)

2011:3

 

7.4%

(6.9%,  7.7%)

(6.7%,  8.0%)

2012:4

 

7.4%

(6.7%,  7.8%)

(6.5%,  8.2%)

2012:5

 

7.4%

(6.6%,  7.9%)

(6.5%,  8.4%)

2012:6

 

7.4%

(6.5%,  8.0%)

(6.3%,  8.6%)

2012:7

 

7.4%

(6.4%,  8.0%)

(6.2%,  8.7%)

2012:8

 

7.3%

(6.2%,  7.9%)

(5.9%,  8.8%)

2012:9

 

7.1%

(6.0%,  7.8%)

(5.7%,  8.7%)

 

Previous Forecasts

                September 2010

August 2010

July 2010

June 2010

May 2010

April 2010

            March 2010

            February 2010

January 2010

                December 2009

                November 2009

 

Forecast Methodology