Wisconsin Unemployment Rate Forecast

 

Bruce E. Hansen

T. Haavelmo Professor

Department of Economics

University of Wisconsin

 

5 June 2014

 

This memo reports a 12-month forecast for the seasonally adjusted Wisconsin unemployment rate. In addition to point forecasts (the expected future value of the unemployment rate), the memo also reports 50% and 80% forecast intervals (probable ranges for future values).

The unemployment rate in April 2014 was 5.8%, declining steadily from 7.0% in May 2013. This trend is meaningfully lower than the unemployment rate during 2012, which ranged between 6.7% and 7.1%.

The forecasts are summarized in Figure 1 and Table 1. The point forecast is for the unemployment rate to decline to 5.4% by October 2014, and then stay roughly constant. The 80% forecast intervals show that there is considerable additional uncertainty. There is a possibility that the unemployment rate could increase, possibly to 6.4% by April 2015. There is also a significant probability that the unemployment rate will continue to fall, as low as 4.7% by March 2015. The 50% forecast intervals refine this uncertainty, showing that it is unlikely the unemployment rate will increase, or fall below 5.0% during in the next year. Overall, the forecast is optimistic for the unemployment rate to fall modestly.

A 50% forecast interval is designed to contain the future unemployment rate with 50% probability. It is just as likely for the rate to fall in this interval as out of it. This is the smallest possible interval which has even odds of containing the future rate. We can think of this interval as “likely” to contain the future rate.

An 80% forecast interval is designed to contain the future unemployment rate with 80% probability. We can think of this interval as “highly likely” to contain the future rate. The 80% interval is designed so that there is a 10% chance that the future value will be smaller than the forecast interval, and a 10% chance that the future value will be larger than the forecast interval.

 

Figure 1: Wisconsin Unemployment Rate Forecasts


 

TABLE 1: Wisconsin Unemployment Rate Forecasts

 

History

Point Forecast

50% Interval Forecast

80% Interval Forecast

2014:1

6.1%

2014:2

6.0%

2014:3

5.9%

2014:4

5.8%

2014:5

 

5.7%

(5.7%,  5.7%)

(5.6%,  5.8%)

2014:6

 

5.7%

(5.6%,  5.8%)

(5.5%,  5.8%)

2014:7

 

5.6%

(5.5%,  5.6%)

(5.4%,  5.7%)

2014:8

 

5.5%

(5.4%,  5.6%)

(5.2%,  5.7%)

2014:9

 

5.4%

(5.2%,  5.6%)

(5.0%,  5.8%)

2014:10

 

5.4%

(5.1%,  5.6%)

(4.9%,  5.9%)

2014:11

 

5.4%

(5.1%,  5.6%)

(4.9%,  5.8%)

2014:12

 

5.4%

(5.1%,  5.7%)

(4.8%,  6.0%)

2015:1

 

5.4%

(5.1%,  5.7%)

(4.8%,  6.1%)

2015:2

 

5.4%

(5.1%,  5.7%)

(4.8%,  6.1%)

2015:3

 

5.5%

(5.0%,  5.8%)

(4.7%,  6.2%)

2015:4

 

5.5%

(5.1%,  5.9%)

(4.7%,  6.4%)

 

Previous Forecasts

                April 2014

February 2014

January 2014

December 2013

September 2013

                August 2013

July 2013

June 2013

May 2013

April 2013

March 2013

February 2013

January 2013

December 2012

November 2012

October 2012

September 2012

August 2012

July 2012

June 2012

May 2012

                April 2012

Februrary 2012

January 2012

December 2011

November 2011

October 2011

September 2011

August 2011

July 2011

June 2011

May 2011

                April 2011

March 2011

February 2011

January 2011

                December 2010

November 2010

October 2010

September 2010

August 2010

July 2010

June 2010

May 2010

April 2010

                March 2010

                February 2010

January 2010

                December 2009

                November 2009

 

Forecast Methodology