Department of Economics


ECON 460: Economic Forecasting
Spring 2017
Bruce Hansen

Tuesday-Thursday, 2:30 - 3:45. Social Science 5231
email: bruce.hansen@wisc.edu
Classlist econ460-1-s17@lists.wisc.edu
Office Hours: Thursdays 10:00 - 12:00, or by appointment

The prerequite is Econ 410 (Econometrics).

This is a one semester introduction to econometric time series analysis, forecasting methods, and forecast evaluation. The course will cover theoretical, methodological and applied topics, and much of the work will be hands-on computer analysis in Stata.

Topics covered will include: Trends, Seasonality, Cycles, autoregressive models, nonstationarity, volatility, forecast criteria, point forecasting, interval forecasts, fan charts, and forecast combination.

Textbook Forecasting in Economics, Business, Finance and Beyond, by Francis X Diebold
Supplemental Text The Signal and the Noise, by Nate Silver

Syllabus
Forecasting Project
Reading Reflections

Stata Handout

Problem Sets
Problem Set # 1 Due Tuesday January 24
Problem Set # 2 Due Tuesday January 31
Problem Set # 3 Due Tuesday February 7
Problem Set # 4 Due Tuesday February 14
Problem Set # 5 Due Tuesday February 21
Problem Set # 6 Due Tuesday February 28
Problem Set # 7 Due Tuesday March 14
Problem Set # 8 Due Tuesday April 4
Problem Set # 9 Due Tuesday April 11

Lectures:
Lecture # 1 January 17
Lecture # 2 January 19
Lecture # 3 January 24
Lecture # 4 January 26
Lecture # 5 January 31
Lecture # 6 February 2
Lecture # 7 February 7
Lecture # 8 February 9
Lecture # 9 February 14
Lecture # 10 February 16
Lecture # 11 February 21
Lecture # 12 February 23
Lecture # 13 February 28
Review 1 March 2
Lecture # 14 March 9
Lecture # 15 March 14
Lecture # 16 March 16
Lecture # 17 March 28
Lecture # 18 March 30
Lecture # 19 April 4
Lecture # 20 April 6
Lecture # 21 April 11
Lecture # 22 April 13
Lecture # 23 April 18
Lecture # 24 April 20
Lecture # 25 April 25
Lecture # 26 April 27/May 2

Stata do Files
realgdpgrowth.do Creates realgdpgrowth.dta
Lecture3.do
Lecture4.do
Lecture5.do
Lecture6.do
Lecture7.do
Lecture8.do
Lecture9.do
Lecture10.do
Lecture11.do
Lecture12.do
Lecture13.do
Lecture14.do
Lecture15.do
Lecture16.do
Lecture17.do
Lecture18.do
Lecture19.do
Lecture20.do
Lecture21.do
Lecture22.do
Lecture23.do
Lecture24.do
Lecture25.do

Data Files
realgdpgrowth.dta GDP Growth Rates
s&p.dta Standard&Poors
record.dta World Record Data
liquor.dta Retail Sales from beer, wine and liquor stores, and Retail Sporting Good Sales

Links:
FRED Economic Data
Unemployment Rate Forecast
Stata
Resources for Economists
Bruce Hansen's Webpage
Department of Economics
Grievance Procedure