Econ 390
Economic Forecasting
Course Time: Tuesdays and Thursdays, 1:00 – 2:15. Humanities 1221
Instructor: Bruce Hansen, 6438 Social Science. behansen@wisc.edu
Office Hours: Tuesdays & Thursdays, 2:30 – 3:30, or by appointment.
The course prerequisite is Econ 410.
This is a one semester introduction to econometric time series analysis, forecasting methods, and forecast evaluation. The course will cover theoretical, methodological and applied topics, and much of the work will be hands-on numerical analysis.
On the course webpage, I will post electronic copies of problem sets and any material discussed in class.
The computer software STATA is available in the social science computer labs (rooms 4218 and 3218 in Social Science), or via the SSCC Winstat server.
If you want STATA for your own computer, a student license for “small STATA” can be purchased from STATA for $35 (six-month) or $49 (one-year). Small STATA limits use to 1200 observations and 99 variables, which is sufficient for all but one of the assignments.
The primary textbook is Forecasting for Economics and Business by Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera.
A supplemental required book is The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – But Some Don’t by Nate Silver. Each week you will read one chapter from Silver’s book and write a one paragraph Reading Reflection.
Problem sets will be assigned weekly. These assignments will include both problem solving and computer tasks.
A major component of the course is an independent forecasting project.
There will be two midterms and one final exam.
First midterm exam: Thursday, February 20 (during class).
Second midterm exam: Tuesday, April 8 (during class).
Final exam: Thursday, May 15: 2:45 – 4:45
The course grading will be divided as follows:
Problem sets: 15%
Reading Reflections: 10%
First Midterm: 15%
Second Midterm: 15%
Project: 25%
Final Exam: 20%