Econ 390
Economic Forecasting
Course Time: Tuesdays and Thursdays, 1:00 – 2:15. Nutrition Science 290
Instructor: Bruce Hansen, 6438 Social Science. behansen@wisc.edu
Office Hours: Wednesdays, 1:30 – 3:30, or by appointment.
The course prerequisite is Econ 410.
This is a one semester introduction to econometric time series analysis, forecasting methods, and forecast evaluation. The course will cover theoretical, methodological and applied topics, and much of the work will be hands-on numerical analysis.
The computer software STATA is available in the social science computer labs (rooms 4218 and 3218 in Social Science).
If you want STATA for your own computer, a one-year student license for “small STATA” can be purchased from STATA for $49. (Include your wisc.edu email in your order. Afterwards you will receive an email saying that you can pick up an installation CD from the SSCC in the Social Science building.)
Problem sets will be assigned weekly. These assignments will include both problem solving and computer tasks.
On the course webpage, I will post electronic copies of problem sets and any material discussed in class.
A major component of the course is an independent forecasting project, discussed below.
There will be three midterms and no final exam.
First midterm exam: Tuesday, February 23 (during class).
Second midterm exam: Thursday, March 25 (during class).
Third midterm exam: Thursday, May 6 (during class).
The course grading will be divided as follows:
Problem sets: 15%
Project: 25%
First Midterm: 20%
Second Midterm: 20%
Third Midterm: 20%
The primary textbook is Elements of Forecasting by Francis Diebold. We also will be reading three chapters from Introduction to Econometrics by James Stock and Mark Watson. Additional readings are given on the Reading List.