Economics 390

Spring 2010

Reading List

Overview

Diebold, Chapters 1, 2, 3, 4

Modeling and Forecasting Trend

Diebold, Chapter 5

Modeling and Forecasting Seasonality

Diebold, Chapter 6

Modeling and Forecasting Cycles

Diebold, Chapter 7, 8, 9

Stock and Watson, Chapter 14

Forecasting with Regression Models

Diebold, Chapter 10, 11

Stock and Watson, Chapters 15, 16

Evaluating Forecasts

Diebold, Chapter 12

CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record link

“Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Seventies: Do they fit out of sample?” Meese and Rogoff, 1983, link

Combining Forecasts

Diebold, Chapter 12

Unit Roots and Stochastic Trends

Diebold, Chapter 13

Volatility

Diebold, Chapter 14

Interval Forecasts

“Interval Forecasting: An Analysis Based Upon ARCH-Quantile Estimators,” Granger, White and Kamstra Journal of Econometrics, 1989, link

Leading Indicators

“The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy,” Staiger, Stock and Watson, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1997. link

“How did leading indicator forecasts perform during the 2001 recession?” Stock and Watson, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly, 2003 link

Inflation Forecasting

“Forecasting inflation,” Stock and Watson, Journal of Monetary Economics, 1999. link.

“Forecasting output and inflation: The role of asset prices,” Stock and Watson, Journal of Economic Literature, 2003. link

“Why has U.S. inflation become harder to forecast?” Stock and Watson. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2007. link

“Phillips curve inflation forecasts,” Stock and Watson, working paper, 2008, link.

Wisconsin Economic Forecasts

Wisconsin Job Outlook 2006-2016, link

Wisconsin Economic Outlook (Nov 2009) link

“State Revenue Forecasting in Wisconsin”, Scott Niederjohn. link

Advanced surveys of research in forecasting methods can be found in the Handbook of Economic Forecasting (2006), which can be accessed through the UW library here.