School Enrollment Projections
- Projections Packages
- Public Presentations
- Additional Services
- School Demography
- Research
- Contact APL
Projections Packages
The APL provides a basic enrollment projections package to all school districts that we service. In addition, some districts choose more detailed analyses, including housing development and/or open enrollment analyses.
Brochure (pdf)
Basic Enrollment Projections Package
The APL produces a report with more than twenty tables and charts, including:
• Professional quality color map
• Enrollment history by grade
• Grade progression ratios
• Birth history and projections
• Population estimates and projections
• Housing starts data by housing type
• Enrollment projection models
Cost: Fees range from $3,000 (small, in-state) to $6,000 (out-of-state). Projections for
individual schools in a district are $500 each.
Housing Development Analysis
APL staff contacts local officials, developers, and planners to create a housing build-out for the number, type, and value of expected housing to be built in the school district over the next several years. We then generate 1-2
projection models based on assumptions about the number of students per housing unit that might be expected to enter the district due to new housing development.
Cost: Additional fees range from $2,000 to $4,000, depending on land area of district and number of new developments proposed.
Open Enrollment Analysis
APL analyzes recent trends in open enrollment into and out-of the school district of interest, as well as neighboring districts.
The analysis includes:
• Charts and tables summarizing open enrollment trends in district
• Map of districts in the area depicting open enrollment trends
• Comparison of enrollment history with and with-out open enrollment
Cost: Additional fee of $1,000.
Public Presentations
We strongly recommend an on-site presentation where APL staff can explain the models used in our projections and their assumptions. A presentation is an effective way to communicate project results to school boards, special planning committees, and the general public. In addition to providing more detailed information and responding to questions, a presentation strengthens the accessibility and credibility of the entire planning process.
Cost: $100 for districts within 30 miles of the APL office, $100 plus $2 per mile for districts beyond 30 miles of the APL office.
Additional Services
Because the APL specializes in demographic data analysis, GIS analysis, web services, and cartography (in addition to making school enrollment projections); we provide additional services and more detailed analyses for school districts, communities, and/or regions if requested.
Examples of projects include:
• Large wall maps and posters
• Maps of demographic and/or socio- economic variables
• Detailed community studies,
including migration and housing turnover
• Detailed regional studies, including commuting trends, migration, and school enrollment
• GIS analysis, including school
boundary changes, transportation routes, and/or annexation
We customize projects to suit a variety of needs. Please contact us with inquiries.
School Demography
The Applied Population Laboratory (APL) is a group of research and outreach professionals, within the University of Wisconsin - Madison, dedicated to providing the best demographic data and analyses available. Each year, we provide information solutions to thousands of individuals and organizations. One of our premier programs is the School Enrollment Projections Program.
To assist school administrators, business managers, and strategic planners, professionally trained demographers at the APL prepare custom enrollment projections by grade for school districts. Our central models are based on cohort component projection methodology, and we modify details to meet the needs of individual school districts.
Alternative models based on housing development and students per housing unit may also be requested. These models work best for rapidly growing districts and for districts that are experiencing new or more prolific housing development than they have in the recent past.
Taken together with the contextual information we provide on population change, migration, and housing development; our models provide strategic information that is useful for short- and long-term planning for school districts, municipalities, and Smart Growth planners.
Research
- Wisconsin's Public School Enrollment: Past, Present, & Future (pdf)
- Presentation to the 87th Wisconsin State Education Convention (pdf)
Contact the APL
Applied Population Laboratory
UW-Madison
1450 Linden Drive
Madison, WI 53706
Fax: (608) 262-6022
Website: www.apl.wisc.edu
Sarah Kemp
Sarah holds a BS in Geography from Carroll College (1987) and an MS in Geography from UW-Milwaukee (1995). Sarah has experience in planning, and her current work is centered around school demography and planning.
(608) 265-6189 kemp@wisc.edu
Richelle Winkler
Richelle holds a BA in Sociology from University of South Carolina (1999) and an MS in Sociology/Rural Sociology from UW-Madison (2004). Richelle's training is in social demography, environmental sociology, and rural community change.
(608) 262-1216 rwinkler@ssc.wisc.edu
Sara Lazenby
Sara holds a BA in Sociology from UW-Madison (2006), and she is currently enrolled in an MS program in Educational Policy Studies at UW-Madison. Her interests are in applied education policy and the transition from K-12 to higher education.
(608) 263-5091 sllazenby@wisc.edu
