Kalist, David E., and Noelle A. Molinari. 2006. “Is the Marginal Child More Likely to be Murdered? An Examination of State Abortion Ratios and Infant Homicide.” Journal of Human Resources 41(3): 611–630.
We examine whether abortion removes from the population those infants most at risk of homicide. As part of our identification strategy, we find that abortion reduces the number of unwanted births, estimating that 1 percent increase in the abortion ratio reduces unwanted births by approximately 0.35 percent. Using cross-sectional time-series data for U.S. states between 1970 and 1998, we find that an increase in the abortion ratio (a proxy for unwanted births) reduces the expected number of infant homicides, especially among black infants. Overall, the elasticity of infant homicides with respect to unwanted births is approximately 0.089.
David E. Kalist is an assistant professor of economics at Shippensburg University. Noelle A. Molinari is a research economist affiliated with Wayne State University. The authors thank Stephen Spurr and participants at the Eastern Economic Association meetings, especially Michael Grossman, for helpful comments on an early version of this paper. Address correspondence to David E. Kalist, Department of Economics, 324 Grove Hall, Old Main Drive, Shippensburg, PA, 17257-2297. Telephone: (717) 477-1437. Email: dekali@ship.edu. The data used in this article can be obtained beginning January 2007 through December 2010 from David E. Kalist, Department of Economics, 324 Grove Hall, Old Main Drive, Shippensburg, PA, 17257-2297. Telephone: (717) 477-1437. Email: dekali@ship.edu.