Nicholson, Sean. 2005. “How Much Do Medical Students Know About Physician Income?” Journal of Human Resources 40(1): 100-114.

Twenty-five cohorts of medical students were asked in their first and fourth year of school to estimate contemporaneous physician income in six different specialties. The students’ income estimation errors varied systematically over time and cross-sectionally by specialty and type of student. The median student underestimated physician income by 15 percent, and the median absolute value of the estimation errors was 26 percent of actual income. Students were 35 percent more accurate when estimating market income in their fourth relative to their first year, which indicates medical students learn a considerable amount before choosing a specialty.

Sean Nicholson is an assistant professor in the Department of Policy Analysis and Management at Cornell University and a faculty research fellow at NBER. He is grateful to Jon Veloski and Mary Robeson from Jefferson Medical College for providing the data. Rachel Croson, Robert Lemke, two anonymous referees, and members of The Wharton School’s Decision Processes workshop provided helpful comments. Data for this article is available from the author from August 2005 through October 2008 at this address: Department of Policy Analysis and Management, Cornell University, 133 Martha Van Rensselaer Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853.