Lien, Diana S., and William N. Evans. 2005. "Estimating the Impact of Large Cigarette Tax Hikes: The Case of Maternal Smoking and Infant Birth Weight." Journal of Human Resources 40(2): 373-392.

Using a statistical matching procedure to choose control groups, we find that four states that adopted large cigarette tax hikes had corresponding decreases in smoking participation of pregnant women. Using the tax hike as an instrument for smoking in birth-weight equations and pooling data across experiments, we find that smoking during pregnancy doubles the chance an infant is born with a low birth weight. Our estimates are similar to single-equation estimates where maternal smoking is treated as exogenous.

Diana S. Lien is an economist at the CNA Corporation. William N. Evans is a professor of economics, University of Maryland, a Faculty Associate of the Maryland Population Research Center, and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Preparation of this article was assisted by a grant from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Substance Abuse Policy Research Program. The authors are grateful to seminar participants at the University of Maryland, Brown University, Columbia University, Trinity College, CNA Corporation, Congressional Budget Office, U.S. Treasury Department and U.S. Census Bureau for helpful input. The data used in this article can be obtained beginning October 2005 through September 2008 from William N. Evans, Department of Economics, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, evans@econ.umd.edu.