Grogger, Jeffrey. 2004. "Time Limits and Welfare Use." Journal of Human Resources 39(2): 405-424.

Time limits represent a substantial departure from previous welfare policy. Theory suggests that their effects should vary according to the age of the youngest child of the family. I test this prediction using data from the Current Population Survey and find that time limits indeed have larger effects on families with younger children. I further estimate that anticipatory responses to time limits have decreased welfare use by 6 yo 7 percent, accounting for 12 to 13 percent of the decline in welfare use during the late 1990s.

Jeffrey Grogger is a professor of public policy at the University of California, Los Angeles, a research associate of the NBER, and a coeditor of the Journal of Human Resources. The author thanks Phillip Levine, Derek Neal, David Ribar, David Zimmerman, and an anonymous referee for helpful suggestions and Duncan MacRae and David Yamanishi for excellent research assistance. The data used in this article can be obtained beginning October 2004 through September 2007 from Jeffrey Grogger, School of Public Policy, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1656.