Greenberg, David H., Charles Michalopoulos, and Philip K. Robins. 2004. "What Happens To The Effects Of Government-Funded Training Programs Over Time?" Journal of Human Resources 39(1): 277-293.

This paper applies meta-analytic techniques to evaluations of voluntary training programs to investigate whether impacts of government-funded training programs on earnings grow or deteriorate over time. For adult men and youth, we find some evidence that, after initially increasing, earnings impacts diminish over time. For adult women, in contrast, the evidence suggests that earnings impacts initially grow and then remain undiminished. Given the scarcity of impact estimates for more than three years, we recommend that future studies measure these impacts for a longer period of time. Until this is done, cost-effectiveness assessments of training programs should allow for the possibility that, at least for adult women, earnings impacts might remain stable over time.

David H. Greenberg is a professor of economics, emeritus, at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County and worked on this note while at the British Cabinet Office; Charles Michalopoulos is a senior research associate at MDRC. Philip K. Robins is a professor of economics at the University of Miami. Portions of the research reported in this paper were supported by a grant from the Rockefeller Foundation to the Maryland Institute for Policy Analysis and Research, University of Maryland, Baltimore County. All opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Rockefeller Foundation or any of its employees or sponsoring organizations. The authors wish to acknowledge the helpful comments of an anonymous referee.