Volume 38, Number 4 (Fall) 2003
Pepper, John V. 2003. "Using Experiments to Evaluate Performance Standards: What Do Welfare-to-Work Demonstrations Reveal to Welfare Reformers?" Journal of Human Resources 38(4):.
This paper examines how experimental demonstrations can be used to inform planners about the efficacy of social programs in light of a performance standard. The problem is illustrated by considering the situation faced by state governments attempting to design programs to meet the new federal welfare-to-work standards. Data from experimental evaluations alone allow only limited inferences about the labor market outcomes of welfare recipients. Combined with prior information on the selection process, however, these data are informative, suggesting either that the long run federal requirements cannot be met or that these standards will only be met under special circumstances.
John V. Pepper (jvpepper@virginia.edu) is an assistant professor of economics at the University of Virginia. This research has been supported in part by the 1998-99 Joint Center for Poverty Research/ASPE Small Grants Program. He has benefitted from the comments of Stephen Bell, Dan Black, Leora Friedberg, Carolyn Heinrich, V. Joseph Hotz, Matt Lyon, Charles Manski, and three anonymous referees. He also has benefitted from the opportunity to present this work at the 1999 JCPR Small Grants Conference, the 2000 ASSA Conference, the 2000 Murray S. Johnson Memorial Conference at the University of Texas, and in seminars at Colorado University, Cornell University, the General Accounting Office, Mathematica, Northwestern University, Syracuse University and the University of Virginia. He thanks Jessica Howell for research assistance. The data used in this paper are derived from files made available to researchers by the MDRC. The author remains solely responsible for how the data have been used and interpreted.
© 2003 by the Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System
US ISSN 0022-166X