Volume 33, Number 1 (Spring) 1998: Attrition in Longitudinal Surveys
Burkam, David T., and Valerie E. Lee. 1998. "Effects of Monotone and Nonmonotone Attrition on Parameter Estimates in Regression Models With Educational Data: Demographic Effects on Achievement, Aspirations and Attitudes." Journal of Human Resources 33(2):555-574.
Using the High School and Beyond longitudinal study, we investigate the
participation patterns across four waves of data. Because nonrespondents from one wave are
recontacted at subsequent waves, both monotone and nonmonotone attrition patterns arise.
We discuss correlates of these two types of attrition in an attempt to describe
individuals who may be at-risk of attrition. Gender and incomplete participation in the
base-year (respondents who exhibit item nonresponse on key variables) are important
predictors of later attrition. Estimated effects of monotone and nonmonotone attrition on
parameter estimates in regression models suggest that certain demographic effects will be
biased due to sample attrition. The evidence for bias is neither pervasive nor consistent,
but suggests a systematic inflation of the Black-White achievement disparity.
Dr. Burkam is a Lecturer in the School of Education and the Residential College, and Dr. Lee is a Professor of Education, both at the University of Michigan. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Conference on Attrition in Longitudinal Surveys, February 24-25, 1994, at Washington, D.C. The authors thank Greg Duncan of the Institute for Social Research at the University of Michigan and Daniel Kasprzyk of the National Center for Education Statistics for their insightful comments on earlier drafts of this paper. The authors appreciate their encouragement to engage in methodological explorations of High School and Beyond. Heretofore, the authors' extensive work with these data has focused on substantive questions surrounding education. The data used in this article can be obtained beginning in August 1997 through August 2000 from Dr. Burkam at the School of Education, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (e-mail: dtburkam@umich.edu).
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