Volume 31, Number 1 (Winter) 1996
Dominitz, Jeff, and Charles F. Manski. 1996. "Eliciting Student Expectations of the Returns to Schooling." Journal of Human Resources 31(1):1-26.
We
report here on the design and first application of an interactive
computer-assisted self administered interview (CASI) survey eliciting from high
school students and college undergraduates their expectations of the income they
would earn if they were to complete different levels of schooling. We also
elicit respondents’ beliefs about current earnings distributions. Whereas a
scattering of earlier studies have elicited point expectations of earnings
unconditional on future schooling, we elicit subjective earnings distributions
under alternative scenarios for future schooling. In this exploratory study, we
find that respondents are willing and able to respond meaningfully to questions
eliciting their earnings expectations in probabilistic form. The 110
respondents vary considerably in their earnings expectations but there is a
common belief that the returns to a college education are positive and that
earnings rise between ages 30 and 40. There is a common belief that one’s own
future earnings are rather uncertain. Moreover, respondents tend to
overestimate the current degree of earnings inequality in American society.
Jeff
Dominitz
is
a research fellow at the Institute for Social Research at the University of
Michigan. Charles F.
Manski is a
professor
of
economics
at the University
of Wisconsin and a former Editor of the
Journal
of
Human
Resources.
This
research is supported by grant SBR-9223220 from the National Science Foundation
and by grant 9IASPE236A from the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning
and Evaluation, U. S. Department of Health and Human Services. - The
authors are grateful to Charles Palit and Dawn Palit for making available the
CASI software. They are grateful to to the Madison Metropolitan School
District, Carolyn Taylor, Michael Harrington, Richard Steckleberg,
© 2002 by the Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System
US ISSN 0022-166X