Volume 19, Number 1 (Winter) 1984
Moffitt, Robert. 1984. “The Estimation of Fertility Equations on Panel Data.” Journal of Human Resources 19(1):22-34.
Several econometric issues in the estimation of fertility equations with panel data are addressed in this paper. The most interesting is the truncation of the error term in a number-of-children equation arising from the fact that the number of children cannot fall over time. It is shown that this generates a “ratchet” mechanism under which the probability of having a child drops suddenly following a birth and then gradually rises again until another birth occurs. Estimates are provided with the National Longitudinal Survey of Young Women.
The author is Associate Professor of Economics, Rutgers University. The author would like to thank J. S. Butler for discussions of the estimation techniques used in this paper. Expert research assistance was provided by Marta Harrison. Comments from Timothy Carr, Douglas Wolf, the participants in the Yale Labor Workshop, and two anonymous referees are appreciated. This research was partially supported by the National Institute for Child Health and Human Development. All opinions and errors are those of the author.
© 2003 by the Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System
US ISSN 0022-166X