Bloom, Howard S. 1984. “Estimating the Effect of Job-Training Programs, Using Longitudinal Data: Ashenfelter’s Findings Reconsidered.” Journal of Human Resources 19(4):544-556.

This paper is an examination of how autoregressive earnings models commonly used to evaluate job-training programs can produce badly biased estimates of both the magnitude and the temporal pattern of program impacts. Ashenfelter’s results are used to illustrate this point, and a new, more appropriate model is used to reanalyze his data. Of particular importance is the finding that the decay in Ashenfelter’s estimated training effect for men was produced by a time-varying bias in his model.

The author is Associate Professor, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University. This paper grew out of a project for the U.S. Congressional Budget Office and the National Commission for Employment Policy. The author is solely responsible for its content, however. My thanks to Susan Philipson Bloom, David Ellwood, Nancy Gordon, Daniel Saks, Ralph Smith, Scott Thompson, Bruce Vavrichek, Wendy Wolf, and John Yinger for their helpful comments.

© 2003 by the Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System

US ISSN 0022-166X

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