Volume 15, Number 4 (Fall) 1980
Keeley, Michael C. 1980. "The Effects of Negative Income Tax Programs on Fertility." Journal of Human Resources 15(4):675-694.
An analysis of the effects of a negative income tax (NIT) program on fertility is presented in this paper. The model developed indicates that an NIT has three direct effects on fertility: (1) an income effect, (2) a direct subsidy effect, and (3) cost-of-time effects due to the higher tax rate of the NIT. The direct cost-of-time effects consist of both own- and cross-price effects. In addition, there are possible indirect effects due to the interaction of quality and quantity of children. The net impact is theoretically unknown because the income effect and the cross-price effects are of unknown signs. Empirically, we find strong significant negative effects of five-year financial treatment for married whites and strong positive effects for married Chicanas during the second and third years of the experiment.
The author is an economist with SRI International. The research reported herein was performed pursuant to contracts with the States of Washington and Colorado, prime contractors for the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare under contract numbers SRS-70-53 and HEW-100-78-0004, respectively. The opinions expressed in the paper are those of the authors and should not be construed as representing the opinions or policies of the States of Washington and Colorado or any agency of the United States government. Karen Wakabayashi and John Peterson provided valuable programming and research assistance. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the June 1978 meetings of the Western Economic Association. Philip Robins, Kathryn Yaeger, and the editor of this Journal provided helpful comments. However, the author is responsible for any remaining errors.
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