Keeley, Michael C., Philip K. Robins, Robert G. Spiegelman, and Richard W. West. 1978. "The Labor Supply Effects and Costs of Alternative Negative Income Tax Programs." Journal of Human Resources 13(1):3-36.

Results from the Seattle and Denver Income Maintenance Experiments are used to predict nationwide labor-supply effects and costs of six alternative negative income tax programs. To make the predictions, a labor-supply model parameterizing the experiment treatments is estimated using experimental data. The parameters of this model are introduced into a microsimulation model called Microanalysis of Transfers to Households (MATH). The simulations employ the March 1975 Current Population Survey (CPS), which is a weighted random sample of the U.S. population. The simulations are performed within a partial equilibrium framework under the assumption that the demand for low-income labor is perfectly elastic. The simulation results indicate that coverage, costs, and labor-supply effects of a national NIT program vary widely with the parameters of the program.

The authors are economists with Stanford Research Institute, Menlo Park, California. Spiegelman is project leader for the Seattle and Denver Income Maintenance Experiments. The authors wish to acknowledge the valuable contributions made to this paper by Myles Maxfield of Mathematica Policy Research, Jodie Allen of the U.S. Department of Labor (formerly of Mathematica Policy Research), Helen Cohn and Diane Hollenbeck of The Hendrickson Corporation, and David Betson, Joseph Corbett, David Greenber, Richard Kasten, and Larry Orr of the U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare. The research reported here was performed pursuant to contracts with the States of Washington and Colorado, prime contractors for the U.S. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare under Contract Nos. SRS-70-53 and SRS-71-81, respectively. The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and should not be construed as representing the opinions or policies of the States of Washington or Colorado or any agency of the United States government.

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