Volume 6, Number 4 (Fall) 1971
Barth, Peter S. 1971. "A Time Series Analysis of Layoff Rates." Journal of Human Resources 6(4):448-465.
This study attempts to shed some light on labor market behavior by examining layoff rates. Multiple regressions are employed to estimate layoff rate functions for 20 manufacturing industries using quarterly data. Some industries are found to postpone layoffs in the face of falling demand by at least a quarter period. Many industries apparently adjust their layoff rates to take account of the probability of rehiring their own employees. This behavior is likely to be associated with the degree of specific training that employees have. It represents a potential impediment to countercyclical policy measures.
The author is on the faculty of the University of New Mexico. The article was completed while the author was on leave with a Brookings Institution fellowship, working in the Office of Research and Development, Manpower Administration, U.S. Department of Labor. I believe I have been substantially helped in this paper by the comments of John Burton, Herbert Parnes, Arnold Weber, and the participants of the labor economics workshop at Ohio State University.
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