Volume 5, Number 4 (Fall) 1970
Gallaway, Lowell E., and Zachary Dyckman. 1970. "The Full Employment-Unemployment Rate: 1953-1980." Journal of Human Resources 5(4):487-510.
Three questions are explored: (1) Has there been an upward drift in the full employment-unemployment rate in the United States? (2) If so, what are the causes of such a drift? (3) What are the prospects with respect to any change in the full employment-unemployment rate between now and 1980? The answer to the first question appears to be yes, and the drift apparently is caused by increases in the supply of so-called marginal labor force groups. With regard to prospects for change in the full employment-unemployment rate, moderate real growth rates appear capable of returning the rate to its 1953 level.
Mr. Gallaway is Professor of Economics at Ohio University, Mr. Dyckman is a member of the staff of the Center for Naval Analyses. The authors are indebted to Dave M. O'Neill and F. Gerard Adams for comments and to Robert Stein and Mrs. Susan Holland of the Bureau of Labor Statistics for making available to them certain of the data prior to their publication. Of course, they alone are responsible for the analysis and conclusions. The calculations were conducted at the University of Pennsylvania and Ohio University Computer Centers.
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