“Accounting for the Rise of Health Spending and Longevity,” by Raquel Fonseca, Pierre-Carl Michaud, Arie Kapteyn, Titus Galama (Discussion Paper No. 7622, September 2013, .pdf format, 56p.). Note: Links to the abstract and full-text can be found at:
www.iza.org/en/webcontent/publications/papers/viewAbstract?dp_id=7622
“The fragility of the future and the tug of the past: Longevity in Latin America and the Caribbean,” by Alberto Palloni and Laeticia Souza (Vol. 29, Article 21, September 2013, .pdf format, p.543-578).
“The Longevity of Academicians: Evidence from the Saxonian Academy of Sciences and Humanities in Leipzig,” by Maria Winkler-Dworak and Heiner Kaden (VID Working Paper 03/2013, 2013, .pdf format, 17p.).
Abstract:
This study addresses the mortality of the members of the Saxonian Academy of Sciences and Humanities in Leipzig. In fact, learned societies have been shown to present vanguard groups in the achievement of longevity. We use biographical records from the members of the Saxonian Academy of Sciences from 1846 to 2010 and compare their mortality to German life table estimates, where particularly attention is paid to the mortality differentials between eastern and western Germany. The Saxonian academicians show indeed a higher life expectancy at age 60 than the general German male population, where the gap has been widening since the 1950s. Comparing the life expectancy values for the Saxonian academicians to available estimates of various European learned societies yields a similar longevity, suggesting that the survival of the academicians is less determined by national mortality conditions but that academicians rather share a common health advantage.
“Human Longevity and a New Vision of Aging [Lecture by Natalia and Leonid Gavrilov given at the 3rd Annual Conference of Canadian Association of Retired Persons (CARP) on Aging & Health],” (August 2013, running time 21 minutes 13 seconds).
“Determinants of Exceptional Longevity: Early-Life Conditions, Mid-Life Environment and Parental Characteristics,” by Leonid A. Gavrilov and Natalia S. Gavrilova (April 2013, .pdf format, 51p.). Note: This paper was presented at the PAA Annual Conference on April 12, 2013.
“Evidence on Individual Preferences for Longevity Risk,” by Gaetan Delprat, Marie-Louise Leroux, and Pierre-Carl Michaud (Working Paper No. 4196, April 2013, .pdf format, 19p.). Note: Links to the abstract and full-text can be found at:
www.cesifo-group.de/ifoHome/publications/working-papers/CESifoWP/CESifoWPdetails?wp_id=19087556
A. “Does Mental Productivity Decline with Age? Evidence from Chess Players,” by Marco Bertoni, Giorgio Brunello, and Lorenzo Rocco (Discussion Paper No. 7311, March 2013, .pdf format, 15p.). Note: Links to the abstract and full-text can be found at:
www.iza.org/en/webcontent/publications/papers/viewAbstract?dp_id=7311
B. “Evidence on Individual Preferences for Longevity Risk,” by Gaetan Delprat, Marie-Louise Leroux, and Pierre-Carl Michaud (Discussion Paper No. 7317, March 2013, .pdf format, 19p.). Note: Links to the abstract and full-text can be found at:
www.iza.org/en/webcontent/publications/papers/viewAbstract?dp_id=7317
“Regional hot spots of exceptional longevity in Germany,” by Rembrandt D. Scholz and Sebastian Klusener (WP2012-028, November 2012, .pdf format, 25p.). Note: Links to the abstract and full-text can be found at:
“How to Start a Capital Market in Longevity Risk Transfers,” by David Blake and Enrico Biffis (PI-1207, September 2012, .pdf format, 9p.).
Abstract:
A market in longevity risk transfers can succeed if longevity risk exposures are optimally pooled, tranched, and securitized. This is necessary to deal with the issue of asymmetric information, where the seller or hedger of the exposure has more privately held information about it than any potential investor in the risk. The optimal way to transfer longevity risk is through a principal-at-risk bond specifically designed to minimize the sensitivity of the bond’s value to private information while appealing to investors with different risk appetites.
A. “RPN-6 determines C. elegans longevity under proteotoxic stress conditions,” by David Vilchez, Ianessa Morantte, Zheng Liu, Peter M. Douglas, Carsten Merkwirth, Ana P. C. Rodrigues, Gerard Manning, & Andrew Dillin (Vol. 489, No. 7415, September 13, 2012, p. 263-268).
www.nature.com/nature/journal/v489/n7415/abs/nature11315.html
B. “Impact of caloric restriction on health and survival in rhesus monkeys from the NIA study,” by Julie A. Mattison, George S. Roth, T. Mark Beasley, Edward M. Tilmont, April M. Handy, Richard L. Herbert, Dan L. Longo, David B. Allison, Jennifer E. Young, Mark Bryant, Dennis Barnard, Walter F. Ward, Wenbo Qi, Donald K. Ingram & Rafael de Cabo (Vol. 489, No. 7415, September 13, 2012, p. 318-321).
www.nature.com/nature/journal/v489/n7415/abs/nature11432.html
A. “Consumer Inertia and Firm Pricing in the Medicare Part D Prescription Drug Insurance Exchange,” by Keith M. Marzilli Ericson (w18359, September 2012, .pdf format, 32p.).
Abstract:
I use the Medicare Part D prescription drug insurance market to examine the dynamics of firm interaction with consumers on an insurance exchange. Enrollment data show that consumers face switching frictions leading to inertia in plan choice, and a regression discontinuity design indicates initial defaults have persistent effects. In the absence of commitment to future prices, theory predicts firms respond to inertia by raising prices on existing enrollees, while introducing cheaper alternative plans. The complete set of enrollment and price data from 2006 through 2010 confirms this prediction: older plans have approximately 10% higher premiums than comparable new plans.
B. “Recessions, Older Workers, and Longevity: How Long Are Recessions Good For Your Health?” by Courtney C. Coile, Phillip B. Levine, and Robin McKnight (w18361, September 2012, .pdf format, 31p.).
Abstract:
This paper examines the impact of exposure to higher unemployment rates in the pre-retirement years on subsequent mortality. Although past research has found that recessions reduce contemporaneous mortality, these short-term effects may reverse over time, particularly for older workers. If workers experience an economic downturn in their late 50s, they may face several years of reduced employment and earnings before ‘retiring’ when they reach Social Security eligibility at age 62. They also may experience lost health insurance, and therefore higher financial barriers to health care, through age 65, when Medicare becomes available. All of these experiences could contribute to weaker long-term health outcomes. To examine these hypotheses, we use Vital Statistics mortality data between 1969 and 2008 to generate age-specific cohort survival probabilities at older ages. We then link these survival probabilities to labor market conditions at earlier ages. We also use data from the 1980-2010 March Current Population Surveys and the 1991-2010 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System surveys to explore potential mechanisms for this health effect. Our results indicate that experiencing a recession in one’s late 50s leads to a reduction in longevity. We also find that this exposure leads to several years of reduced employment, health insurance coverage, and health care utilization which may contribute to the lower long-term likelihood of survival.
“Heterogeneity in Expected Longevities,” by Jose-Víctor Ríos-Rull and Josep Pijoan-Mas (Staff Report No. 471, August 2012, .pdf and Post-script format, 38p.).
www.minneapolisfed.org/publications_papers/pub_display.cfm?id=4939
“Robust Hedging of Longevity Risk,” by Andrew J.G. Cairns (PI-1206, August 2012, .pdf format, 33p.).
Abstract:
We consider situations where a pension plan has opted to hedge its longevity risk using an index-based longevity hedging instrument such as a q-forward or deferred longevity swap. The use of index-based hedges gives rise to basis risk, but benefits, potentially, from lower costs to the hedger and greater liquidity. We focus on quantification of optimal hedge ratios and hedge effectiveness and investigate how robust these quantities are relative to inclusion of recalibration risk, parameter uncertainty and Poisson risk. We find that strategies are robust relative to the inclusion of parameter uncertainty and Poisson risk. In contrast, single-instrument hedging strategies are found to lack robustness relative to the inclusion of recalibration risk at the future valuation date, although we also demonstrate that some hedging instruments are more robust than others. To address this problem, we develop multi-instrument hedging strategies that are robust relative to recalibration risk.
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