Current Awareness in Aging Research (CAAR) Report #33--May 11, 2000

CAAR (Current Awareness in Aging Research) is a weekly email report produced by the Center for Demography of Health and Aging at the University of Wisconsin-Madison that helps researchers keep up to dateith the latest developments in the field. For more information, including an archive of back issues and subscription information see:

http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/cdha/caar/caar-index.htm

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NOTE: Some of you may not have received last week's CAAR report (No. 32, May 4, 2000), due to outages and shutdowns caused by the ILOVEYOU virus and worm. If you did not receive a copy of last week's report, it is available at the CAAR website:

http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/cdha/caar/caar32-may-4-2000.htm

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I. Data:

1. IPUMS SURVEY WITH REGARD TO CENSUS 2000 PUMS: Below is a note from Prof. Steven Ruggles of the IPUMS project at the University of Minnesota regarding an online survey about the possible significant reductions in level of subject and geographic detail in the 2000 PUMS.

The Census Bureau is considering significant reductions in the level of subject and geographic detail for the 2000 PUMS files in order to enhance confidentiality. As the Principal Investigator of the IPUMS project and chair of the ICPSR Census 2000 Committee, I have been asked to attend a meeting at the Bureau later this month to report how these changes might affect users. No final decisions have yet been taken, but various measures are under discussion. Although I do not have the specifics of any proposals, I have heard that they include such steps as grouping ages for persons 65 or older, providing only broad occupational groupings, reducing the available detail on race, ancestry, and income, and reducing geographic detail. I would like to get your feedback on these issues before I meet with the Bureau so I can fairly represent the concerns of IPUMS users. I would therefore appreciate it if you could complete the brief survey. I need the results as soon as possible. The survey will remain open until May 16th, but it will help greatly if you could complete the survey today or tomorrow. A high response rate will strengthen the credibility of the results. I appreciate your help on this, especially given the very short notice.

Survey:

http://www.ipums.umn.edu/~ipums/survey.html
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2. LIS: The Luxembourg Income Study has released an updated version of the United States survey for 1997 and added new data for the 1995, 1996, and 1997 US State File. For revision and addition details see:

http://lissy.ceps.lu/Whatsnew.htm

May 4 and May 11, 2000 entries.

LIS Database Information:

http://lissy.ceps.lu/whatis.htm

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II. Reports and articles

3. _DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH_ ARTICLE: _DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH_, the peer reviewed scholarly journal provided by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, has released a new article: "Family Dynamics of 63 Million (in 1990) to more than 330 Million (in 2050) Elders in China," by Zeng Yi and Linda George (Vol. 2-5, May 2000, HTML and .pdf formats, 48p.).

>From the Abstract:

This paper confirms very rapid increase in proportion of elderly, huge numbers of elders, an extraordinarily rapid increase of oldest old, and more serious aging problems in rural than urban areas in China. Comparative data analysis on family dynamics of elderly, males vs. females, younger elders vs. oldest old, rural vs. urban, and 1982 vs. 1990 are presented. Family household projection reveals that the family and living arrangements of the Chinese elderly would change dramatically during the first half of 21st century. Drawing upon our empirical findings, we present policy recommendations on strengthening family support system, establishing an old age insurance program in rural areas, favourable policy for elderly women in consideration of their disadvantaged status, and smoothly transiting to a two-child plus spacing policy.

http://www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol2/5/default.htm

Click on "PDF" icon at bottom of the right frame for .pdf version.
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4. PRB PERIODICAL: The Population Reference Bureau has released the latest _Population Bulletin_ (Vol. 55, No. 1, March 2000) in electronic (HTML) format. The Bulletin is titled "Attaining Global Health: Challenges and Opportunities," by Scott C. Ratzan, Gary L. Filerman, and John W. LeSar.

http://www.prb.org/pubs/bulletin/bu55-1.htm
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5. _PNAS_ ABSTRACT: "D-B-Hydroxybutyrate protects neurons in models of Alzheimer's and Parkinson's disease," by Yoshihiro Kashiwaya, Takao Takeshima, Nozomi Mori, Kenji Nakashima, Kieran Clarke, and Richard L. Veech (_Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences_, Vol. 97, No. 10, May 9, 2000, p. 5440-5444). Note: Your organization may have access to full electronic text (HTML and .pdf formats) of this article. Check your organization's library.

http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/abstract/97/10/5440
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6. HHS FACTSHEET: The US Department of Health and Human Services has released a factsheet titled "HHS Programs and Initiatives For Aging America."

http://www.hhs.gov/news/press/2000pres/20000503b.html
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7. HUD REPORT: The Department of Housing and Urban Development, has released "Evaluation Report of FHA's Home Equity Conversion Mortgage Insurance Demonstration," by David T. Rodda, Christopher Herbert, and Hin-Kin (Ken) Lam (Contract No. DU100C000005978, Taks Order No. 12, March 2000, .pdf format, 178p.). "Housing and Urban Development Secretary Andrew Cuomo reported to Congress that reverse mortgages have become increasingly popular among cash-poor but equity-rich senior citizens, with the number of reverse mortgages more than quadrupling since they first became available in the early 1990s."

http://www.huduser.org/publications/hsgfin/noplace.html

Click on "Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) for full text.
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8. _NEJM_ ABSTRACT: "The Effect of Longevity on Spending for Acute and Long-Term Care," by Brenda C. Spillman, and James Lubitz (_New England Journal of Medicine_, Vol. 342, No. 19, May 11, 2000). Note: Full electronic text of _NEJM_ is available to subscribers to the print edition.

http://www.nejm.org/content/2000/0342/0019/1409.asp
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9. _JAMA_ ARTICLES:

A. "Serum Uric Acid and Cardiovascular Mortality: The NHANES I Epidemiologic Follow-up Study, 1971-1992," by Jing Fang and Michael H. Alderman (_Journal of the American Medical Association_ Vol. 283, No. 18, May 10, 2000, p. 2404-2410, HTML and .pdf formats).

http://jama.ama-assn.org/issues/v283n18/full/joc91630.html

Click on "PDF OF THIS ARTICLE" in the left frame for .pdf version.

B. The World in Medicine: "Promising Alzheimer Drug," by Rebecca Voelker (_Journal of the American Medical Association_ Vol. 283, No. 18, May 10, 2000, p. 2379, HTML and .pdf formats).

http://jama.ama-assn.org/issues/v283n18/full/jwm00003-3.html

Click on "PDF OF THIS ARTICLE" in the left frame for .pdf version.
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10. MEPS REPORT: The US Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality's Medical Expenditures Panel Survey has released "Health Insurance Status of the Civilian Noninstitutionalized Population: 1998," by J. Rhoads, E. Brown, and J. Vistnes (MEPS Research Findings No. 11. AHRQ Pub. No. 00-0023, April 2000, .pdf format, 36p.). "This report from the 1998 Medical Expenditures Panel Survey (MEPS) provides preliminary estimates of the health insurance status of civilian noninstitutionalized U.S. population during the first half of 1998, including the size and characteristics of the population with private health insurance, with public insurance, and without any health care coverage."

http://www.meps.ahcpr.gov/papers/00-0023/00-0023.pdf
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11. _US NEWS AND WORLD REPORT_ ARTICLE: "Grabbing on to the third rail: Bush takes a chance on Social Security as Gore leaps at the bait," by Steven Butler (_US News and World Report_, May 15, 2000).

http://www.usnews.com/usnews/issue/000515/social.htm

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III. Working Papers

12. NBER (NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH) WORKING PAPERS IN AGING:

A. "Long-Term Declines in Disability Among Older Men: Medical Care, Public Health, and Occupational Change," by Dora L. Costa (W7605, March 2000, .pdf format, 44p.).

>From the Abstract:

Functional disability (difficulty in walking , difficulty in bending, paralysis, blindness in at least one eye, and deafness in at least one ear) in the United States has fallen at an average annual rate of 0.6 percent among men age 50 to 74 from the early twentieth century to the early 1990s. Twenty-four to 41 percent of this decline is attributable to innovations in medical care, 37 percent to reduced chronic disease rates, and the remainder is unexplained. The portion due to reduced chronic disease rates can be subdivided into the 9 percent accounted for by reduced infectious disease rates (particularly rheumatic fever, malaria, typhoid, and acute respiratory infections), the 7 percent accounted for by occupational shifts away from manual labor and to white collar jobs, and the 21 percent that is unexplained.

http://papers.nber.org/papers/W7605

Click on "PDF" for full text.

B. "The Power of Suggestion: Inertia in 401(k) Participation and Savings Behavior," by Brigitte C. Madrian, and Dennis F. Shea (W7682, May 2000, .pdf format, 68p.).

>From the Abstract:

In this paper, we analyze the 401(k) savings behavior of employees in a large U.S. corporation before and after an interesting change in the company 401(k) plan. Before the plan change, employees were required to affirmatively elect participation in the 401(k) plan. After the plan change, employees were automatically and immediately enrolled in the 401(k) plan unless they made a negative election to opt out of the plan. Although none of the economic features of the plan changed, this switch to automatic enrollment dramatically changed the savings behavior of employees. We have two key findings. First, 401(k) participation is significantly higher under automatic enrollment. Second, the default contribution rate and investment allocation chosen by the company under automatic enrollment has a strong influence on the savings behavior of 401(k) participants. A substantial fraction of 401(k) participants hired under automatic enrollment exhibit what we call "default" behavior--sticking to both the default contribution rate and the default fund allocation even though very few employees hired before automatic enrollment picked this particular outcome. This "default" behavior appears to result both from participant inertia and from many employees taking the default as investment advice on the part of the company. Overall, these results are consistent with the notion that large changes in savings behavior can be motivated simply by the "power of suggestion." These findings have important implications for the optimal design of 401(k) savings plans as well as for any type of Social Security reform that includes personal accounts over which individuals have some amount of control. They also shed light more generally on the importance of both economic and non-economic factors in the determination of individual savings behavior.

http://papers.nber.org/papers/W7682

Click on "PDF" for full text.
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13. UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN POPULATION STUDIES CENTER: "Sexual Activity among the Older Population in Thailand: Evidence from a Nationally Representative Survey," by John Knodel and Napaporn Chayovan (Elderly in Asia Report 00-55, May 2000, .pdf format). Note: At this time, the abstract only is electronically available for this paper. Ordering instructions for print copies are available at the site (click on "Order" at the bottom of the page).

Abstract:

http://bose.psc.isr.umich.edu/pubs/FMPro?-db=items.fp3&-lay=web&-format=abs.html&-RecID=33878&-find
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14. IIASA (INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS [AUSTRIA]): "The Future Population of China: Prospects to 2045 by Place of Residence and by Level of Education," by G-Y Cao (IR-00-026, April 2000, .pdf and PostScript formats, 44p.).

>From the Abstract:

Using methods of multi-state population projection, the population of China up to 2045 was studied by simultaneous interacting states of educational categories and urban/rural residence in three alternative future paths. The results anticipate that in 2045, more than 60% of the population will have secondary education, while this was the case for only 8% of the population in 1964. This study not only produces educational projections, it also provides regular population projections by age, sex, and urban/rural place of residence. In the coming decades, China will reach its peak in total population, working population, and aging population in different times under low, medium and high scenarios. According to results of this study, an important question will face Chinese policy makers in the context of sustainable socioeconomic and environmental development: How should the anticipated socioeconomic developments in the coming decades be figured into the demographic trade-off between rapid fertility decline in the near term and rapid population aging in the long term?

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/cgi-bin/pubsrch?IR00026

Click on the "PDF" or "PS" icons for full text.
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15. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF CHICAGO: "The Effects Of Health, Wealth, And Wages On Labor Supply And Retirement Behavior," by Eric French (WP-2000-2, March 2000, .pdf format, 48p.).

>From the Abstract:

This paper analyzes the effects of wages and the Social Security System on labor supply over the life cycle. I present a model of labor supply and retirement behavior that includes a savings decision, uncertainty, and a non-negativity constraint on assets. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I estimate life cycle profiles for labor force participation rates, hours worked, and assets. Using the Method of Simulated Moments, I match the estimated profiles to profiles simulated by a dynamic structural model. Estimated parameters produce simulated profiles that match many aspects of the estimated profiles, including the high job exit rates at ages 62 and 65. Simulations suggest that a 20% reduction in Social Security benefits would cause individuals to delay job exit from the labor market in order to develop sucient financial assets, increasing labor force participation rates from 28% to 35% at age 62.

http://research.frbchi.org/WorkingPapers/A_WP-2000-2.html

Click on "View Online" at the bottom of the page for full text.

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IV. Journal Tables of Contents (check your library for availability)

16. CARL Uncover Journal Tables of Contents. Follow the instructions below to access tables of contents. CARL Uncover provides fee based document delivery services for selected journals.

A. Point your browser to:

http://uncweb.carl.org:80/

B. click on "Search Uncover"
C. click on "Search Uncover Now"
D. Type the Journal Name in the search box and click the radio button "Journal Title Browse"
E. click on the journal name
F. click on "journal issues"
G. click on the issues identified below

American Journal of Epidemiology (Vol. 151, No. 9, May 1, 2000).

American Journal of Public Health (Vol. 90, No. 5, May, 2000). Note: This journal is available in electronic full text in the EBSCO Host Academic Search Elite Database and the ProQuest Research Library. Check your library for the availability of these databases and this issue.

American Sociological Review (Vol. 65, No. 2, April 2000). Note: This journal is available in electronic full text in the ProQuest Research Library. Check your library for the availability of this database and this issue.

Journal of Gerontological Social Work (Vol. 32, No. 4, 1999).

Social Work (Vol. 45, No. 3, May 2000). Note: This journal is available in electronic full text in the ProQuest Research Library. Check your library for the availability of this database and this issue.

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V. Funding Opportunities

17. NIH NOTICE: Revised Policy For IRB Review of Human Subjects Protocols in Grant Applications. (NOT-OD-00-031) Release Date: May 1, 2000.

http://grants.nih.gov/grants/guide/notice-files/NOT-OD-00-031.html

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VI. Conferences

18. NCHS: The Center for Disease Control's National Center for Health Statistics will have its 2000 Data User's Conference July 26-28, 2000 in Bethesda, Maryland. For more information see:

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/events/duc2000/duc_invitation.htm

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VII. Legislation Information Updates

19. SENATE COMMITTEE ON FINANCE: "Medicare Governance: the Health Care Financing Administration's Role and Readiness in Reform," a hearing held May 4, 2000.

Hearing Testimony:

http://www.senate.gov/~finance/w5-4-0.htm
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20. HOUSE COMMITTEE ON WAYS AND MEANS SOCIAL SECURITY SUBCOMMITTEE: "Social Security Representative Payees," a hearing held May 4, 2000.

Hearing Testimony:

http://www.house.gov/ways_means/socsec/106cong/ss-16wit.htm
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21. SENATE SPECIAL COMMITTEE ON AGING PUBLICATIONS: The Senate Special Committee on Aging has released the following publications. Note: These publications are available in print only, and can be ordered free of charge at the site.

106-14: Going the Distance: Senior Athletes and the Benefits of Exercise
106-15: Consumers Assess the Nursing Home Initiative
106-16: Long-Term Care and the Role of Family Caregivers: A Rhode Island Perspective
106-17: The Boomers are Coming: The Challenge of Family Caregiving
106-18: Nursing Home Residents: Short-Changed by Staff Shortages
106-20: The Boomers are Coming: Challenges of Aging in the New Millennium

http://www.senate.gov/~aging/pubs.htm

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VIII. Websites of Interest

22. MEDICARE.GOV ENHANCEMENTS: The US Health Care Financing Administration's well known Medicare site has recently added user enhancements, including information about the "number of plan members who have disenrolled from their Medicare+Choice plans" (Medicare Health Plan Compare) and staffing information for nursing homes nationwide, including "the number of registered nurses, licensed practical or vocational nurses and certified nursing assistants in each nursing home" (Nursing Home Compare).

http://www.medicare.gov/

 

Jack Solock
Data Librarian--Center for Demography and Ecology and Center for Demography of Health and Aging
4470 Social Science
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Madison, WI 53706
608-262-9827
jsolock@ssc.wisc.edu