Current Awareness in Aging Research (CAAR) Report #12--December 9, 1999

CAAR (Current Awareness in Aging Report) is a weekly email report produced by the Center for Demography of Health and Aging at the University of Wisconsin-Madison that helps researchers keep up to date with the latest developments in the field. For more information, including an archive of back issues and subscription information see:

http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/cdha/caar/caar-index.htm

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CORRECTION: Last week's CAAR (CAAR #11) provided the address of a news release about the Met Life Juggling Act Study, along with a not very helpful tip about getting the study. The reason for this was that the address of the news release originally pointed to a downloadable study summary, which was removed from the Brandeis server between last Tuesday and Thursday (11/30 and 12/2/99). Interested users can find information about obtaining a free copy of the study at the following address:

http://heller.brandeis.edu/national/metpress.htm

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I. Data:

1. CENSUS BUREAU: The Census Bureau has released 1998 estimates for Housing Units, Households, Households by Age of Householder, and Persons per Household for States.

Press Release which links to data ("state estimates"):

http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/1999/cb99-232.html
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2. CENSUS BUREAU/BLS FERRET: The Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics FERRET Data Extractor has added Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) 1996 Panel Wave 2 Topical Modules (including household relationships, work disability history, educational history, education and training, marital history, fertility history, and migration history) to its collection. In addition, updated data for the 1996 Panel Wave 3 Core has been made available. Note that these additions may not show up on the FERRET home page, but they are available. The raw data files for these datasets are being made available through FERRET's FTP site.

FERRET:
http://ferret.bls.census.gov:80/

FERRET FTP:
http://www.bls.census.gov/ferretftp.htm

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II. Reports and articles

3. SOCIAL SECURITY ADVISORY BOARD REPORT--"The 1999 Technical Panel of Assumptions and Methods Report to the Social Security Advisory Board," (November 1999).

>From the Executive Summary:

The Panel recommends a number of changes to the actuarial assumptions underlying the Trustees Report. In each case, the Panel was guided by trying to assess the best information available to it, regardless of the impact on actuarial balance. The largest changes recommended--in terms of their impact on actuarial balance--were to increase projections of life expectancy and real earnings growth, and to decrease the real interest rate on government securities. The first and last would decrease actuarial balance, the middle one increase it, with a net impact of worsening the actuarial deficit by about 0.5 percent of taxable payroll. At the same time, the Panel recognizes the uncertain nature of any projection based on the uncertainty surrounding the economy and the future demographic characteristics of the population. Several of its later suggestions would attempt to demonstrate how the sensitivity of the program to alternative assumptions is affected by different legal designs, such as indexing for life expectancy, prices, or wages.

http://www.ssab.gov/Rpt99_TOC.html
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4. AARP REPORT: "Out-of-Pocket Spending on Health Care by Medicare Beneficiaries Age 65 and Older: 1999 Projections," by David Gross and Normandy Brangan (AARP Public Policy Institute, IB41, .pdf format, 15p.).

>From the Abstract:

Beneficiaries age 65 and older will spend a projected average of about $2,430 -- 19% of their income -- on health care needs in 1999. And a quarter of Medicare beneficiaries will face out-of-pocket expenses over $3000. The costs of home care or long-term nursing home care are not included in these estimates. In this 15-page PPI Issue Brief, David Gross and Normandy Brangan estimate average out-of-pocket expenditures in 1999 for such categories of spending as Medicare deductibles and co-insurance, Medicare Part B and private insurance premiums, prescription drugs, and dental care.

http://research.aarp.org/health/ib41_hspend.html
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5. _SCIENCE_ ARTICLE: "Stimulation of Bone Formation in Vitro and in Rodents by Statins," by G. Mundy, R. Garrett, S. Harris, J. Chan, D. Chen, G. Rossini, B. Boyce, M. Zhao, and G. Gutierrez (_Science_, Volume 286, Number 5446; Issue of 3 Dec 1999, pp. 1946 - 1949). Note: Full text of the article may or may not be available at your organization. Check your organization library or simply click on full text and see if it works. Article is available in HTML and .pdf format.)

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/286/5446/1946
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6. CBO REPORT: "The Budget for Fiscal Year 2000: An End-of-Session Summary," (Congressional Budget Office, Dec. 2, 1999).

http://www.cbo.gov/otherdoc.html

and click on "The Budget for Fiscal Year 2000: An End-of-Session Summary".
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7. GAO REPORT: "Social Security: Evaluating Reform Proposals," (General Accounting Office GAO/AIMD/HEHS-00-29, November 1999, .pdf format, 72p.).

http://www.gao.gov/new.items/a300029.pdf

Note: GAO Internet addresses are valid for only a limited period of time. After that time, documents can be found by searching the Government Printing Office:

http://www.access.gpo.gov/su_docs/aces/aces160.shtml

and searching on title or report number.
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8. GAO TESTIMONY: "Social Security: The President's Proposal," (General Accounting Office (GAO/T-HEHS/AIMD-00-43), Statement of David M. Walker, Comptroller General of the United States, November 1999, .pdf format, 22p.).

http://www.gao.gov/new.items/h100043t.pdf

Note: GAO Internet addresses are valid for only a limited period of time. After that time, documents can be found by searching the Government Printing Office:

http://www.access.gpo.gov/su_docs/aces/aces160.shtml

and searching on title or report number.
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9. _JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION_ ARTICLE: "Continuing Screening Mammography in Women Aged 70 to 79 Years: Impact on Life Expectancy and Cost-effectiveness, by Karla Kerlikowske, Peter Salzmann, Kathryn A. Phillips, Jane A. Cauley, and Steve R. Cummings (_JAMA. 1999; 282:2156-2163).

>From the Abstract:

Mammography is recommended and is cost-effective for women aged 50 to 69 years, but the value of continuing screening mammography after age 69 years is not known. In particular, older women with low bone mineral density (BMD) have a lower risk of breast cancer and may benefit less from continued screening. This analysis suggests that continuing mammography screening after age 69 years results in a small gain in life expectancy and is moderately cost-effective in those with high BMD and more costly in those with low BMD. Women's preferences for a small gain in life expectancy and the potential harms of screening mammography should play an important role when elderly women are deciding about screening.

HTML:
http://jama.ama-assn.org/issues/v282n22/full/jsc90092.html

PDF:
http://jama.ama-assn.org/issues/v282n22/pdf/jsc90092.pdf
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10. FORBES ARTICLE: "Gray Market Music," by Peter Newcomb (_Forbes_, December 13, 1999).

http://www.forbes.com/forbes/99/1213/6414062b.htm

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III. Working Papers

11. UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CENTER FOR DEMOGRAPHY AND ECOLOGY: " Elderly Living Arrangements Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, and Romania," by Susan De Vos and Gary Sandefur (CDE Working Paper #99-14, October 1999, .pdf format, 40p.).

>From the Abstract:

This paper examines the living arrangements of elderly people in five European countries: Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland and Romania. The paper discusses institutionalization, "headship" rates, "relationship to reference person," a general household composition scheme for elders, and solitary living. The living arrangements of elders in Finland in 1990 appeared similar to that of other Northern European countries; the situation in the Czech Republic appeared somewhat intermediate between Northern and Southeastern Europe; and the situations in Bulgaria, Estonia and Romania appeared more "traditional." For instance, 42 percent of currently unmarried elders in Bulgaria in 1992 resided with a child compared with 21 percent in the Czech Republic and only 12 percent in Finland. On the other hand, married elderly in all the countries tended to live by themselves (more so again in Finland and the Czech Republic) and few elders in any country lived with other relatives.

http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/cde/cdewp/99-14.pdf
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12. FEDEA (FUNDACION DE ESTUDIOS DE ECONOMIA APLICADA) STUDIES ON THE SPANISH ECONOMY:

A. "Redistribution in the Spanish Pension System: An Approach to its Life Time Effects," by Joan Gil and G. Lopez-Casasnovas (EEE-55, 1999, .pdf format, 28p.).

>From the Abstract:

This paper computes first the internal rates of return of different population cohorts. Secondly, we study the intragenerational aspects by
calculating the returns over life-time contributions for workers of different categories, grouped by earnings, gender and marital status.
Under a set of assumptions on contribution rates and wage profiles -in absence of actual data on longitudinal contributions- we show the
existence of significant intergenerational effects. They favour older cohorts due basically to the contribution bases applied during the 60s and 70s. Some of these effects follow a rather erratic pattern, mostly due to the changes over time of the definition of the maximum allowable contribution. These limits play a similar crucial role for the intragenerational analysis, although in general, the social security deal
favours high income individuals, women and married males.

ftp://ftp.fedea.es/pub/eee/eee55.pdf

B. "Beyond the Toledo Agreement: The Intergenerational Impact of the Spanish Pension Reform," by Holger Bonin, Joan Gil, and Concepcio Patxot (EEE-38, April 1999, .pdf format, 28p.).

>From the Abstract:

The paper investigates the intergenerational impact of the Spanish public pension system after the 1997 Pension Reform Act. Using a Generational Accounting framework we find that maintaining the new legal setting could leave future generations with liabilities as high as 176 percent of base year GDP. As the recent reform measures have been insufficient to achieve sustainability of the current pension system, we also analyse the impact of alternative reform strategies. Within the current pay-as-you-go setting, a further improvement of the tax-benefit linkage in the original spirit of the Toledo Agreement is shown to yield the intergenerationally most balanced outcome, compared to an increase in retirement age or an expansion of public subsidies financed through indirect taxes. Finally, we investigate the generational impact of a move toward a partially funded pension system which could restore the intergenerational balance.

ftp://ftp.fedea.es/pub/eee/eee38.pdf
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13. TILBBURG UNIVERSITY (NETHERLANDS) INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL SECURITY
RESEARCH (TISSER) WORK AND ORGANISATION RESEARCH CENTER (WORC):
"Marketisation of Social Security in the Netherlands : A Review of the Polder Route to Privatisation of the Sickness and the Disability
Insurance," by R. Muffels and H.J. Dirven (WORC paper Int. reg. no 99.10.03, .pdf format, 45p.).

http://cwis.kub.nl/~fsw_2/asz/tisser/mark_pap.pdf
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IV. Journal Tables of Contents (check your library for availability)

14. _Journal of Health Economics_ (Vol. 18 No. 6, December 1999). Note that only the table of contents is available at this time. Abstracts and full text (.pdf format) of articles may be available to your organization. Check your organization's library or click on "Tables of Contents/Abstracts" for abstracts and/or full text to see if full text is available.

http://www.elsevier.nl/locate/jnlnr/05393

and click on "Tables of Contents".
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15. _Archives of Gerontology and Geriatrics_ (Vol. 29, NO. 3, 1999)

http://www.elsevier.nl/locate/jnlnr/08003

and click on "Tables of Contents".
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16. _Experimental Aging Research_ (Vol. 26, No. 1, January 2000). Note: This journal is available in full text in the EBSCO Host Academic Search Elite Database. Check your library for the availability of Academic Search Elite and of this issue.

http://www.catchword.co.uk/titles/tandf/0361073X/contp1-1.htm
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17. _Reviews in Clinical Gerontology_ (Vol. 9, No. 3, 1999).

http://www.journals.cup.org/owa_dba/owa/issues?sjid=RCG&svid=9&siid=3

Note: Clicking on Article titles provides abstracts. Also, this issue contains a review article "Gerontology on the World Wide Web," by Richard Dean Jenkins.
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18. CARL Uncover Journal Tables of Contents. Follow the instructions below to access tables of contents. CARL Uncover provides fee-based faxed document delivery articles for selected journals.

A. Point your browser to:

http://uncweb.carl.org:80/

B. click on "Search Uncover"
C. click on "Search Uncover Now"
D. Type the Journal Name in the search box and click the radio button "Journal Title Browse"
E. click on the journal name
F. click on "journal issues"
G. click on the issues identified below

_American Journal of Public Health_ (Vol. 89, No. 12, December 1999). Note: This journal is available in full text in the EBSCO Host Academic Search Elite Database and the ProQuest Research Library. Check your library for the availability of either of these two databases and of this issue.

_Educational Gerontology_ (Vol. 25, No. 7, 1999). Note: This journal is available in full text in the EBSCO Host Academic Search Elite Database. Check your library for the availability of either of this database and of this issue.

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V. Legislation Information Updates

19. SENATE SPECIAL COMMITTEE ON AGING COMMITTEE PRINT: _Passport to Independence: Battling the Leading Causes of Disability Among Seniors_ (Senate Special Committee on Aging Committee Print 106-9, no electronic text available, but the print copy can be ordered at the site).

http://www.senate.gov/~aging/pubs.htm

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VI. Websites of Interest

20. NATIONAL ACADEMY ON AN AGING SOCIETY DATA PROFILES: NAAS is releasing approximately one data profile per month based on major national surveys including the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), National Health Interview Survey on Disability (NHIS-D), Health and Retirement Survey (HRS), and Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD). Each data profile so far is six pages long and in .pdf format. The first two are "Chronic Conditions: A Challenge for the 21st Century" (Nov. 1999), and "Hearing Loss: A Growing Problem that Affects Quality of Life." This project is supported by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. NAAS is a nonpartisan policy institute of the Gerontological Society of America.

http://www.agingsociety.org/profiles.htm


Jack Solock
Data Librarian--Center for Demography and Ecology
4470 Social Science
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Madison, WI 53706
608-262-9827
jsolock@ssc.wisc.edu