Abbasi-Shavazi, Mohammad Jalal and Gavin W. Jones. "Socio-economic
and Demographic Setting of Muslim Populations," No. 86.
September 2001. 27 pages.
Abstract: None available.
http://demography.anu.edu.au/workingpapers.shtml
Bauman, K. J. "Home Schooling in the United States: Trends and
Characteristics." WP 53. August 2001. 33 pages.
Abstract:
According to widely-repeated estimates, as many as
two million American children are schooled
at home, with the number growing as much as 15 to 20 percent per year. At the
same time, however, home schooling has
received little attention compared with other recent changes in
the educational system, such as the growth of charter schools. It could be
argued that home schooling may have a much
larger impact on educational system, both in the short and long run.
This report uses the 1994 October CPS, and the
National Household Education Survey of 1996
and 1999 to determine the extent of home schooling. It presents social,
demographic and geographic characteristics
of households that engage in home schooling and examines the potential
for future growth. It is found that home schooling is less prevalent than shown
in earlier estimates, but that the potential
for growth is large.
http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/population/www/techpap.html
Hill, Kenneth, George Bicego and Mary Mahy. "Childhood Mortality in Kenya: An
Examination of Trends and Determinants in the Late 1980s to Mid 1990s."
WP 01-01. August 2001. 16 pages.
Abstract:
After Independence in the early 1960s, child mortality in Kenya fell rapidly. Until around 1980, the under 5 mortality rate (U5MR), the probability of dying by
age 5, fell at an annual rate of about 4 percent per annum. This rate of decline slowed in the early 1980s, to about 2 per cent per annum. Recent data from the
1998 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey showed that, far from declining, the U5MR increased by as much as 25 percent from the late 1980s to the mid 1990s. This adverse
trend coincided with a number of other adverse trends: stagnation in growth of per capita income, declining levels of immunization, falling school enrolment, and the
emergence of an HIV/AIDS epidemic. On a more positive note, fertility fell by about 30 percent from the mid 1980s to the mid 1990s. Controversy surrounds the
factors responsible for the increase in child mortality in the 1990s, and the objective of this paper is to clarify the situation. Data from the 1993 and 1998 DHSs have
been merged into a single data set, and multivariate analysis used to examine the factors associated with mortality risks in childhood. Dummy variables were used to
represent different three-year time periods, from 1984-86 to 1996-98. Socioeconomic controls, including mother¹s education, an indicator of household wealth,
urban/rural residence, and indicators of health service utilization, plus controls for reproductive dynamics
such as age of mother at the birth, birth order, sex and preceding birth interval, were developed. In addition, an indicator of the HIV epidemic, the prevalence
of HIV in the district of birth at the time of each child¹s birth, was developed. With no controls, the models confirmed an increase in mortality of about 25 percent. Including socioeconomic and biodemographic controls tended
to strengthen the upward trend in mortality; in other words, had there been no changes in these factors, child mortality would have been expected to decline.
Introducing controls for health variables immunization, pregnancy and delivery care, prevalence of childhood diseases and maternal and child malnutrition also did
not alter the underlying trends substantially. Thus rising child mortality could not be explained by socioeconomic, biodemographic or health status factors. Including
the prevalence of HIV in the models, however, changed the underlying trends fundamentally, from sharp increase to monotonic decline. Although models of this sort
cannot demonstrate causation, only association, the HIV epidemic appears to be the most probable cause of the recent increases in child mortality in Kenya. Of the
health variables, the only one found to be significantly protective was immunization coverage.
http://popctr.jhsph.edu/publications/wp/index.html
Hill, Kenneth. "Methods for Measuring Adult Mortality in Developing Countries: A Comparative
Review." WP 01-02. August 2001. 24 pages.
Abstract:
No consensus has emerged on how to estimate adult mortality in countries lacking complete vital registration of deaths and accurate periodic censuses. This paper
applies a range of methods to census, registration and survey data for Guatemala for the period from 1981 to 1994. The findings are less than conclusive because of
marked errors in the census populations. Methods using intercensal survival perform very poorly, giving rise to results that are hard to interpret. Methods using the
distribution of deaths by age and rates of change of the population by age appear to work better, but still give rise to substantially different results. Simulations suggest
that a combination of two methods appears to work well. In the Guatemala case, survival of mother appears to over-estimate female adult mortality, whereas survival
of siblings appears to underestimate adult mortality. A new method for analyzing intercensal changes in cohort proportions with surviving mother, presented in the
paper, gives results broadly consistent with estimates based on adjusted registered deaths
http://popctr.jhsph.edu/publications/wp/index.html
Bishai, David. "Does the Law of Diminishing Returns Apply to Infant Mortality Decline?"
WP 01-03. September 2001. 16 pages.
Abstract:
Objective: This paper examines time series data on infant mortality from 21 countries to demonstrate an appropriate test of the hypothesis that percentage reductions
in infant mortality are larger when infant mortality is lower. Prior research expounding this hypothesis has dubbed it "the Matthew effect". Method: Time series for
infant mortality can be modeled as X t = m + q1 X t-1 +e t where e t is identically and independently distributed. If q1=1 it is easily demonstrated that the time series
has an asymptotic distribution with infinite variance. The correct test to apply in this situation is the Dickey-Fuller test which we use to test the statistical significance of
q1 in a regression analysis of Dlog IMR t = m + q1 log IMR t-1 +e t. Evidence that q1 is significant and negative
would support the claim that there is a Matthew Effect in infant mortality. This paper uses time series data on IMR from 21 nations for 1870-1988. Several additional lagged values of Dlog IMR were appended
using an Akaike Indicator Criterion to select the preferred specification. Transformations of IMR other than simple logarithms were explored.
Results: With the preferred specification, the Dickey-Fuller test rejected the presence of any Matthew Effect in all but three countries. The rejection of a Matthew
Effect was robust to alternative specifications of the lag structure of IMR and to various transformations of IMR other than logarithmic.
Conclusion: Based on 20th century data there is scarce evidence that percentage reductions in infant mortality are generally smaller in higher mortality countries.
Large percentage reductions in infant mortality are possible for countries at any stage in economic development and are likely to be reflective of durable
advances in human knowledge, social institutions, and physical capital.
http://popctr.jhsph.edu/publications/wp/index.html
Jere R. Behrman, Hans-Peter Kohler and Susan Cotts Watkins. "How
Can We Measure the Causal Effects of Social Networks Using Observational Data?
Evidence from the Diffusion of Family Planning and AIDS Worries in South Nyanza
District, Kenya." WP 2001-022.
July 2001. 50 pages.
Abstract:
This study presents estimates that social networks exert causal and substantial
influences on individuals’ attitudes and
behaviors. The study explicitly allows for the possibility that social networks
are not chosen randomly, but rather that important characteristics such as
unobserved preferences and unobserved
community characteristics determine not only the outcomes of interest but
also the informal conversational networks in which they are discussed.
Longitudinal survey data from rural Kenya on
family-planning and AIDS are used to estimate the impact of social networks while controlling for their unobserved
determinants. There are four major findings: First, the endogeneity
of social networks can substantially distort the usual cross-sectional estimates
of network influences. Second, social
networks have significant and substantial effects even after controlling for unobserved factors that may determine the nature of
the social networks. Third, these network effects generally
are nonlinear and asymmetric. In particular, they are relatively large for
individuals who have at least one network
partner who is perceived to be using contraceptives or or to be at high risk of HIV/AIDS, which is consistent with S-shaped
diffusion models that have been emphasized in the literature.
Fourth, the effects of networks are not confined to the use of family planning
by women, the focus of much of the
literature on networks in demography, but appear to be more general, influencing
responses to HIV/AIDS, and influencing men as well as women.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/PapersPres.htm
Kögel, Tomas. "Youth dependency and total factor
productivity." WP 2001-030. September 2001. 28 pages.
Abstract:
Recent literature suggests that differences in total factor productivity account
for much disparity among international incomes. Prescott argues the need
for further explaining on this phenomenon (Prescott, 1998). In another literature
there is empirical support for the thesis that age structure affects economic
growth. This paper combines an overlapping generations model with a simple
growth model that incorporates endogenous technological progress. The
model demonstrates that a growing youth dependency ratio (the population below
working age divided by the population of working age) reduces total factor
productivity growth. Further, the paper finds support for this
thesis with the empirical finding that growth of the youth dependency
ratio reduces 'residual' growth, which measures total factor productivity
growth. This finding is robust with respect to various growth accounting
methods.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/PapersPres.htm
Altonji, Joseph G. and Ulrich Doraszelski. "The Role of Permanent Income and Demographics in Black/White
Differences in Wealth." Working Paper No. W8473. September 2001. 62 pages.
Abstract:
We explore the extent to which the huge race gap in wealth can be explained
with properly constructed income and demographic variables. In some instances
we explain the entire wealth gap with income and demographics provided that we
estimate the wealth model on a sample of whites. However, we typically explain
a much smaller fraction when we estimate the wealth model on a black sample.
Using sibling comparisons to control for intergenerational transfers and the
effects of adverse history, we find that differences in income and
demographics are not likely to account for the lower explanatory power of the
black wealth models. Our analysis of growth models of wealth suggests that
differences in savings behavior and/or rates of return play an important role.
http://www.nber.org/new.html
Dang, Thai Thanh, Pablo Antolín, and Howard Oxley.
"Fiscal
Implications of Ageing: Projections of Age-related Spending."
No. 305. September 2001. 57 pages.
Abstract:
This paper provides new projections
on the fiscal impact of age-related spending for OECD countries over the
next half century. These results are based on national models using an agreed
upon set of assumptions about
macroeconomic and demographic developments for all countries. Recent reforms to
pension systems have partly offset
the impact on spending of an increasingly elderly population, and there has been
a major improvement in the
underlying fiscal situation in the 1990s. However, further age-related spending (including old age pensions, health and
spending associated with children) is still projected to increase on average
around 6 to 7 per cent of GDP over the projection period. This calls for
maintaining the reform effort and
intensifying it in several countries, if fiscal sustainability is to be
maintained.
http://www1.oecd.org/eco/wp/onlinewp.htm
Plotnick, Robert D., Se-Ook Jeong, and H. Elizabeth Peters (Cornell University). "How
will welfare reform affect childbearing and family structure decisions?" 01-9.
July 2001. 44 pages.
Abstract: None available.
http://csde.washington.edu/csde/wps/wps.html
Hirschman, Charles and Mark VanLandingham (Tulane University). "Population
Pressure and Fertility in Pre-Transition Thailand." 01-10.
Sept. 2001. 44 pages.
Abstract:
Prior the demographic transition in Thailand, fertility was high, but not
uniformly so. As in other pre-transition
settings, Thai fertility responded to pressures and opportunities created by
socioeconomic structure and land
availability. Drawing upon provincial data from the 1947 and 1960 censuses of Thailand, we find a strong "frontier
effect" on Thai fertility in the 1950s. Fertility was higher in sparsely settled frontier provinces and lower in provinces
with higher population density relative to cultivatable land.
This finding is robust and holds up with controls for agricultural employment,
land quality, and the sex ratio (an
indicator of sex-selective migration). The effect of population pressure lowers
the likelihood of marriage and of marital
fertility. The findings from Thailand are consistent with the research of
Easterlin on the nineteenth century United States and with other pre-transition
societies. We suggest how demographic
transition theory might be broadened to include fertility dynamics in
pre-transition societies.
http://csde.washington.edu/csde/wps/wps.html
O’Connor, Kathleen A. et al. "Urinary
enzyme-immunoassays for population research on reproduction: Estrone conjugates
and pregnanediol-3-glucuronide."
01-11. Sept. 2001. 22 pages.
Abstract:
Background: Detailed monitoring of steroid hormone patterns across
the ovarian cycle, pregnancy, the postpartum period and the transitions to
menarche and menopause requires frequent hormone measurements. Our aim in this
study is to establish and validate enzyme immunoassays for urinary metabolites
of estradiol and progesterone for population level and cross-cultural research
in reproductive biology.
Methods: Three microtiter plate based enzyme-immunoassays (EIAs) are developed and validated for measuring the main urinary metabolites of estradiol and progesterone. Specificity, sensitivity, parallelism, accuracy, and precision of the assays are determined, and the urinary hormone data are compared with serum hormone measures. Performance of the assays using samples from populations in different ecological settings is examined with daily or twice weekly urine specimens collected in the field from US and Bangladeshi women.
Results: The urinary EIA’s are specific, accurate, sensitive, precise, and provide hormone profiles parallel to the serum parent hormones. The assays and specimens are stable and reliable for prospective studies and population level research. The pregnanediol-3-glucuronide (PDG) EIA is useful for a wide range of populations, including those where PDG levels may be quite low. Different urinary estrone metabolite assays are necessary for Bangladesh and US samples, a consequence of population differences in metabolite levels.
Conclusions: These urinary EIA’s are well suited for cost-effective and
efficient processing of the large numbers of specimens used in population level
research on ovarian function. Population variation in hormones and their
metabolites requires consideration when developing and applying urinary assay
methods as indicators of ovarian function.
http://csde.washington.edu/csde/wps/wps.html
Svenn-Erik Mamelund. "The Spanish Influenza among Norwegian
ethnic minorities 1918-1919." 2001-11. Sept. 2001. 46
pages.
Abstract:
There are few previous studies that have applied multivariate methods to analyse
Spanish Influenza mortality, and for the very first time, Spanish Flu morbidity
and case fatality rates are analysed. Previous studies have reported that
indigenous populations were the prime victims of Spanish Influenza. The
explanations put forward in those studies were not convincing, however, as no
controls were made for possibly confounding factors. This paper documents for
the first time that areas with high shares of an indigenous population, the
Norwegian Sami, have high Spanish Influenza mortality and lethality, net of such
confounding factors as wealth, crowding, height, occupational structure,
settlement patterns and diffusion. The cause is probably a lack of inherited and
acquired immunity against influenza among the Sami. Another ethnic Norwegian
minority, Kven (Finnish immigrants and their descendants), however, did not
differ significantly from the Spanish Influenza mortality and lethality of the
Norwegian majority population.
http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/cde/cdewp/2001-11.pdf
Compiled by: Kari Swanson - Library Assistant
Center for Demography and Ecology Information Services
Rm. 4471 Social Science Building
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706-1393 USA
Email: kswanson@ssc.wisc.edu