Recently Published Working Papers in Demography : October, 2001

Center for Demography and Ecology Information Services
University of Wisconsin-Madison
http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/cde/library/papers.htm

International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP)

De Santis, Gustavo.  "Population Ageing in Industrialized Countries: Challenges and Issues."  No. 18.  October 2001.  17 pages.
Abstract:  None Available.
http://www.iussp.org/English%20Site/Publications/7listPRP.htm

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) 

Cutler, David and Ellen Meara.  "Changes in the age distribution of mortality over the 20th century."  October 2001.  #8556.  48 pages.
Abstract:
Mortality has declined continuously in the United States over the course of the 20th century, and at relatively constant rates. But the constancy of mortality reductions masks significant heterogeneity by age, cause, and source. Using historical data on death by age and cause, this paper describes the characteristics of mortality decline over the 20th century. Early in the 20th century, mortality declines resulted from public health and economic measures that improved peoples’ ability to withstand disease.  Because nutrition and public health were more important for the young than the old, mortality reductions were concentrated at younger ages. By mid-century, medical care became more significant and other factors less so. Penicillin and sulfa drugs brought the first mortality reductions at older ages, which were coupled with continuing improvements in health at younger ages. The pattern of mortality reduction was relatively equal by age. In the latter part of the 20th century, death became increasingly medicalized.  Cardiovascular disease mortality was prevented in significant part through medical intervention. Most of the additional years added to life in the last few decades of the 20th century were at older ages.
http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest

Boersch-Supan, Axel, Alexander Ludwig and Joachim Winter.  "Aging and international capital flows."  October 2001.  #8553.  31 pages.
Abstract:
Throughout the world, population aging is a major challenge that will continue well into the 21 st century. While the patterns of the demographic transition are similar in most countries, timing differs substantially, in particular between industrialized and less developed countries. To the extent that capital is internationally mobile, population aging will therefore induce capital flows between countries. In order to quantify these international capital flows, we employ a multi-country overlapping generations model and combine it with long-term demographic projections for several world regions over a 50 year horizon.  Our simulations suggest that capital flows from fast-aging industrial countries (such as Germany and Italy) to the rest of the world will be substantial. Closed-economy models of pension reform are likely to miss quantitatively important effects of international capital mobility.
http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest

Deaton, Angus and Christina Paxson.  "Mortality, income, and income inequality over time in Britain and the United States."  #8534.  October 2001.  48 pages.
Abstract:
We investigate age-specific mortality in Britain and the United States since 1950. Neither trends in income nor in income inequality provide plausible explanations. Britain and the US had different patterns of income growth but similar patterns of mortality decline. Patterns of income inequality were similar in both countries, but adult and elderly mortality rates declined most rapidly during the period when inequality increased. Changes in the rate of mortality decline in the US led changes in Britain by about four years, most notably for infant and older adult mortality where there have been significant technical improvements in treatment. British mortality is lower, but the schedules cross at around age 65.  This pattern was established before Medicare, and most likely comes from rationing by age in Britain.  Merged income, income inequality, and mortality data on an age/year (or cohort/year) basis show no evidence that income has any effect on mortality in Britain. Education is protective, but less so than in the US. Understanding the effect of income on mortality presents many puzzles, between countries, and between analyses at different levels of aggregation.  Our results suggest an important role for medical technology in determining the rate of mortality decline since 1950.
http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest

Population Council. Policy Research Division 

Ezra, Markos.  "Ecological degradation, rural poverty, and migration in Ethiopia: A contextual analysis."  No. 149.  37 pages.
Abstract:
The interrelationships between ecological degradation, poverty, and rural out-migration in Ethiopia are examined using data from a Household and Community Survey conducted in 1994–95. The survey, which covered a sample of 2,000 house-holds, collected retrospective data on changes in household composition, including migration of household members, during the period 1984 to 1994. The study hypothe-sizes that the decision to out-migrate in the impoverished rural areas of northern Ethiopia is influenced by a combination of factors based on individual, household, and community characteristics. A multilevel analysis is applied to determine the role of these factors in the decision. The findings show that individuals belonging to economically poor households in ecologically vulnerable communities have a higher propensity to out-migrate for economic reasons, compared with those who belong to wealthier households in ecologically less vulnerable communities. The study pro-vides information relevant to policy formulation in the interrelated areas of environ-mental planning, workers’ mobility, poverty alleviation, and urban development.
http://www.popcouncil.org/publications/wp/prd/rdwplist.html

Syracuse: Luxembourg Income Study (LIS) Working Papers

Hölscher, Jens.  "Income Distribution and Convergence in the Transition Process."  Working paper No. 275.  April 2001.  29 pages.
Abstract:
The aim of this study is to clarify, whether and where the widespread opinion that systemic change from socialism to capitalism went along with dramatically rising inequality is true and how income distribution does affect the overall growth performance of transition countries. The countries under review are: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Russia. The findings are analysed against the background of convergence or divergence respectively vis-à-vis the European Union (EU) level of income and income distribution. Here Germany, being the neighbouring country and biggest EU economy, is taken as benchmark. For the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland it can be shown that income distribution remained relatively stable before and throughout the transition period on the basis of so far unpublished data from the Luxemburg Income Study database. Russia however displays a sharp increase in income distribution. These results are illustrated by Lorenz curves and underpinned by developments in functional income distribution and social transfers. An attempt is made to locate these transition countries on a stylised Kuznets curve and further qualitative factors referring to growth and equality are
considered.
http://lisweb.ceps.lu/publications/wpapersentire.htm

Osberg, Lars.  "Poverty Among Senior Citizens:  A Canadian Success Story in International Perspective."  Working Paper No. 274.  September 2001.  40 pages.
Abstract:
Canada was very late in establishing a comprehensive retirement security system - lagging roughly thirty five years after the US built its Social Security system and about eighty years after Bismark first established a state funded pension system in Germany. As a consequence, the reduction in income poverty among senior citizens is a fairly recent, and very strong, trend in income distribution data in Canada. Section 1 therefore begins by describing the long run trend in poverty among senior citizens (those aged 65 and over) in Canada, and presents the "Poverty Box" to compare the rate and depth of poverty over time, before and after taxes and transfers, among both seniors and the younger population. Section 2 discusses some of the problems of poverty measurement that are peculiar to the over 65 population. Section 3 uses Luxembourg Income Study data to compare the income changes of Canadian, American, Swedish and British households as they move into their retirement years, with particular emphasis on the income of poorer households. Section 4 concludes with some discussion of the challenges facing the design of retirement security.
http://lisweb.ceps.lu/publications/wpapersentire.htm

Mahler, Vincent A.  "Economic Globalization, Domestic Politics and Income Inequality in the Developed Countries:  A Cross-National Analysis."  Working Paper No. 273.  July 2001.  39 pages.
Abstract:
During the last decade, few issues have generated as much debate among scholars, policy-makers and political activists as the relationship between economic globalization and domestic income inequality in the developed world. The central aim of this paper is to offer an empirical assessment of the impact of economic globalization on the distribution of income generated by the market and the ability and willingness of states to redistribute it. Three basic analyses will be conducted. The first and most extensive is an unbalanced pooled cross-sectional time-series analysis of the international and domestic sources of cross-national variance in income distribution and redistribution for various years between the early 1980s and the early 1990s. This analysis will employ measures of post-government disposable income, pre-government earnings and fiscal redistribution that have been calculated from household-level income surveys available from the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS), which provides by far the most comprehensive, detailed and accurate cross-national data on income inequality currently available. The second analysis will offer a full-scale pooled cross-sectional time-series analysis of less complete and comparable annual data from non-LIS sources on pre-government wage dispersion between 1970 and 1990. Finally, the paper will examine trends over an even longer period in the distribution of post-government income in a single country, the United States, for which reliable annual figures are available for the period from 1967 to 1996. Among the questions addressed in the paper are the following: Is integration into the world economy systematically related to domestic income inequality across countries or over time? Can any economic dislocation resulting from globalization be ameliorated by the redistributive activities of the state? Are there differences in the impact of the three main modes of international integration, trade, direct foreign investment and global financial flows? To what extent are income distribution and redistribution the product of essentially domestic political variables not directly associated with economic globalization?
http://lisweb.ceps.lu/publications/wpapersentire.htm

Ritakallio, Veli-Matti.  "Trends of Poverty and Income Inequality in Cross-National Comparison."  Working Paper No. 272.  August 2001.  36 pages.
Abstract:
Comparative research of poverty, income inequality and the effectiveness of income transfer systems has flourished during the last two decades, largely owing to the contribution of the Luxembourg Income Study project. So far, however, the majority of comparative analyses have been based on a single year. For this paper we analysed cross-national patterns of poverty and income inequality with a special emphasis on their stability. We studied trends of poverty and income inequality between 1980 and 1995 in nine countries representing three different ideal types of social policy. The differences in poverty across the countries studied corresponded with the respective models of social policy more clearly in the mid-1990s than they did 15 years earlier. Generally speaking, the poverty rate is slightly under 5% in the Nordic countries, around 7.5% in Central Europe, 10% in Canada, 12.5% in the UK, and as high as 17.5% in the USA. All the countries included in the analysis share the trend that the primary distribution - based on the market income - has become less equal than before. In each country, the proportion of population being able to gain subsistence from the market alone has decreased continuously. This trend is significantly more remarkable than the change in actual poverty, which means that the absolute poverty alleviating impact of the income redistribution systems became stronger in these countries during the period 1980-1995. The analysis of income inequality produced a basically similar picture of the differences across the countries and the models of social policy as the analysis of poverty did. In comparison to poverty, however, the change is generally speaking less extensive. The Nordic countries, in particular, have been capable of responding to the rise of the market income differences so that the income inequality for disposable incomes has practically not increased at all. Canada shows a parallel trend. The USA and, in particular, the UK represent the opposite development. We also analysed trends of poverty in various population groups. It was found that by 1995 poverty had turned into a risk of young adults in all the countries studied. The poverty rate increased for the age group 18-30 years in all countries, while an opposite trend was observed among the elderly, in particular those aged over 65. Poverty rate among the elderly is nowadays below the average population-level rate in all the countries studied.
http://lisweb.ceps.lu/publications/wpapersentire.htm

Zuberi, Dan.  "Transfers Matter Most."  Working Paper No. 271.  May 2001. 42 pages.
Abstract: 
Three decades ago, Canada and the United States shared almost identical relative poverty and inequality levels. Yet despite experiencing similar macro-level social and economic transformations from 1974 to 1994 , the two nations have experienced diametrically opposite trends in relative household poverty. While levels of poverty increased in the U.S. during this period, Canada has experienced declining household poverty. Several institutional economists have utilized the comparative case of Canada to emphasize the important role of one kind of institution for explaining differences in poverty or inequality rates at one point in time i . These economists have presented compelling evidence that institutional differences, and not broader cultural or economic differences, explain the poverty and inequality differences between Canada and the U.S. in the late 1980s. These institutional differences include unionization policy and social welfare packages. Yet despite the importance of these institutional differences for explaining differences in poverty or inequality levels at one point in time, my analysis of Luxembourg Income Survey (LIS) data on Canada and the U.S. over this period clearly demonstrates that it is the different ways each nation has reformed their transfer systems over this period, and not other institutional differences or reforms, that comprehensively explain the divergent trends in relative household poverty rates from 1974 to 1994. My analysis utilizes harmonized LIS data to identify the relative explanatory strength of different facets of the transfer systems for explaining the divergence in poverty from 1974-1994. Surprisingly, the breakdown analysis reveals that the divergent trends can largely be explained by differences in the structure and reform of each nation's Social Retirement benefits, a factor not mentioned as an explanatory factor in the previous literature. Differences in other "Social Insurance" transfers and "Means-Tested" benefits together also helped explain the divergence in poverty trends, but with less power than expected. The increased effectiveness of the Canadian transfers for reducing its relative household poverty rate compared to the American system over this period has consequences for explaining divergence in inequality and possibly health outcomes and other measures of well-being between these two nations.
http://lisweb.ceps.lu/publications/wpapersentire.htm

Rein, Martin and Heinz Stapf-Finé.  "Income Packaging and economic well-being at the income last stage of the working career."  Working Paper No. 270.  April 2001.  37 pages.
Abstract:  
First considered, at a point in time, is how cross-country differences in the mix of income sources are related to three measures of economic well-being. Poverty, defined as 50 percent of mean-adjusted household income; relative adjusted disposable income of aged households with heads over 55 years of age relative to those under 55; and inequality as measured by the gini coefficient. Second, the broader question, namely that if the institutions providing social benefits are changing, over time, what is the likely redistributive impact of this development is addressed. The analysis focuses on income sources in the last stages of the working career. Starting at age 55, four different five-year age groups are identified to describe the last stage of the working career. LIS data is used to analyze the experience of ten countries: Australia 1994, Canada 1997, Finland 1995, Germany 1994, Netherlands 1994, Norway 1995, Sweden 1995, Switzerland 1992, United Kingdom 1995 and United States 1997. Data for Finland are available, but difficult to interpret, since the mandated earnings-related public social security is administered by a private life insurance company making the distinction between public and private especially difficult to draw. These are the only countries which had usable data on occupational pensions at the time of this first analysis. In this analysis we were able to include trends over time, broadly from 1980 to 1995, but actual available years varied by country.
http://lisweb.ceps.lu/publications/wpapersentire.htm

University of Washington. Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology 

Mason, William M. and William Lavely.  "An Evaluation of the One Percent Clustered Sample of the 1990 Census of China." No. 01-12.  October, 2001.  22 pages.
Abstract:  None available.
http://csde.washington.edu/pub/papers/01-12.pdf

University of Western Ontario. Population Studies Centre 

Gyimah, S. Obeng-Manu. "Missing Data in Quantitative Social Research."  Discussion Paper 01-14.  October, 2001.  30 pages.
Abstract:
Almost invariable, the data available to the social scientist display one or more characteristics of missing information.  Even though reasons for non response are varied, most frequently, they reflect the unwillingness of respondents to provide information on undesirable social behaviours and on issues considered as private.  Besides these, sloppy research designs often leads to ambiguous and poorly structured survey questions which provide a recipe for low response.  Longitudinal surveys also suffer from incompleteness due to attrition resulting from death and emigration, while in retrospective surveys, memory effect might be a major source of non-response.

While there is no consensus among methodologists on the single most effective technique of handling missing information, certain pertinent questions need to be addressed:  should we completely ignore the missing data and proceed with the analysis?  What are the implicit assumptions if one adopts such an approach and how unbiased will our estimates be?  This paper reviews a variety of methods of handling missing information.
http://www.ssc.uwo.ca/sociology/popstudies/dp2001.html

Gyimah, S. Obeng-Manu. "Residential Location and Intra City Mobility in an African City: Some Empirical Observations among Migrants in Metropolitan Accra, Ghana."  Discussion Paper 01-15.  October, 2001.  35 pages.
Abstract:
This paper examines the residential mobility behaviour of migrants in Accra using a retrospective survey.  Unlike studies elsewhere, the inner part of Accra does not serve as the major port of entry for migrants.  While the former periphery served as the zone of entry for the majority of the migrants in the past, the recent periphery has become the predominant entry point in recent years, and has also become the zone where most eventually move to.  Considering the problems of initial adjustment into the urban community, we expected migrants to initially located in neighborhoods where the predominant language and culture are their own kind.  The relationship was found to be statistically significant and that the null hypothesis of independence be rejected.  With the exception of the Akans, we observed a marked concentration of ethnic groups in certain sectors of the city.  For instance, almost two thirds of the Mole-Dagbanis initially settled in the former periphery, where the four predominantly Mole-Dagbani speaking neighborhoods of Mina, Kotobabi, New Town and Maamobi served as the initial residential location for 81 percent of them.
http://www.ssc.uwo.ca/sociology/popstudies/dp2001.html

Yale University.  Economic Growth Center

Schultz, T. Paul.  "The Fertility Transition: Economic Explanations." No. 833.   August 2001.  19 pages
Abstract:
Economic explanations for the fertility transition focus on the role of returns to schooling, especially for women, which have encouraged women to obtain more education and facilitated the rise in women’s wages relative to men’s. The private opportunity costs of children have therefore increased, and parents have been motivated to substitute child schooling for additional birthsDeclines in fertility have proceeded unevenly, first across the high income countries, and more recently across the low income countries. The cross sectional differentials in fertility are also frequently analyzed in household surveys, suggesting parallels with the cross-country comparisons. At an aggregate level, states have simultaneously legislated socialized support for the consumption of the elderly, which has eroded the incentives for childbearing, and subsidized child human capital through schools and public health programs, which has encouraged parents to demand fewer, higher quality, children.
http://www.library.yale.edu/socsci/egcdis2.html

 

Compiled by: Kari Swanson -  Library Assistant
Center for Demography and Ecology Information Services
Rm. 4471 Social Science Building
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706-1393 USA
Email: kswanson@ssc.wisc.edu