Lutz, W., S. Scherbov, and C. Van Aardt. "South Africa's Uncertain Demographic Present and Future."
IR-01-019. May 2001. 18 pages.
Abstract:
South Africa faces tremendous demographic challenges, mostly related to HIV/AIDS. Any projection is even made more difficult through significant disagreements over current population size, age structure, fertility and mortality levels. This paper expands methods of expert-based probabilistic population projections to include uncertainty distributions about the current demographic conditions. The result is a probabilistic distribution of future population trends in South Africa combining uncertainty about present starting conditions and future rates. For 2030 the total population of South Africa is projected at 54 million (median) with the 95% uncertainty interval ranging from 36 to 74 million.
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/cgi-bin/pubsrch?IR0101
Kohler, Hans-Peter and Iliana Kohler. "Fertility Decline in Russia after 1990: The Role of Economic Uncertainty and Labor Market Crises."
WP 2001-013.
May 2001. 25 pages.
Abstract:
This paper analyses the fertility decline in Russia during the 1990s from both a
macro and micro perspective and presents a striking divergence between these two
empirical viewpoints. While the former suggests that the fertility decline
after 1989 is associated with the economic hardship accompanying the transition
to a market economy, the micro-evidence using the Russian Longitudinal
Monitoring Survey is to the contrary. There is no negative association
between labor market uncertainty or a labor market crisis and fertility, and
frequently there is even a positive association. That is, women or couples
who are themselves affected by labor market crisis often had a higher
probability of having another child in the period 1994-96 than women/couples who
were less affected by such crises. The lack of negative association, and
the presence of a positive association in many instances, is surprising from the
standpoint of economic fertility theory. It is also contrary to many
explanatory theories about the recent fertility decline in Central and Eastern
European countries that are built on a more or less direct connection between
the labor market or an economic crisis and low fertility.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/PapersPres.htm#Work
Billari, Francesco C., Dimiter Philipov, and Pau Baizán. "Leaving home in Europe: the experience of cohorts born around 1960."
WP 2001-014.
May 2001.
41 pages.
Abstract:
In this paper we analyse the leaving home experience of men and women born
around 1960 in 16 European countries. We use extensive empirical evidence from
Fertility and Family Survey data, providing a large-scale comparison. We focus
on some key indicators of the process of leaving home: the timing, sequencing
and synchronisation of leaving home with the end of education and the formation
of a first union. As far as these dimensions of leaving home are concerned,
Europe appears to be extremely heterogeneous, and explaining this will
undoubtedly be a challenge. The complex interplay between the present economic
situation of young people and long-term institutional and cultural factors is
thought to be the main driving factor. Our findings constitute a benchmark
against which subsequent behaviour, such as that of cohorts coming of age after
the fall of the Iron Curtain, could be compared.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/PapersPres.htm#Work
Antolin, Pablo and Wim Suyker. "How should Norway respond to ageing?"
No. 296. May 2001. 38 pages.
Abstract:
Norway, like most OECD countries, will experience a significant ageing of its population, although it will be less dramatic. Moreover, it starts from an enviable position: employment rates of older people are among the highest in the
OECD, pension outlays are currently relatively low and substantial financial assets have been accumulated in the Government Petroleum Fund. However, without reforms, due to the maturing of the pension system, ageing will lead to one of the biggest increases in pension spending as a share of GDP in OECD countries over the next 50 years. This paper thus, after exploring the scale of the
demographic changes, examines the relevant institutions and their effect on the decision to retire. In light of the expected increase in the elderly, various issues concerning their economic position and health care are considered. The paper then presents the fiscal impact of ageing: the cost of the pension system will more than double, while health care spending for the elderly will likely rise substantially. The paper ends by outlining the policy options to deal with ageing. It also discusses whether the oil wealth should be used to fund the pension system.
http://www.olis.oecd.org/olis/2001doc.nsf/linkto/eco-wkp(2001)22
Antolin, Pablo, Howard Oxley, and Wim Suyker. "How will ageing affect Finland?"
No. 295. May 2001. 43 pages.
Abstract:
In Finland, as in most OECD countries, the ageing of the population is one of the major long-term policy challenges. This paper first explores the scale of
the demographic changes in Finland, the relevant institutions and their effect on the decision to retire. In light of the increase in the number of elderly expected over the coming years, various issues concerning their economic position and health care are considered. The paper then considers the impact that demographic changes will have on public finances: the cost of the pension system will increase by a third; health care spending and the cost of care for the frail elderly are also likely to rise substantially. The paper ends by outlining the policy options to copy with ageing.
http://www.olis.oecd.org/olis/2001doc.nsf/linkto/eco-wkp(2001)21
Linton, April. "Spanish for Americans? A Tipping Model of Bilingualism among Hispanics in the
US." 01-8. April 2001. 32 pages.
Abstract:
This paper compares two contrasting ideals of what it means to become or to be
American within the context of the language choices made by Hispanics in the
United States. Its overarching question is: What contextual and individual-level
factors influence the decision to maintain or learn Spanish, or see to it that
one’s children do so? I develop a "tipping" model of the
configuration of area-specific circumstances that influence the
"payoff" for bilingualism: the degree to which Spanish-English
bilingualism (as opposed to English monolingualism) is viable or desirable in a
particular metro area. The model’s tipping point is the bilingual: English
monolingual ratio at which the utility functions for bilingualism and English
monolingualism intersect. I find that area-specific payoffs influence the
probability of bilingualism among Hispanic adults and that – independent of
payoffs –residence in a place that is past the tipping point exerts a strong,
positive effect on this probability. These results provide empirical support for
the tipping model and its usefulness in studying macro- and micro-level language
outcomes.
http://csde.washington.edu/csde/wps/wps.html
McQuestion, Michael. "Exploring Social Interaction and Differentiation Effects in Latin America's Mortality Transition."
2000-15. Published May 2001. 37 pages.
No abstract available.
http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/cde/cdewp/home.htm
Swallen, Karen. "Does Population Composition Explain the US Advantage in Old-Age Mortality?"
2001-01. 2001. 27 pages.
Abstract:
Previous research indicated that once Americans achieve age 80, they have longer life expectancy than European populations. A number of potential explanations for
this finding have been proposed. This paper investigates whether the inclusion of immigrants in the American population deflates mortality rates enough to explain the
crossover. First, mortality rates are calculated controlling for nativity; second, mortality of second-generation Americans is taken into account. Excluding these
populations from the white, non-Hispanic American population is not sufficient to remove the crossover, although it does push the crossover two years older.
Analyses indicate that Hispanic ethnicity (often included within the “white” population in American demographic data) may exert a more powerful compositional effect
than nativity.
http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/cde/cdewp/home.htm
Thomson, Elizabeth. "Motherhood, Fatherhood and Family Values."
#88. 2001. 26 pages.
Abstract:
This chapter examines effects of partners' family values on the birth of their first or second child and the effects of parenthood transitions on changes in parents' family
values. I use panel data from the U.S. National Survey of Families and Households, which includes parallel indicators of family values in both waves (1987-88 and
1992-94). Four dimensions of family values are examined: gender-role traditionalism, sexual conservatism, conjugal familism, and extended familism. The results
provided only moderate support for the processes of values selection and values adaptation associated with first- or second-time
parenthood. Although family values influenced the risk of having a first child, only women's conjugal familism and men's extended increased the risk, as hypothesized. Women's extended familism
reduced their risk of becoming mothers between interviews. Effects of these values were quite substantial, increasing or decreasing the risk of having a child by as
much as 40 percent. Neither men's nor women's values influenced the risk of having a second child. Values adaptation was reflected in the positive effects of
first-time motherhood on women's conjugal familism and on both partners' extended familism. First-time fatherhood appeared to challenge men's gender-role
traditionalism, however. Estimated effects of these major life transitions on family values were quite small, shifting parents less than 5 percent of the distance between
the least and most traditional family values.
http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/cde/nsfhwp/home.htm
Bauman, Kurt J. "The Effect of Work and Welfare on Living Conditions in Single Parent
Households." #46. Issued August 2000. 50 pages.
Abstract:
Recent changes to programs of income support for the poor have focused attention
on how work requirements and incentives affect earnings and employment of
welfare recipients. The predominant way of thinking of these issues, at least in
broader political discourse, assumes that obtaining work or improving wages are
desirable goals for welfare recipients and their families. However, recent
research has begun to indicate that single parents and their families are not
always better off in the labor force. This paper uses the 1991 and 1992 panels
of the Survey of Income and Program Participation to examine welfare, work and
well-being in a broader context. The paper finds an apparent advantage of work
over welfare for most households, but not for single parent households. In
addition, material hardship is found to have strong effects on subsequent labor
market participation and welfare use.
http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/population/www/techpap.html
Habibi, Nadir, Cindy Huang, Diego Miranda, Victoria Murillo, Gustav Ranis,
Mainak Sarkar, and Frances Stewart. "Decentralization in
Argentina." #825. May 2001. 58 pages.
Abstract:
Human development, reflected in the status of people’s levels of health and
education, affects future growth and, in turn, is affected by decentralization.
Unlike earlier exclusive emphasis on budgetary issues, this study focuses on the
impact of fiscal decentralization on the level of human development. It traces
the origin and recent development of revenue-sharing arrangements across
Argentina’s provinces over time (1970-94). The study regresses two indicators
of health and educational status on two decentralization measures. It highlights
the link between decentralization and human development outcomes and suggests
that devolutionary decentralization has a positive influence on the
effectiveness of public policy directed towards an improvement in the level of
human development. Decentralization is shown to reduce intra-regional
disparities and increase levels of human development. While the paper also
recognizes problems associated with decentralization, including addressing
inter-regional disparities, the positive impact of decentralization schemes on
human development is seen to be of relevance in evaluating the Argentine
co-participation regime which is currently under negotiation.
http://www.library.yale.edu/socsci/egcdis2.html
Guinnane, Timothy W. and Cormac Ó Gráda.
"Mortality in the North Dublin Union During the Great
Famine." #829. May 2001. 25 pages.
Abstract:
Responsibility for the tremendous excess mortality associated with the Great
Irish Famine of 1846-51 is a continuing topic of debate. One view blames an
inadequate government response for much of the tragedy. These debates are
hampered by a lack of detailed information on how well relief efforts performed
at a local level. Excess mortality ranged from one quarter of the entire
population in parts of the west to negligible levels along much of the eastern
coastline. Much of this cross-section variation reflects relative wealth. But
another theme in the historiography stresses the importance of sympathetic or
negligent local figures such as a landlord or priest. This study addresses the
question of local agency with a case study of the North Dublin Union, the
administrative unit responsible for administering the Irish poor law in the
northern half of Dublin city and some adjacent parishes. North Dublin Union is
unusual for the quality of its surviving administrative records. We use those
records to study the Union’s day-to-day functioning during the famine and to
estimate mortality rates in the workhouse during the crisis. We find that the
tremendous mortality of the North Dublin workhouse inmates during the famine
primarily reflects the crisis outside the workhouse’s walls; the guardians and
managers did reasonably well in preserving human life under these trying
circumstances.
http://www.library.yale.edu/socsci/egcdis2.html
Compiled by: Pamela Jackson - Library Assistant
Center for Demography and Ecology Information Services
Rm. 4471 Social Science Building
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706-1393 USA
Email: pjackson@ssc.wisc.edu