Kohler, Hans-Peter, Axel Skytthe, and Kaare Christensen.
"The Age at First Birth and Completed Fertility Reconsidered: Findings from a Sample of Identical Twins."
MPIDR WP 2001-006. March 2001. 47 pages
Abstract:
In this paper we use new methods and data to reassess the relationship between
the age at first birth and completed fertility. In particular we attempt
to properly estimate the postponement effect, i.e., the reduction in
fertility associated with a delay in childbearing, using a sample of Danish
monozygotic twins born 1945-60 to control for unobserved heterogeneity.
Within MZ-twin pair estimates of the postponement effect indicate that a one
year delay in the first birth reduces completed fertility by about 3% for both
males and females. The effect is significantly stronger for older cohorts,
and it is stronger for females with a late desired entry into parenthood.
Analyses that fail to control for unobservables underestimate this postponement
effect between 10-25%, and they underestimate the annual decline of this effect
by up to 50%. Moreover, our estimates indicate important changes across
cohorts in the relevance of child-preferences and ability characteristics for
the age at first birth and the pace and level of subsequent fertility.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/PapersPres.htm#Work
Carter, Lawrence R. and Alexia Prskawetz. "Examining Structural Shifts in Mortality Using the Lee-Carter Method."
MPIDR WP 2001-007. March 2001. 17 pages.
Abstract:
We present an extension of the Lee-Carter method of modeling mortality to
examine structural shifts in trajectories of mortality. Austrian data
consisting of 53 years of single-age mortality rates are subdivided into 30
24-year submatrices. Using singular value decomposition, the submatrices
are decomposed into three component submatrices: 1)the multiple realizations of
the index of mortality to which each respective age-specific death rate is
linearly related; 2)the average shape across age of the log of mortality
schedules; 3)the sensitivity of the log of mortality at each age to variations
in the elements of index mortality. We refer to these latter submatrices
to locate structural changes in mortality patterns. A comparison of the
observed and estimated life expectancy indicates that the extended Lee-Carter
method is superior to the original Lee-Carter method, particularly so for life
expectancies at higher ages. We conclude by projecting life expectancy up
to 2050, applying the Lee-Carter method to the whole time series (1947-1999).
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/PapersPres.htm#Work
Bhaumik, Sumon Kumar. "Intergenerational transfers: The ignored role of time."
MPIDR WP 2001-008. March 2001. 27 pages.
Abstract:
The literature on inter vivos and intergenerational transfers has largely focused
on the possible determinants of such transfers. Specifically,
much of the empirical work has examined whether transfers are driven by
altruistic relationship between "dynastic" households. However,
the empirical literature has consistently overlooked the possibility that
transfers may be driven by specific events in the recipients' lives like
marriage, childbirth and illness. Further, it has not addressed the
possibility that within a reasonably long time frame--say, one year--transfers
may influence household income as much as household income influences the
probability and magnitude of transfers. This paper addresses these lacunae
in the existing literature. Using GSOEP data from the 1996 and 1997
surveys, it shows that demographic and other events determine transfers to a
significant extent, and also that overlooking the possible endogeneity of income
may lead to the bias in the econometric estimations.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/PapersPres.htm#Work
Beaudry, Paul and David A. Green. "Population Growth, Technological Adoption and Economic Outcomes: A Theory of Cross-Country Differences for the Information Era."
NBER #8149. March 2001. 72 pages.
Abstract:
The object of this paper is to show how population growth, through its interaction with recent technological and organizational developments, can account for many of the cross-country differences in economic outcome observed among industrialized countries over the last 20 years. In particular, our model illustrates how a large decrease in the price of information technology can create a comparative advantage for high population growth economies to jump ahead in the adoption of computer- and skill-intensive models of production as a means to exploiting their relative abundance of human capital versus physical capital. The predictions of the model are that, over the span of the information revolution, industrial countries with higher population growth rates will experience a more pronounced adoption of new technology, a better performance in terms of increased employment rates, a poorer performance in terms of wage growth for less skilled workers, a larger increase in the service sector and a larger increase in the returns to education. We provide preliminary evidence in
support of the theory based on a comparative study of observed developments in the US, UK and Germany since the mid-seventies, complemented by an examination of broad wage and employment changes for 18 OECD countries over the same period.
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W8149
Grogger, Jeffrey. "The Effects of Time Limits and Other Policy Changes on Welfare Use, Work, and Income Among Female- Headed Families."
NBER #8153. March 2001. 49 pages.
Abstract:
Of all of the welfare reforms that were implemented during the 1990's, time limits may represent the single greatest break from past policy. This paper expands on what is known about this important welfare reform measure by exploiting the predictions from Grogger and Michalopoulos (1999) to estimate the effects of time limits on welfare use, employment, labor supply, earnings, and income among female-headed families. Results based on data from the March Current Population Survey suggest that time limits have had important effects on welfare use and work, accounting for about one-eighth of the decline in welfare use and about 7 percent of the rise in employment since 1993. They have had no significant effect on earnings or income, however. The analysis also shows that the
collective effects of other reforms have had important impacts on employment and labor supply. Furthermore, it identifies the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) as a particularly important contributor to both the recent decrease in welfare use and the recent increase in employment, labor supply, and earnings.
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W8153
Rae, David and David Turner. "A small global forecasting model."
No. 286. February 2001. 35 pages.
Abstract:
This paper describes the OECD's new small global forecasting model for the three main OECD economic regions: the United States, the euro area, and Japan.
The key variables - which include output, inflation, the trade balance, and import prices - are driven by monetary and fiscal policy, exchange rates, and world demand. The projections from the model are used as a starting point to help animate the early stages of the OECD's forecasting round. The model is essentially a demand-side model with a particular focus on the impact of global linkages and the transmission of influences between regions.
http://www.olis.oecd.org/olis/2001doc.nsf/linkto/eco-wkp(2001)12
Kao, Chihwa. "Bounded Influence Estimation for Auto-regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models with Estimates of the Variances of Foreign Exchange
Rates." No. 34. February 2001. 25 pages.
Abstract:
This paper proposes a robust estimation procedure, the bounded influence estimate (BIE), that is robust against departure from the conditional normality of the
autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) models to describe the behavior of exchange rates. First, the BIE identifies the additive outliers (AO,
e.g., Fox 1972) caused by abnormal information arrivals which may be triggered by changes in domestic policies and international shocks. Identification of outliers allows
us to analyze the major economic and political factors that contribute directly to the dramatic changes in exchange rates. Second, the
performance of the BIE is compared with the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) and a semiparametric estimator (SP) of Engle and Gonzalez-Rivera (1991).
http://www-cpr.maxwell.syr.edu/cprwps/wps34abs.htm
Holman, Darryl J., James W. Wood, and Kathleen A. O'Conner. "Estimating Age-at-Death Distributions from Skeletal Samples: A Multivariate Latent Trait
Approach." 01-3. March 2001. 38 pages.
Abstract not available. Full-text .pdf is available.
http://csde.washington.edu/csde/wps/wps.html
Wierzbicki, Susan and Charles Hirschman. "The End of Affirmative Action in Washington State and Its Impact on the Transition from High School to
College." 01-5. March 2001. 44 pages.
Abstract:
Changes in affirmative action policies in some
states create possibilities for "natural experiments" to observe the
impact of affirmative action and the sources of racial and ethnic inequality in
American society. In this study, we measure the impact of Initiative 200, a 1998
measure that eliminated affirmative action in Washington State, on the
transition from high school to college. After I-200 was passed, we find a
significant, though small in absolute size, decrease in the proportion of high
school seniors from underrepresented minorities (black, Hispanic, and American
Indian) going to college. This impact of I-200 was almost entirely registered at
the University of Washington, the flagship public institution in the state. This
decrease, however, stemmed less from changes in minority admission rates than
from declines in application rates. We speculate that an important impact of
affirmative action programs in higher education is as a signal of a welcome
environment for minority students.
http://csde.washington.edu/csde/wps/wps.html
Lavely, William, Jianke Li, and Jianghong Li. "Sex Preference for Children in a Meifu Li Community in
Hainan, China." 01-6. March 2001. 51 pages.
Abstract not available. Full-text .pdf is available.
http://csde.washington.edu/csde/wps/wps.html
Lavely, William. "Coding Scheme for the Language Atlas of
China." 01-7. March 2001. 11 pages.
Abstract not available. Full-text .pdf is available.
http://csde.washington.edu/csde/wps/wps.html
Compiled by: Pamela Jackson - Library Assistant
Center for Demography and Ecology Information Services
Rm. 4471 Social Science Building
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706-1393 USA
Email: pjackson@ssc.wisc.edu