Denton, Frank T., Christine H. Feaver, and Byron G. Spencer.
"Alternative Pasts, Possible Futures: A "What If" Study of Fertility on the
Canadian Population and Labour Force." R.R. No. 367. January
2002. 37 pages.
Abstract: The "baby boom" that followed World War
II, and the subsequent "baby bust", have cast a long shadow over the Canadian
population, society, and economy. Drawing on a series of counterfactual
projections, this paper considers what the year 2001 would have looked like if
things had been different if there had been no baby boom or no bust, or if the
bust had been delayed, to take three examples. The paper then considers what
will happen in the coming decades under a number of alternative assumptions. A
major finding is that the boom had much less impact on the 2001 age structure of
the population and labour force than did the bust that followed. For the future,
population aging, slower rates of growth, and increased dependency ratios are
likely features, but one should be careful not to overestimate the prospective
"dependency burden".
http://socserv2.socsci.mcmaster.ca/~qsep/title02.htm
Milligan, Kevin. "Subsidizing the Stork: New Evidence on Tax
Incentives and Fertility." #8845. March 2002. 66
pages.
Abstract: Variation in tax policy presents an opportunity to
estimate the responsiveness of fertility to prices. This paper exploits the
introduction of a pro-natalist transfer policy in the Canadian province of
Quebec that paid up to C$8,000 to families having a child. I implement a
quasi-experimental strategy by forming treatment and control groups defined by
time, jurisdiction, and family type. This permits a triple-difference estimator
to be implemented -- both on the program's introduction and cancellation.
Furthermore, the incentive was available broadly, rather than to a narrow subset
of the population as studied in the literature on AFDC and fertility. This
provides a unique opportunity to investigate heterogeneous responses. I find a
strong effect of the policy on fertility, and some evidence of a heterogeneous
response that may help reconcile these results with the AFDC literature.
http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Costa, Dora L. "The Measure of Man and Older Age
Mortality: Evidence from the Gould Sample." #8843. March 2002.
36 pages.
Abstract: This paper documents differences in body size
between white, black, and Indian mid-nineteenth century American men and
investigates the socioeconomic and demographic determinants of frame size using
a unique data set of Civil War soldiers. It finds that over time men have grown
taller and heavier and have relatively less abdominal fat. Abdominal fat in
young adulthood was an excellent predictor of older age mortality from ischemic
heart disease or stroke. Changes in frame size explain roughly three-fifths of
the mortality decline among white men between 1915 and 1988 and predict even
sharper declines in older age mortality between 1988 and 2022.
http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Collins, William J.and Melissa A. Thomasson. "Exploring the
Racial Gap in Infant Mortaility Rates, 1920-1970." #8836.
March 2002. 57 pages.
Abstract: This paper examines
the racial gap in infant mortality rates from 1920 to 1970. Using state-level
panel data with information on income, urbanization, women's education, and
physicians per capita, we can account for a large portion of the racial gap in
infant mortality rates between 1920 and 1945, but a smaller portion thereafter.
We re-examine the post-war period in light of trends in birth weight, smoking,
air pollution, breast-feeding, insurance, and hospital births.
http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Nordhaus, William D. "The Health of Nations: The Contribution of
Improved Health to Living Standards." #8818. February 2002. 61
pages.
Abstract: Nations generally measure their economic performance
using the yardstick of national output and income. It is not widely recognized,
however, that conventional measures of national income and output exclude the
value of improvements in the health status of the population. The present study
develops a methodology and presents preliminary estimates of how standard
economic measures would change if they adequately reflected improvements in
health status. The study first discusses the theory of the measurement of
national income, examines some of the shortcomings of traditional concepts, and
proposes a new concept called 'health income' that can be used to incorporate
improvements in health status. The study next discusses how the proposed measure
fits into existing theories for measuring and valuing consumption and health
status. The study applies the new concepts to data for the United States over
the twentieth century and concludes that accounting for improvements in the
health status would substantially increase the estimated improvement in economic
welfare for the U.S. over the twentieth century.
http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Bloom, David E., David Canning and Bryan Graham.
"Longevity and Life Cycle Savings." #8808. February 2002. 52
pages.
Abstract: We add health and longevity to a standard model of
life cycle saving and show that, under plausible assumptions, increases in
longevity lead to higher savings rates at every age, even when retirement is
endogenous. In a stable population these higher savings rates are offset by
increased old age dependency, but during the disequilibrium phase, when
longevity is rising, the effect on aggregate savings rates can be substantial.
Our results explain the boom in savings in East Asia during 1950-90 as a
combination of rising life expectancy and falling youth dependency, though they
predict that savings in the region will return to more normal levels as
populations age. We also find that falling life expectancies in Africa are
associated with declining savings rates.
http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Kerr, Don, M-J. Norris and E. Guimond. "Difficulties Encountered
in Projecting Canada's Aboriginal Population." No. 02-01. March
2002. 22 pages.
Abstract: None available.
http://www.ssc.uwo.ca/sociology/popstudies/dp2002.html
Compiled by: Kari Swanson - Library Assistant
Center for Demography
and Ecology Information Services
Rm. 4471 Social Science Building
1180
Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706-1393 USA
Email: kswanson@ssc.wisc.edu