Hank, Karsten. " Regional Social Contexts and Individual Fertility Decisions: A Multilevel Analysis of First and Second Births in Western Germany."
WP 2001-015. June 2001. 31 pages.
Abstract:
In this paper, a multilevel approach is used to
investigate whether and how regional social contexts influence first and second
birth probabilities of women living in western Germany during the 1980s and
1990s. In the theoretical part it is argued that regional opportunity structures
as well as local patterns of social interaction and culture may translate into
parameters that directly affect individual behaviour. Individual level data from
the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) are then linked with a set of regional
indicators to estimate multilevel discrete-time logit models for the transition
to the first and second child. The empirical analysis provides no evidence that
the distinct fertility differences observed at the regional level are due to
autonomous contextual effects. It is rather suggested that most of the observed
regional variation may be due to differences in the spatial distribution of
individual characteristics.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/PapersPres.htm#Work
Hoem, Jan M., Alexia Prskawetz, and Gerda Neyer.
"Autonomy or conservative adjustment? The effect of public policies and educational attainment on third births in Austria."
2001-016. June 2001. 56 pages.
Abstract:
The standardised rate of third births
declined by over 50 percent in Austria between the late 1970s and the mid-1990s.
The third birth was also postponed gradually over the years up through 1991-92,
after which the tempo of childbearing suddenly increased in response to a change
in the parental-leave policy. This new policy inadvertently favoured women who
had their second or subsequent child shortly after their previous one. We cannot
find any indication that the general decline in third births can be seen as a
consequence of women’s increasing independence from their husbands at the
stage in life we study. Furthermore, it still seems to be more difficult to
combine motherhood and labour-force participation in Austria than in Sweden,
which is a leader in reducing this incompatibility. These developments reflect
the tension between advancing gender equality and the dominance of traditional
norms in Austria.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/PapersPres.htm#Work
Kemp, Candace L. and Carolyn J. Rosenthal. "The Consequences fo Caregiving: Does Employment Make a Difference?"
R.R. no. 357. June 2001. 39 pages.
Abstract:
While a number of studies have examined the consequences of caregiving among employed women, surprisingly little research has explicitly compared how
consequences differ between employed and not employed women. Moreover, very little research in this area has distinguished between part-time and full-time
employment. This paper examines these issues drawing on the 1996 General Social Survey of Canada. The sample for this study consists of women aged 25 to 64 who reported providing care to one or more people aged 65+ because of a long-term physical disability (n=426). Three employment status groups
(full-time, part-time and not employed) are compared on positive consequences, burden, guilt, job adjustment, postponed opportunities, and social and economic consequences. Results reveal significant differences between the three employment categories indicating that employment, both full and part-time, is associated with higher burden, guilt and social and economic consequences.
http://socserv2.socsci.mcmaster.ca/~qsep/title01.htm
Denton, Frank T., Amiram Gafni, and Byron G. Spencer. "Exploring the Effects of Population Change on the Costs of Physician Services."
R.R. No. 358. June 2001. 36 pages.
Abstract:
The effects of population aging on future health care costs are an important public policy concern in many countries. We focus in this paper on physician
services and investigate how changes in the size and age distribution of a population can affect the aggregate and per capita costs of such services. The
principal data set (unpublished, for Ontario) provides information about payments to physicians, by age and sex of patients. Using it, we derive age/cost
profiles for 19 categories of physicians. Adopting an index-theoretic framework, we then use the profiles to analyse the "pure" effects of population change
(historical or projected) on physician costs, and to decompose the effects into population growth effects and population aging effects. We present calculations
for Ontario, for the populations of 15 industrialized countries, and for four theoretical populations.
http://socserv2.socsci.mcmaster.ca/~qsep/title01.htm
Denton, Frank T., Christine H. Feaver, and Byron G. Spencer.
"Time Series Properties and Stochastic Forecasts: Some Econometrics of Mortality from the Canadian Laboratory."
R.R. No. 360. June 2001. 56 pages.
Abstract:
Methods for time series modeling of mortality and stochastic forecasting of life expectancies are explored, using Canadian data. Consideration is given first to
alternative indexes of aggregate mortality. Age-sex group system models are then estimated. Issues in the forecasting of life expectancies are discussed and
their quantitative implications investigated. Experimental stochastic forecasts are presented and discussed, based on nonparametric, partially parametric, and
fully parametric methods, representing alternatives to the well known Lee- Carter method. Some thoughts are offered on the interpretation of historical data in
generating future probability distributions, and on the treatment of demographic uncertainty in long-run policy planning.
http://socserv2.socsci.mcmaster.ca/~qsep/title01.htm
Joyce, Ted. "Did Legalized Abortion Lower Crime?"
#8319. June 2001. 75 pages.
Abstract:
This paper examines the relationship between the legalization of abortion and subsequent decreases in crime. In a current study, researchers estimate that the legalization of abortion explains over half of the recent decline in national crime rates. The association is identified by correlating changes in crime with changes in the abortion ratio weighted by the proportion of the criminal population exposed to legalized abortion. In this paper, I use an alternative identification strategy. I analyze changes in homicide and arrest rates among teens and young adults born before and after 1970 in states that legalized abortion prior to Roe v. Wade. I compare these changes with variation in homicide and arrest rates among cohorts from the same period but who were unexposed to legalized abortion. I find little evidence to support the claim that legalized abortion caused the reduction in crime. I conclude that the association between abortion and crime is not
causal, but most likely the result of confounding from unmeasured period effects such as changes in crack cocaine use and its spillover effects.
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W8319
Deaton, Angus. "Health, Inequality and Economic Development."
#8318. June 2001. 77 pages.
Abstract:
I explore the connection between income inequality and health in both poor and rich countries. I discuss a range of mechanisms, including nonlinear income effects, credit restrictions, nutritional traps, public goods provision, and relative deprivation. I review the evidence on the effects of income inequality on the rate of decline of mortality over time, on geographical
patterns of mortality, and on individual-level mortality. Much of the literature needs to be treated skeptically, if only because of the low quality of much of the data on income inequality. Although there are many puzzles that remain, I conclude that there is no direct link from income inequality to ill-health; individuals are no more likely to die if they live in more unequal places. The raw correlations that are sometimes found are likely the result of factors other than income inequality, some of which are intimately linked to broader notions of inequality and unfairness. That income inequality itself is not a health risk does not deny the importance for health of other inequalities, nor of the social environment. Whether income redistribution can improve population health does not depend on a direct effect of income inequality and remains an open question.
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W8318
Sathar, Zeba, Cynthia B. Lloyd, Cem Mete, and Minhaj ul Haque. "Schooling opportunities for
girls as a stimulus for fertility change in rural Pakistan."
#143. 2000. 44 pages.
Abstract:
This paper tests Caldwell’s mass
schooling hypothesis in the context of rural Pakistan. His hypothesis was that
the onset of the fertility transition is closely linked to the achievement of
"mass formal schooling" of boys and girls. Punjab and North-west
Frontier Province (NWFP) were selected for this study because they appear to be
on the leading edge of the demographic transition—a transition that has only
recently begun—as suggested by rapid recent increases in contraceptive
practice. The study covered a range of rural villages or communities with
very different socioeconomic and schooling conditions in order to examine the
effects of both school access and quality on family-building behavior in
Pakistan. The study concludes that gender equity in the schooling environment,
as measured by the number of public primary schools for girls in the community
or by the ratio of the number of girls’ schools to boys’ schools, has a
statistically significant effect on the probability that a woman will express a
desire to stop childbearing and, by extension, on the probability that she will
operationalize those desires by practicing contraception. Indeed, the
achievement of gender equity in primary school access in rural Punjab and NWFP
could lead to a 14–15 percentage point rise in contraceptive use in villages
where no girls’ public primary school currently exists and an 8 percentage
point rise in villages with one primary school for girls. This is entirely
supportive of the Caldwell argument that mass schooling is an important
determinant of fertility change, particularly when girls are included. It would
appear that fertility change will be much more difficult and will come much more
slowly when girls are left behind.
http://www.popcouncil.org/publications/wp/prd/143.html
Bongaarts, John. "Household size and composition in the developing world."
#144. 2001. 38 pages.
Abstract:
This study uses data from recent household surveys in 43 developing countries to describe the main dimensions of household size and composition in the developing world. Average household size varies only modestly among regions, ranging from 5.6 in the Near East/North Africa to 4.8 in Latin America. These
averages are similar to levels observed in the second half of the nineteenth century in Europe and North America. About four out of five members of the household are part of the nuclear family of the head of the household.
Household size is found to be positively associated with the level of fertility and the mean age at marriage, and inversely associated with the level of marital disruption. An analysis of trends and differentials in household size suggests that convergence to smaller and predominantly nuclear households is proceeding slowly in contemporary developing countries.
http://www.popcouncil.org/publications/wp/prd/144.html
Casterline, John B., Zeba A. Sathar, and Minhaj ul Haque. "Obstacles to contraceptive use in Pakistan: A study in Punjab."
#145. 2001. 43 pages.
Abstract:
The principal aim of this study is to assess the strength in Pakistan of a set of hypothesized obstacles to practicing contraception. Our concern is those factors
that prevent women from translating a desire to avoid becoming pregnant into contraceptive practice, a common predicament in Pakistan in recent decades.
We analyze survey data collected in Punjab province in 1996 that contain unusually detailed measurement of various perceived costs of practicing contraception, as well as focused measurement of fertility motivation. The framework guiding the research specifies six major obstacles to contraceptive
use: the strength of motivation to avoid pregnancy, awareness and knowledge of contraception, the social and cultural acceptability of contraception,
perceptions of the husband's preferences and attitudes, health concerns, and perceived access to services. For each of these, the survey data provide a block of measured indicators. Net effects of each obstacle are estimated through structural equation modeling of the intention to practice contraception in the near
future (the two years subsequent to the survey) in which the six obstacles
are treated as latent variables. The estimates indicate that the two principal obstacles to using a contraceptive are the woman's perception that such behavior would conflict with her husband's views (that is, his fertility preferences and his attitudes toward family planning) and her perception of the social or cultural unacceptability of contraception. Of lesser importance but also significant is the woman's awareness and knowledge of contraception. The other three obstacles do not show statistically significant effects. The results confirm the value of
taking contraceptive costs seriously, and, in particular, of attempting to measure these costs in empirical research on family planning. Punjabi women confront many obstacles to adopting and continuing to practice contraception, and policies and programs that overcome these obstacles should be developed.
http://www.popcouncil.org/publications/wp/prd/145.html
Zimmer, Zachary, Albert I. Hermalin, and Hui-Sheng Lin. "Whose education counts? The impact of grown children's education on the physical functioning of their parents in Taiwan."
#146. 2001. 33 pages.
Abstract:
Research has identified education as an important predictor of physical functioning in old age. Older adults in Taiwan tend to experience close ties to family members and high rates of adult child coresidence, much more so than is typical in Western cultures. These circumstances might imply additional health-related benefits stemming from the education of grown children. This association could arise in a number of ways, for instance through the sharing of health-related information between child and parent, the quality of caregiving efforts, monetary assistance for medical and other services, or through other psychosocial avenues. In this study, a nationally representative survey of older Taiwanese is employed to examine these concurrent effects. Outcome variables include the existence of any functional limitations (dichotomously measured) and the severity of functional disorders (ordinally measured). Dichotomous and ordinal logistic models are employed. Results suggest that, after adjusting for age, sex, and other factors, both child's and parent's education have an impact on the existence of physical limitations; however, the child's education is more important than the parent's in predicting severity of limitations. This finding implies that models ignoring social network characteristics in the effort to determine health outcomes of older adults may be misspecified, at least in some non-Western societies.
http://www.popcouncil.org/publications/wp/prd/146.html
Logan, John R., Richard D. Alba, and Wenquan Zhang. "Immigrant Enclaves and Ethnic Communities in New York and Los Angeles."
2001-03. June 2001. 49 pages.
Abstract:
The major post-1965 immigrant groups have
established distinctive settlement areas in many American cities and suburbs.
This study examines the residential patterns of several of the largest groups in
New York and Los Angeles. It addresses three kinds of questions: To what degree
do they settle together with other members of the same group? What are their
ethnic neighborhoods like? And what are the distinguishing characteristics of
those group members who live in neighborhoods of ethnic concentration compared
to those who reside outside these areas? The results show that the model of
immigrant enclaves, where initial settlement areas serve as a potential base for
eventual spatial assimilation with the white majority, applies well to some
groups. For others, an alternative model of ethnic community is advanced,
reflecting the group’s choice of segregated settlement even when spatial
assimilation is otherwise feasible.
http://www.albany.edu/csda/workpap.html
Kominski, Robert, Amie Jamieson, and Gladys Martinez. "At-Risk Conditions of U.S. School Age
Children." #52. June 2001.
Abstract:
In the past few years, research on the well-being of the population has expanded to include the concept of 'at-risk' conditions. Generally, these conditions are thought
to be characteristics of the individual, or situations of the context they are a part of, that are believed to create higher likelihoods of undesirable life outcomes (e.g.,
completing high school, avoiding premarital births), or to impact overall quality of life.
This paper estimates the frequency of three 'personal' and four 'familial' at-risk conditions for the school age population in the United States. The 'personal' conditions
are: presence of a disability, ever retained in school, and speaking English less than 'very well'. The 'familial' conditions are: either or both parents absent from the
household, at least one foreign-born parent of recent immigration, low family income, and no employed parent. For each of these conditions we estimate levels
of occurrence for the total school-age population as well as for age, race, and sex groups. Additional analysis focuses on regional and metropolitan variation. Data for
the analysis are taken from the October 1999 Current Population Survey. The analysis shows that, while a majority (54%) of school-age children has no significant risk factors, a significant minority does. A far larger proportion of children
has experienced a familial risk factor (36%) than a personal one (18%). The single most common personal risk factor is being retained in school, while the most
common familial factor is not living with both parents. Additionally, a sizable proportion of children (18%) has more than one risk factor in their life. Substantial variation in the number and kind of risk factors occurs
across various demographic groups, with multiple risk factors more frequent for males and blacks. There is little variation across age groups, implying that younger
persons have already encountered similar levels of risk factors as the cohort nearly a decade older.
A final analysis on the cross-classification of the various risk factors shows the factors of highest concurrence for individuals.
http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/population/www/documentation/twps0052.html#abs
Item available in full-text HTML format (not in PDF).
Srinivasan, T.N. "India's Reform of External Sector Policies and Future Multilateral Trade
Negotiations." # 830. June 2001. 72 pages.
Abstract:
I evaluate India's transition from an
inward-oriented development strategy to greater participation in the world
economy. While tariff rates have decreased significantly over the past decade,
India is still one of the more autarkic countries. Despite improvement over the
past in export performance, India continues to lag behind its South- and East
Asian neighbors. Second, official debt flows have been largely replaced by
foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio investment in the 1990s. India's
ability to attract FDI would be greatly enhanced by further reforms. I argue
that India's participation in a future round of multilateral trade negotiations
would benefit India. I outline the further reforms most needed: reform of labour
and bankruptcy laws, real privatization, and fiscal consolidation. These involve
taking on entrenched vested interests, including political parties and
governments in states. Enacting them requires political courage and risk taking
which in India, as in most societies, are rare.
http://www.library.yale.edu/socsci/egcdis2.html
Kanwar, Sunil and Robert Evenson. "Does Intellectual Property Protection Spur Technological
Change?" # 831. June 2001. 35 pages.
Abstract:
Of the diverse factors motivating technological
change, one factor that has received increasing attention in the recent past has
been the protection of intellectual property rights. Given fairly recent changes
in the international policy ethos where a regime of stronger intellectual
property protection has become a fait
accompli for most developing countries,
it is of some significance to ask whether more stringent protection of
intellectual property does indeed encourage innovation. And this is the question
which this paper examines, utilising cross-country panel data on R&D
investment, patent protection and other country-specific characteristics
spanning the period 1981-1990. The evidence unambiguously indicates the
significance of intellectual property rights as incentives for spurring
innovation.
http://www.library.yale.edu/socsci/egcdis2.html
Compiled by: Pamela Jackson - Library Assistant
Center for Demography and Ecology Information Services
Rm. 4471 Social Science Building
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706-1393 USA
Email: pjackson@ssc.wisc.edu