Recently Published Working Papers in Demography : January 2001

Center for Demography and Ecology Information Services
University of Wisconsin-Madison
http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/cde/library/papers.htm

IASSA Interim Report

Lutz, Wolfgang and Warren Sanderson. "Toward a Concept of Population Balance Considering Age-Structure, Human Capital, and Intergenerational Equity." IR-01-003. Jan. 2001. 23 pages
Abstract:
This paper is a first step in trying to develop a concept incorporating population growth and population aging concerns under one analytical umbrella. Our approach is to try to achieve this through explicitly considering age structural changes through the analysis of age-specific growth rates and the new measure of Cohort Succession Ratios (CSR), which is introduced in this paper. In order to also address the issue of intergenerational equity on both the population aging and the sustainable development concerns, additional emphasis is put on human capital formation as measured by educational attainment as a proxy for productivity. Since age-, sex- and education-specific analysis can readily be carried out in a multi-state population projection context, this approach presents a feasible and operational strategy to work towards the goal of such a more general framework tentatively entitled population balance. The paper first discusses the political need for such a more general concept, and then works towards its operational definition through analytical and empirical considerations and the development of a simple simulation model considering age-, cohort- and education-specific productivity and income.
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/docs/Admin/PUB/Catalog/PUB_SUBJECT_Population_Dynamics.html [click on PDF]

Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research

Kohler, Hans-Peter and Jos Antonio Ortega. "Period Parity Progression Measures with Continued Fertility Postponement: A New Look at the Implications of Delayed Childbearing for Cohort Fertility."  MPIDR WORKING PAPER WP 2001-001. JANUARY 2001. 64 pages
Abstract:
In this paper we introduce a new set of period parity progression with continued fertility postponement in order to accoutn for two distinct implications caused by delays in childbearing: tempo distortions imply and underestimation of the quantum of fertility in observed period data, and the fertility aging effect reduces higer parity births because the respective exposure is shifted to older ages where the probability of having another child is quite low. Our measures remove the former distortion and provide means to access the latter aging effect. The measures therefore provide a unified toolkit of fertility measures thata) facilitate the description and analysis of past period fertility trends in terms of synthetic cohort behavior, and (b) allow the projection of timing, level and distribution of cohort fertility using the most recently observed period-quantum and tempo changes. Due to their explicit relation to cohort behavior, these measures extend and improve the existing adjustment of the total fertility rate. We apply these methods to Sweden during 1970-1999.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/PapersPres.htm#Work  Click on [PDF File] 

NBER 

Sacerdote, Bruce and Edward L. Glaeser. "Education and Religion." #8080 Week of Jan. 15, 2001. 53 pages.
Abstract:
In the United States, religious attendance rises sharply with education across individuals, but religious attendance declines sharply with education across denominations. This puzzle is explained if education both increases the returns to social connection and reduces the extent of religious belief. The positive effect of education on sociability explains the positive education-religion relationship. The negative effect of education on religious belief causes more educated individuals to sort into less fervent religions, which explains the negative relationship between education and religion across denominations. Cross-country differences in the impact of education on religious belief can explain the large cross-country variation in the education-religion connection. These cross-country differences in the education-belief relationship can be explained by political factors (such as communism) which lead some countries to use state-controlled education to discredit religion.
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W8080  [click pn PDF]

Currie, Janet and V. Joseph Hotz. "Accidents Will Happen? Unintentional Injury, Maternal Employment, and Child Care Policy. NBER Working Paper  No. 8090. January 2001. 46 pages.
Abstract:
In western countries, accidents are the leading cause of death and injury among children, far surpassing diseases as a health threat. We examine the effect of maternal employment and child care policy on rates of accidental injury using both micro data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) and Vital Statistics records. We find that the effects of maternal employment on unintentional injuries to children vary by demographic group, with the effects being positive for blacks and negative for whites in models that control for child-specific fixed effects. Estimates from both individual-level NLSY and Vital Statistics data suggest that the effects of maternal employment may be mediated by child care regulations. Most notably, requiring training beyond high school for caregivers reduces the incidence of both fatal and non-fatal accidents. Other types of regulation have mixed effects on unintentional injuries, suggesting that child care regulations create winners and losers. In particular, while some children may benefit from safer environments, others that appear to be squeezed out of the more expensive regulated sector and are placed at higher risks of injury. 
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W8090  [click on PDF]

OECD: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Litwack, John M. "Central Control of Regional Budget: Theory Wit Applications To Russia." No. 275 (Jan 2001). 26 pages 
Abstract:
Motivated by the recent experience in the Russian Federation, this paper examines the implications of imposing central control on the budgetary activities of a subnational government. In a highly stylised multi-task principal-agent model (Holmstrom and Milgrom (1991)), a central government cannot directly monitor the informal budgetary operations of a regional administration, but seeks to improve fiscal policies by exerting control over a "formal" regional budget and imposing (limited) costs on informal behaviour. In the static case of the model, the control of subnational budgetary operations by a benevolent central government may increase social welfare, but at the expense of higher (implicit and explicit) taxation of economic organisations in the region, lower output, and a strong orientation of informal policies toward rent seeking activities. The additional imposition of costs on regions for conducting informal budgetary operations has multiple (indeterminate) effects in general, but the imposition of small fixed costs has an unambiguously negative effect, leading to still higher informal taxation with no social benefit. Corruption, involving the payment of fixed bribes, is one interpretation of this case. Allowing for the possibility that the region may underfulfil the formal budget and divert resources "underground" creates still further problems, particularly in the Russian case of revenue sharing between budgets. Two other considerations also weaken the case for central control: a) a dependence of investment on future expected taxes in a context when long-term commitment to tax rates is politically difficult, b) a recognition that the central government is part "Leviathan," with an agenda that does not completely coincide with the pursuit of social welfare. The results are generally consistent with what appears to be the situation in most Russian regions: central control of subnational taxes, high (unfunded) federal expenditure mandates, the widespread use of numerous costly informal policy instruments, and a high (formal and informal) tax burden on business and investment.
http://www.oecd.org/eco/wp/onlinewp.htm#2001  [click on the title for PDF format]

Population Council Policy Research Division Working Papers

Durrant, Valerie L. and Zeba A. Sathar. 2000. "Greater investments in children through women's empowerment: A key to demographic change in Pakistan." Policy Research Division Working Paper No. 137. The Population Council.
Abstract:
Women's status has received considerable attention as a significant factor in demographic behavior and outcomes in South Asia; however, little research has addressed the links between women's status and their investments in children. In this paper, we empirically investigate how women's status on multiple levels is associated with demographic outcomes. Using data from the Pakistan Status of Women and Fertility Survey in rural Punjab, we confirm that empowered women, or those with higher status, are better able to make positive investments in their children, thus increasing their children's chances of survival during infancy and increasing their likelihood of ever attending school. It is in examining these two outcomes in combination that the multiple dimensions of women's status at the micro and macro levels become most apparent. Overall, the data support our hypotheses that improvements in women's status at the individual level, particularly in terms of improvement of women's position within the household, will enhance child survival, whereas improvements in women's status at the more general community level will improve the schooling chances of children, especially girls. Specifically, higher levels of women's status at the individual level, particularly in terms of access to financial resources and the absence of purdah restriction and physical abuse by husbands, are associated with a lower likelihood of infant mortality. On the other hand, higher mean levels of women's mobility and lower levels of fear of disagreeing with husbands in a community are associated with a higher likelihood that children,  especially girls, will ever attend school.
http://www.popcouncil.org/publications/wp/prd/137.html [full-text not available online at this time]

Amin, Sajeda, Alaka Malwade Basu, and Rob Stephenson. 2000. "Spatial variation in contraceptive use in Bangladesh: Looking beyond the borders."  Policy Research Division Working Paper No. 138. The Population Council.  30 pages
Abstract:
In this paper, an analysis is made of spatial patterns of contraceptive use in Bangladesh and the contiguous state of West Bengal in India in order to promote a more complete understanding of social change. Earlier analysis found strong evi-dence of higher contraceptive prevalence in districts of Bangladesh that border Bengali-speaking districts of India. Moreover, analysis of past fertility decline in Europe revealed that shared language played a critical role. Using multilevel analy-sis to control for variations in individual- and household-level correlates and map-ping districts that deviate considerably from their regional averages, the present analy-sis highlights an important role for cross-border influences only in districts that share the same language across the border. Both in Bangladesh and in West Bengal, the districts that are positive outliers in contraceptive use hug the Bangladesh-West Bengal border. Maps show that the positive outliers disregard international borders and form a contiguous band in a manner that suggests a common-cause explanation of fertility decline.
http://www.popcouncil.org/publications/wp/prd/rdwplist.html#2000 [click on download]

McNicoll, Geoffrey. 2000. "Managing population-environment systems: Problems of institutional design." Policy Research Division Working Paper No. 139. The Population Council. 32 pages.
Abstract:
In population-environment systems human activity is inherently part of the system rather than something to be minimized in order to maintain or restore "natu-ral" environmental conditions. Issues arising in managing such systems are discussed in this paper. Three preliminary sets of problems are first dealt with. The system's boundaries must be identified, defining its human participants and its ecological content. Procedures for monitoring demographic and environmental change in the system must be set up. And consensus must be reached on how to evaluate that change. Each of these tasks calls for technical knowledge of demographic and eco-logical relationships (and assessment of uncertainties); in addition each has impor-tant political and administrative dimensions. Unclear or contested boundaries, large numbers of participants, complex system dynamics and outcome indicators, and unequal stakes by participants complicate the management task. Among the general problems of designing governing institutions for large and complex population-en-vironment systems are devising compensation arrangements to remedy major asym-metries in returns to participants, enforcing compliance to agreed access rules, and building in adaptability to changing knowledge and circumstances.
http://www.popcouncil.org/publications/wp/prd/rdwplist.html#2000 [click on download]

Mensch, Barbara S. , Barbara L. Ibrahim, Susan M. Lee, and Omaima El-Gibaly. 2000. "Socialization to gender roles and marriage among Egyptian adolescents." Policy Research Division Working Paper No. 140. The Population Council. 44 pages.
Abstract:
Using nationally representative survey data, this paper explores gender role socialization and attitudes toward marriage among unmarried Egyptian adolescents aged 16-19 years. We examine the daily activities of adolescent boys and girls, views about age at marriage and desirable qualities in a spouse, and various indica-tors of gender role attitudes including opinions about whether wives should defer to husbands, about sharing household decisionmaking, and about responsibility for domestic tasks. Our findings reflect strong gender differentiation: girls have much less free time than boys, are much less mobile, are much less likely to participate in paid work, and have heavier domestic responsibilities regardless of whether or not they are in school. Girls favor a later age at marriage for both sexes, but particularly for boys. Boys are significantly more likely than girls to favor educational inequal-ity between spouses. While neither boys nor girls have particularly progressive gen-der role attitudes, girls are significantly more likely to express less traditional atti-tudes. Multivariate analyses indicate that girls' and boys' attitudes do not vary consistently and significantly by socioeconomic background; in particular, increased schooling does not always promote egalitarian attitudes. The implications of these findings for policies and programs are discussed.
http://www.popcouncil.org/publications/wp/prd/rdwplist.html#2000 [click on download]

Bongaarts, John and Elof Johansson. 2000. "Future trends in contraception in the developing world: Prevalence and method mix."  Policy Research Division Working Paper No. 141. The Population Council.  33 pages
Abstract:
The main objectives of this study are to review existing methodologies for projecting future trends in contraception, evaluate the validity of the assumptions underlying these projections, propose methodological improvements, and assess the prospects for new methods of contraception in the coming decade. The prevalence of contraception in the developing world has increased sharply over the past several decades from near zero in 1960 to around 60 percent in 2000. Demand for contra-ception can be expected to continue to rise rapidly for the next few decades as popu-lation size continues to grow and fertility declines further to near the replacement level. As a result of these trends the number of users of contraception in the develop-ing world is expected to rise from 549 million to 816 million over the next 25 years according to the most recent UN projection. An examination of the projection meth-odology found it to be reasonable. The rate of growth in users will be much more rapid in Africa than in Asia or Latin America. Projecting the future distribution of specific contraceptive methods is more difficult. Method choice is affected by trends in several factors, including access to different methods, user characteristics, and technology. The procedures employed by the Futures Group to project the method mix were found to be less than optimally designed and a new methodology was therefore proposed. The general approach is one of slow and incomplete convergence toward a more balanced method mix in each country, with uniform reductions in the role of traditional methods. The new alternative projections to 2015 are quite different from those made by the Futures Group. For example, for the developing world as a whole the proportions relying on female sterilization are higher in 2015 (37 percent rather than 26 percent), and pro-portions using traditional methods are lower (7 percent instead of 14 percent).
http://www.popcouncil.org/publications/wp/prd/rdwplist.html#2000 [click on download]

Basu, Alaka Malwade and Sajeda Amin. 2000. "Some preconditions for fertility decline in Bengal: History, language identity, and an openness to innovations." Policy Research Division Working Paper No. 142. The Population Council. 53 pages
Abstract:
This article argues that looking solely for the immediate causes of reproduc-tive change may distort our understanding of policy options by failing to take into account the historical and cultural factors that affect not only the impact of policies and programs but the very existence and nature of these policies and programs. The article examines the historical origins and spread of "modern" ideas in Bangladesh and the state of West Bengal in India. It concludes that a colonial history in which education and modernization processes took hold very early among the elites in the larger Bengal region was paradoxically accompanied by a strong allegiance to the Bengali language. This strong sense of language identity has promoted secularism because language has competed with religious and other sectarian identities. It has also facilitated and reinforced the diffusion of modern ideas both within and be-tween the two Bengali-speaking regions. Thus, to understand the fertility decline in Bangladesh, for example, one needs to look also at cultural boundaries. In this case, the cultural commonality through language facilitates the spread of new ideas across the two Bengals; and the political and religious separation between them increases the heterogeneity and newness of the ideas thus spread. In turn, the strong sense of language identity has facilitated mass mobilization more easily and intensely within the two Bengals. Through both these processes, Bangladesh and West Bengal today are more "modern" and more amenable to social change than many other parts of South Asia and the Middle East.
http://www.popcouncil.org/publications/wp/prd/rdwplist.html#2000 [click on download]

Stockholm Research Reports in Demography

Olh, Livia Sz. "Dissolution of the first parental union in Sweden and Hungary: A gender perspective." (December 2000). SRRD-142. 
Abstract:
The increasing trend of partnership disruption among families with children in recent decades has been accompanied by substantial changes in traditional gender roles in industrialized countries. Yet, relatively little is known about the effects of changing gender relations on family stability in the European context. In this paper, we study such gender influences at the familial and societal level in Sweden and Hungary between the mid-1960s and the early 1990s. We focus on the disruption of the first parental union (i.e. the union in which a couple's first child was born). Our analysis is based on data extracted from the Swedish and Hungarian Fertility and Family Surveys of 1992/93. We use the method of hazard regression. The results suggest (i) that the establishment of the dual-earner family model influences family stability only if it is accompanied by some changes in traditional gender relations within the family, and (ii) that gender differences are still apparent in the patterns of family dissolution risks for factors revealing labor-market behavior in spite of the relatively long history of women's (also mother's) labor-force participation in both Sweden and Hungary. 
http://www.suda.su.se/filelist.html  [choose to download into a Word document, Plain (online full-text, not PDF), or zip]

Syracuse University - Center for Policy Research (CPR) Working Papers

Duncombe, William and John Yinger. "Does School District Consolidation Cut Costs?" No. 33. January 2001. 56pp.
Abstract:
Over the last 50 years, consolidation has dramatically reduced the number of school districts in the United States, and state governments still recommend consolidation, especially in rural school districts, as a way to improve school district efficiency. However, state policies encouraging consolidation are often challenged on the grounds that they do not lead to cost savings and instead foster learning environments that harm student performance. Existing evidence on this topic comes largely from educational cost functions, which indicate that instructional and administrative costs are far lower in a district with 3,000 pupils than in a district with 100 pupils. However, research on the cost consequences of consolidation itself is virtually nonexistent. This paper fills this gap by evaluating the cost impacts of consolidation in rural school districts in New York over the 1985 to 1997 period. Holding student performance constant, we find evidence that school district consolidation substantially lowers operating costs, particularly when small districts are combined. The operating cost savings ranges from 22 percent for two 300-pupil districts to 8 percent for two 1,500-pupil districts. In contrast, consolidation lowers capital costs only for relatively small districts, and capital costs increase substantially when two 1,500-pupil districts come together. Overall, consolidation is likely to lower the costs of two 300-pupil districts by over 20 percent, to lower the costs of two 900-pupil districts by 7 to 9 percent, and to have little, if any, impact on the costs of two 1,500-pupil districts. State aid to cover the adjustment costs of consolidation appears to be warranted, but only in relatively small districts.
http://www-cpr.maxwell.syr.edu/cprwps/wps33abs.htm  click on Adobe Acrobat version for full-text.

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