Malone, Nolan J. "Evaluating Components of International
Migration: Consistency of 2000 Nativity Data." No. 66.
January 2002. 40 pages.
Abstract: On March 1, 2001, the U.S. Census Bureau issued the
recommendation of the Executive Steering Committee for A.C.E. Policy (ESCAP)
that the Census 2000 Redistricting Data not be adjusted based on the Accuracy
and Coverage Evaluation (A.C.E.). By mid-October 2001, the Census Bureau had to
recommend whether Census 2000 data should be adjusted for future uses, such as
the census long form data products, post-censal population estimates, and
demographic survey controls. In order to inform that decision, the ESCAP
requested that further research be conducted.
Between March and September 2001, the Demographic Analysis-Population Estimates (DAPE) research project addressed the discrepancy between the demographic analysis data and the A.C.E. adjusted estimates of the population. Specifically, the research examined the historical levels of the components of population change to address the possibility that the 1990 Demographic Analysis understated the national population and assessed whether demographic analysis had not captured the full population growth between 1990 and 2000. Assumptions regarding the components of international migration (specifically, emigration, temporary migration, legal migration, and unauthorized migration) contain the largest uncertainty in the demographic analysis estimates. Therefore, evaluating the components of international migration was a critical activity in the DAPE project.
This report focuses on the consistency of the data sources related to the foreign-born population. Specifically, the analysis examines the comparability and consistency of data from three different data sources collected in 2000: the March 2000 Current Population Survey (original and reweighted); the Census 2000 Supplementary Survey; and a provisional Census 2000 nativity data file. We examine differences in estimates among survey/census items specific to the foreign-born population – citizenship, place of birth and year of entry – as well as by general population characteristics, such as age, sex, race and Hispanic origin.
Our evaluation reveals that there is no significant difference in the total
foreign born estimated among the data sources (when controlling for differences
in coverage and methodologies). The provisional Census 2000 estimate of 30.6
million foreign born does not differ significantly from the Census 2000
Supplementary Survey estimate of 30.5 million foreign born. Further, both of
these figures fall within the 90-percent confidence interval of the (reweighted)
March 2000 Current Population Survey estimate of 30.1 million foreign born.
Additional detailed comparisons show similar results, a general consistency in
nativity data across data sources.
http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/population/www/techpap.html
De Santis, Gustavo. "Population
Ageing in Industrialized Countries: Challenges and Issues." No.
19. December 2001. 17 pages.
Abstract: None available
http://www.iussp.org/English Site/Publications/7listPRP.htm
Agree, Emily. "Alleviating Disability and Unmet Need:
Differential Dimensions addressed by Assistive Technoloy and Personal
Care." WP 01-4. January 2002. 27 pages.
Abstract: Purpose. To examine differences in reports of residual
disability and unmet need by type of care arrangement (assistive technology
and/or personal care) amongst disabled adults.
Method. This study compares three specific dimensions of residual difficulty
(pain, fatigue, and time intensity) and unmet need for hands-on care across
combinations of assistive technology and personal care. Analyses are conducted
on samples of between 3,493 to 7,051 persons with limitations in bathing,
transferring, walking, and getting outside from the U.S. 1994-95 National Health
Interview Survey Phase 2 Disability Supplements. Results. Even accounting for
differences in underlying disability, equipment use confers no additional
benefit in the three dimensions of residual difficulty analyzed here. Equipment
users equally or more often report that tasks are tiring or time consuming, or
painful even when they use assistance. Though this would appear to indicate
unmet needs for care, fewer equipment users report a desire for hands on
personal care. Conclusions. We find that disability alleviation by technology is
no better on specific dimensions of difficulty, but technology users report less
unmet need for personal care. Designing appropriate and cost-effective home care
for disabled adults depends upon an understanding of the ways in which
technology users may differ from others and the circumstances in which
technology can be most effective.
http://popctr.jhsph.edu/publications/wp/index.html
Kohler, Hans-Peter, Lisbeth B.
Knudsen, Axel Skytthe, and Kaare Christensen. "The
Fertility Pattern of Twins and the General Population Compared: Evidence from
Danish Cohorts 1945-64." WP-2002-005. January 2002. 26
pages.
Twin studies provide an important possibility for demographers to analyze
patterns of heritability and to estimate structural models with controls for
endowments. These possibilities are increasingly used in the context of
fertility and related behaviors. A close congruence between the fertility
patterns of twins and that of the general population, however, is an essential
pre-condition in order to generalize the results of twin-based investigations of
fertility and related behaviors to the general population. In this paper we
therefore compare the fertility of Danish twins born 1945--64 to the fertility
pattern of the general population born during the same period. Our analyses find
a very close correspondence between the fertility pattern of twins and of the
general population. There exist only few statistically significant differences,
and the primary difference pertains to the fact that female twins have a
slightly later onset of childbearing than non-twins. There are virtually no
relevant differences between the fertility patterns of dizygotic and monozygotic
twins.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm
Buber, Isabella. "The influence of the distribution of
household and childrearing tasks between men and women on childbearing
intentions in Austria." WP-2002-004. January 2002. 53
pages.
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to look at the extent to which the division of household work and childrearing and the perception of how fair these tasks are divided influence plans of further childbearing. We concentrate on women with one child and want to look at the question whether a woman whose partner shares the domestic responsibilities with her wishes to have a second child more often than a woman with a partner who does not help out. The data used in this study are drawn from the Austrian Fertility and Family Survey 1995/96, which includes biographies of partnerships and childbearing, detailed information on the division of household chores and childcare duties between the two sexes, and the desire for a (another) child. We model the desire for a second child using a probit model. The major findings of the paper are that sharing childcare duties among couples is a driving force behind plans of further childbearing, whereas the division of feminine household tasks between men and women has no explanatory power. Our results also illustrate that the satisfaction of a woman with her contribution to childrearing is a predictor of an increased desire for a second child.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm
Wienke, Andreas, Anne M. Herskind, Kaare Christensen, Axel Skytthe,
and Anatoli I. Yashin.
"The influence of smoking and BMI on heritablity in susceptibility
to coronary heart disease." WP 2002-03. January 2002. 13
pages.
Abstract: Cause-specific mortality data on Danish monozygotic (MZ) and
dizygotic (DZ) twins are used to analyze the influence of smoking and body mass
index (BMI) on heritability estimates of susceptibility to coronary heart
disease (CHD). The sample includes 1209 like-sexed twin pairs born between 1890
and 1920, where both individuals were still alive and answered a questionnaire,
including information about smoking, height and weight, in 1966. The analysis
was conducted with both sexes pooled due to the relatively small number of twin
pairs. Follow-up was conducted from 1 January 1966 to 31 December 1993. We use
the correlated gamma-frailty model with observed covariates for the genetic
analysis of frailty to account for censoring and truncation in the lifetime
data. During the follow-up, 1437 deaths occurred, including 435 deaths due to
CHD. Proportions of variance of frailty attributable to genetic and
environmental factors were analyzed using the structural equation model
approach. Different standard biometric models are fitted to the data to evaluate
the magnitude and nature of genetic and environmental factors on mortality.
Using the best fitting model without covariates, heritability of frailty to CHD
was found to be 0.45 (0.11). This result changes only slightly to 0.54 (0.16)
after controlling for smoking and BMI. This analysis underlines the existence of
a substantial genetic influence on individual frailty associated with mortality
caused by CHD. No evidence for common genetic factors acting on smoking, BMI,
and susceptibility to CHD are found which indicates that the association between
smoking and susceptibility to CHD and BMI and susceptibility to CHD is not
confounded by common genetic factors.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm
Kohlmann, Annette. "Fertility Intentions in a
Cross-Cultural View: The Value of Children Reconsidered." WP
2002-02. September 2001. 38 pages.
Abstract: This paper seeks to explain the
differences in fertility intentions between Turkey and Japan, based
on a theoretical modification of the social-psychological concept of the ‘Value
of Children’. We assume that the ‘Value
of Children’ consists of their support for their parents in order to achieve
general human goals. We investigate the causal
structure between individual socio-economic characteristics
and the ‘Value of Children’ and fertility intentions.
We use data from the original "Value of
Children Studies", including women in their reproductive
age, with children born in wedlock. Based on confirmatory factor analyses and
structural equation models, we find that in both
countries fertility intentions are related to the instrumentality
of children to their parents as well as to socio-economic characteristics and
institutionally defined opportunities. The ‘Value
of Children’ is in part determined by socio-economic independent
variables; however, we also observe direct effects that can not be reduced to
the instrumentality of children. Therefore, the
endogenization of the effects of the ‘Value of Children’ on
fertility intentions is limited.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm
Denton, Frank T.Christine H. Feaver, and Byron G.
Spencer. "Alternative Pasts, Possible Futures: A
"What If" Study of Fertility on the Canadian Population and Labour
Force.' R.R. No. 367. January 2001. 37 pages.
Abstract: The "baby boom" that followed World War II, and
the subsequent "baby bust", have cast a long shadow over the Canadian
population, society, and economy. Drawing on a series of counterfactual
projections, this paper considers what the year 2001 would have looked like if
things had been different if there had been no baby boom or no bust, or if the
bust had been delayed, to take three examples. The paper then considers what
will happen in the coming decades under a number of alternative assumptions. A
major finding is that the boom had much less impact on the 2001 age structure of
the population and labour force than did the bust that followed. For the future,
population aging, slower rates of growth, and increased dependency ratios are
likely features, but one should be careful not to overestimate the prospective
"dependency burden".
http://socserv2.socsci.mcmaster.ca/~qsep/
Lichtenberg, Frank R. "Sources of U.S. Longevity Increase,
1960-1997." #8755. January 2002. 32 pages.
Abstract: Between 1960 and 1997, life expectancy at birth of Americans
increased approximately 10% - from 69.7 to 76.5 years - and it has been
estimated that the value of life extension during this period nearly equaled the
gains in tangible consumption. We investigate whether an aggregate health
production function can help to explain the substantial fluctuations in the rate
of increase in longevity since 1960. We view longevity as the output of the
health production function, and output fluctuations as the consequence of
fluctuations in medical inputs (expenditure) and technology. We estimate
longevity models using annual U.S. time-series data on life expectancy, health
expenditure, and medical innovation. Reliable annual data are available for only
one type of innovation - new drugs - but pharmaceutical R&D accounts for a
significant fraction of total biomedical research. The empirical analysis
provides strong support for the hypothesis that both medical innovation (in the
form of new drug approvals) and expenditure on medical care (especially public
expenditure) contributed to longevity increase during the period 1960-1997. The
estimates imply that the medical expenditure needed to gain one life-year is
about $11,000, and that the pharmaceutical R&D expenditure needed to gain
one life-year is about $1,345. Previous researchers have estimated that the
average value of a life-year is approximately $150,000.
http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest)
Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnemand and David N. Weil. "Mortality Change, the Uncertainty Effect, and Retirement."
#8742. January 2002. 32 pages.
Abstract: We examine the role of changing mortality in explaining the rise
of retirement over the course of the 20th century. We construct a model in which
individuals make labor/leisure choices over their lifetimes subject to
uncertainty about their date of death. In an environment in which mortality is
high, an individual who saved up for retirement would face a high risk of dying
before he could enjoy his planned leisure. In this case, the optimal plan is for
people to work until they die. As mortality falls, however, it becomes optimal
to plan, and save for, retirement. We simulate our model using actual changes in
the US life table over the last century, and show that this 'uncertainty effect'
of declining mortality would have more than outweighed the 'horizon effect' by
which rising life expectancy would have led to later retirement. One of our key
results is that continuous changes in mortality can lead to discontinuous
changes in retirement behavior.
http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest)
Kerr, Don. "Family Transformations and the Well-being of
Children: Recent Evidence from Canadian Longitudinal Data." No.
01-17. December 2001. 30 pages.
Abstract: None available.
http://www.ssc.uwo.ca/sociology/popstudies/dp2001.html
Compiled by: Kari Swanson - Library Assistant
Center for Demography and Ecology Information Services
Rm. 4471 Social Science Building
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706-1393 USA
Email: kswanson@ssc.wisc.edu