Recently Published Working Papers in Demography : February 2002

Center for Demography and Ecology Information Services
University of Wisconsin-Madison
http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/cde/library/papers.htm

 

Luxembourg Income Study (LIS) 

Atkinson, Tony, Andrea Brandolini, and Timothy M. Smeeding.  "Producing Time Series Data for Income Distribution:  Sources, Methods and Techniques."  No. 295.  January 2001.  37 pages.
Abstract:  This chapter addresses the important issue of the quality of time series data on income distribution. We hope to suggest both standards and practice patterns that will improve the production and use of time series data on inequality. Thus, we address three groups: primary data producers; secondary data producers (who assemble databanks from primary data sources), and users. We consider measurement error in both theory and practice. Along the way we include a number of practical suggestions for improving the comparability of time series data and trend analyses for income distribution.
http://lisweb.ceps.lu/publications/wpapersf.htm

Smeeding, Timothy.  "The LIS/LES Project:  Overview and Recent Developments."  No. 294.  January 2002.  23 pages.
Abstract:  The Luxembourg Income Study (LIS) project is one of the oldest and best-known examples of crossnational social science infrastructure. Some 25 nations and 20 sponsors team together to provide internet accessible, privacy-protected, household income microdata to over 400 users in 30 nations. The project is financed by annual contributions by 16 nations' National Science Foundations and/or National Statistical Offices. One of the most crucial pieces of the LIS structure is the source and type of data that it offers to its users. This paper describes these data, both for income (LIS) and labor force data (LES), where they are obtained, harmonized, and made available. It presents a critical discussion of where the project is today and where and how international data collection efforts can improve upon both the quality of income data and its dissemination to qualified researchers. The paper also explains the benefits to countries such as Japan for joining the LIS project.
http://lisweb.ceps.lu/publications/wpapersf.htm

Jesuit, David and Timothy Smeeding.  "Poverty and Income Distribution."  No. 293.  January 2002.  13 pages.
Abstract:  None available.
http://lisweb.ceps.lu/publications/wpapersf.htm

Mahler, Vincent A.  "Exploring the Subnational Dimension of Income Inequality:  An Analysis of the Relationship Between Inequality and Electoral Turnout in the Developed Countries."  No. 292.  January 2002.  44 pages.
Abstract:  This paper offers an exploratory analysis of the subnational dimension of income inequality, using data from the Luxembourg Income Study. The paper undertakes two basic tasks. First, it describes the results of calculations on household-level income data that produce indicators of intra- and inter-household inequality for 191 regions in 12 developed countries for the late 1980s and early 1990s, and for 149 regions in 8 countries for the mid-1990s. Second, the paper demonstrates the value of regional analysis by re-examining the relationship between electoral turnout and income inequality, an important substantive issue which has heretofore been explored almost entirely at the national or individual level but upon which regional-level analysis can shed valuable light.
http://lisweb.ceps.lu/publications/wpapersf.htm

Hiilamo, Heikki.  "Family Policy Changes at the Micro-Level in Sweden and Finland During the 1990's."  No. 291.  January 2002.  42 pages.
Abstract:  Up to the 1990s the development of family policy was an integral part of the success story of the Nordic welfare state. This article aims to evaluate the impact of legislative amendments to family policy at the micro-level in Sweden and Finland during the 1990s. We follow the micro-level development of family policy and assess whether the changes in family policy during the 1990s led Finland and Sweden away from the Nordic model.
http://lisweb.ceps.lu/publications/wpapersf.htm

Hiilamo, Heikki.   "Family Policy Models and Family Policy Outcomes - A Nordic Perspective."  No. 290.  January 2002.  40 pages.
Abstract:  Constructing typologies or categories of welfare states characterized social policy research during the last decade. Esping-Andersen's Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism (1990) launched an avalanche of typologies. Interest in cross-national comparisons has been facilitated by several attempts to construct theoretical models that could capture or summarize the similarities and differences in contemporary family policies employed in Western industrial countries. However, contrary to welfare state classifications, there is so far very little -- if any -- empirical evidence at the institutional or the individual level to support any family policy typology. This analysis tries to validate the characteristics of the ideal Nordic family policy model at the outcome level by using micro-data comparisons between countries representing different family policy models. The micro datasets are used to describe the outcomes of family policy models. The unique characteristics of Nordic family policy are based on the country-specific features suggested by earlier research. These characteristics are summarized into six indicators on outcome level, which, in turn, are operationalised and calculated for micro datasets on example countries of different family policy models. We have as our point of reference a limited number of countries with different family policy traditions.
http://lisweb.ceps.lu/publications/wpapersf.htm

Kurashige, Yasuhiko  and Bong Hwan Cho.  "Low Incomes in Agriculture in OECD Countries."  No. 289.  December 2001.  124 pages.
Abstract:  This study examines low income in agriculture. It uses microeconomic data and provides an analysis of the incidence of low incomes in farm households compared to other households. Social security policies as they affect agricultural households are described and the impact of taxes and transfers are examined for both farm and non-farm households by comparing incomes before and after tax and social transfers.
http://lisweb.ceps.lu/publications/wpapersf.htm

Abe, Aya K.  "Universalism and Targeting:  An International Comparison using the LIS database."  No. 288.  December 2001.  25 pages.
Abstract:  In combating poverty, whether or not to design a universal program or a targeted program has been a perpetual dilemma. The objective of this paper is to conduct an international comparison of the "universality" and "targeting" of social security systems. The paper presents an outline of methodologies used in assessing the universality and categorical targeting of the poor. Two methodologies are employed. The first builds on the work of Beckerman and examines how positive and negative net transfers are distributed using micro-data from eleven countries; the second employs a logistic regression method to estimate the effects of the initial poverty gap and categorical status of a household on its poverty outcome. The data used are drawn from the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS) database and a micro-data from the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan.
http://lisweb.ceps.lu/publications/wpapersf.htm


Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research

Wienke, A.,  K. Christensen, A. Skytthe, and A.I. Yashin.  "Genetic analysis of cause of death in a bivariate lifetime model with dependent competing risks."  WP-2002-013.  February 2002.  26 pages.
Abstract:  A mixture model in multivariate survival analysis is presented, whereby heterogeneity among subjects creates divergent paths for the individual's risk of experiencing an event (i.e., disease), as well as for the associated length of survival. Dependence among competing risks is included and rendered testable. This method is an extension of the bivariate correlated gamma-frailty model. It is applied to a data set on Danish twins, for whom cause-specific mortality is known. The use of multivariate data solves the identifiability problem which is inherent in the competing risk model of univariate lifetimes. We analyse the influence of genetic and environmental factors on frailty. Using a sample of 1470 monozygotic (MZ) and 2730 dizygotic (DZ) female twin pairs, we apply five genetic models to the associated mortality data, focusing particularly on death from coronary heart disease (CHD). Using the best fitting model, the inheritance risk of death from CHD was 0.39 (standard error 0.13). The results from this model are compared with the results from earlier analysis that used the restricted model, where the independence of competing risks was assumed. Comparing both cases, it turns out, that heritability of frailty on mortality due to CHD change substantially. Despite the inclusion of dependence, analysis confirms the significant genetic component to an individual's risk of mortality from CHD. Whether dependence or independence is assumed, the best model for analysis with regard to CHD mortality risks is an AE model, implying that additive factors are responsible for heritability in susceptibility to CHD. The paper ends with a discussion of limitations and possible further extensions to the model presented.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm

Liu, G.  "Divorce Risks of Swedish Women in First Marriages:  Two cohorts born in 1950 and 1960."  WP-2002-012.  February 2002.  19 pages.
Abstract:  In this paper, we study first-marriage divorce risks in two cohorts of Swedish women, namely, those born in 1950 and 1960. We develop a hazard model with a piecewise-linear baseline log-hazard. First, we run the model without unobserved heterogeneity and second, we run the model with such a term. We have found a divorce pattern for Swedish women similar to what other researchers have found. Facilitated by having both cohort data and efficient software (aML), we were able to get a clear picture of the timing pattern of first marital dissolution risks. Our 1950 cohort model without unobserved heterogeneity does not produce any biased results; our 1960 cohort model with no unobserved heterogeneity overestimates the baseline hazard and evidently underestimates some of the coefficients.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm

Tolke, A. and M. Diewald.  "Berufsbiographische Unsicherheiten und der Ubergang zur Elternschaft bei Mannern."  WP-2002-011.  February 2002.  32 pages.  
Abstract:  In this paper we look at the impact of employment on family development with reference to men. We investigate the extent to which insecurities in the employment career have an effect on family formation. By comparing the life histories and life situation of men in East and West Germany, we are able to retrieve information about the effects of different social systems on the transition to fatherhood. We use logistic regression models to analyze data of the ´Familiensurvey´ of the German Youth Institute conducted in the year 2000.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm

Kohler, I., J. Kaltchev, and M. Dimova.  "Integrated Information System for Demographic Statistics 'ESGRAON-TDS' in Bulgaria."  WP-2002-010.  February 2002.  29 pages.
Abstract:  In this paper we describe the Bulgarian statistical system that provides unique research possibilities for demographic analyses. In particular, we review the methodology, structure and informational flows for population registration and the registration of vital events in Bulgaria. In addition, we describe the main elements of the most recent Bulgarian census from March 1, 2001. In the last part of the paper, we pay special attention to data protection and data confidentiality issues in Bulgaria.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm

Solis, P. and  F.C. Billari.  "Work Lives amid Social Change and Continuity:  Occupational Trajectories in Monterrey, Mexico."  WP-2002-009. February 2002.  54 pages. 
Abstract:  In this paper we use sequence analysis to study the occupational trajectories between the ages 14 and 30 for men in Monterrey, the third largest city of Mexico. We build typologies of trajectories based on life-history data and then explore changes in the frequency of these ´typical´ trajectories over time as well as differences across socioeconomic groups. Cohort trends reveal more continuities than changes in occupational trajectories, despite the structural changes experienced by the city in the last two decades. Career patterns are closely related to family origins and educational attainment, thus suggesting the continuing importance of both ascribed and attained characteristics on occupational outcomes.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm  

Engelhardt, H., H. Trappe, and J. Dronkers.  "Differences in Family Policy and the Intergenerational Transmission of Divorce:  A Comparison between the former East and West Germany."  WP-2002-0008.  February 2002.  38 pages.
Abstract:  The intergenerational transmission of the risk of divorce is a well-known long-term effect of divorce that has been found in many Western societies. Less known is the extent to which different family policies and divorce laws have an effect on the intergenerational transmission of divorce. In this paper, the division of Germany into two separate states from 1949 until 1990, with the consequent development of two very different family policies, is regarded as a natural experiment that enables us to investigate the effect of family policy on the mechanisms underlying the social inheritance of divorce. Data from respondents from the former East and West Germany participating in the German Life History Study are analyzed, using multivariate event-history methods. The results indicate that the strength of the intergenerational divorce transmission, when adjusted for differences in the divorce level, was lower in the East than in the West. Differences in marriage age and the timing of first birth, which are partial indicators of family policy, as well as differences in religion, could explain this effect. Furthermore, we found a tendency towards a reduction in the dynamics of divorce transmission over time, both in East and West Germany.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm

Braun, N. and H. Engelhardt,.  "Diffusion Processes and Event History Analysis."  WP-2002-007.  February 2002.  27 pages.
Abstract:  Several authors (e.g., Brüderl, Diekmann, Yamaguchi) derive hazard rate models of event history analysis from social diffusion processes. This paper also focuses on the integration of diffusion research and survival analysis. After a discussion of Diekmann’s flexible diffusion model, we present an alternative approach which clarifies theoretical differences between popular rate models (e.g., the exponential model, log-logistic model, sickle model).  Specifically, this approach provides a new rationale for the generalized log-logistic model in the sense of a flexible infection process. In cases with bell-shaped duration dependence, it thus allows a test for social contagion as a result of random contacts between actual and potential adopters. An application to divorce data serves as an illustration.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm

Borgoni, R. and U.C. Ewert and A. Furnkranz-Prskawetz.  "How important are household demographic characteristics to explain private car use patterns?  A miltilevel approach to Austrian data."  WP 2002-006.  February 2002.  27 pages.
Abstract:  Private car use is one of the major contributors to pollution in industrialized countries. It is therefore important to understand the factors that determine the demand for car use. In explaining the variability in car use, it is important to take into account household demographic characteristics and local and regional differences in infrastructure, in addition to the economic variables commonly used in the prevailing literature on the topic. The appropriate tool to explain car ownership and car use is, therefore, a multilevel statistical approach. An Austrian household survey from 1997 finds that household characteristics such as age, gender, education and employment of the household head, household size and housing quality can effect the variability of car ownership and car use. The same survey also gives a clear indication of regional heterogeneity. This heterogeneity persists when we controlled for the variability of regional economic welfare and infrastructure as indicated by population density.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm

Kohler, Hans-Peter, Lisbeth B. Knudsen, Axel Skytthe, and Kaare Christensen.  "The Fertility Pattern of Twins and the General Population Compared: Evidence from Danish Cohorts 1945-64."  WP-2002-005.  January 2002.  26 pages.
Twin studies provide an important possibility for demographers to analyze patterns of heritability and to estimate structural models with controls for endowments. These possibilities are increasingly used in the context of fertility and related behaviors. A close congruence between the fertility patterns of twins and that of the general population, however, is an essential pre-condition in order to generalize the results of twin-based investigations of fertility and related behaviors to the general population. In this paper we therefore compare the fertility of Danish twins born 1945--64 to the fertility pattern of the general population born during the same period. Our analyses find a very close correspondence between the fertility pattern of twins and of the general population. There exist only few statistically significant differences, and the primary difference pertains to the fact that female twins have a slightly later onset of childbearing than non-twins. There are virtually no relevant differences between the fertility patterns of dizygotic and monozygotic twins.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm

Buber, Isabella.  "The influence of the distribution of household and childrearing tasks between men and women on childbearing intentions in Austria."  WP-2002-004.  January 2002.  53 pages.
Abstract:  The purpose of this paper is to look at the extent to which the division of household work and childrearing and the perception of how fair these tasks are divided influence plans of further childbearing. We concentrate on women with one child and want to look at the question whether a woman whose partner shares the domestic responsibilities with her wishes to have a second child more often than a woman with a partner who does not help out. The data used in this study are drawn from the Austrian Fertility and Family Survey 1995/96, which includes biographies of partnerships and childbearing, detailed information on the division of household chores and childcare duties between the two sexes, and the desire for a (another) child. We model the desire for a second child using a probit model. The major findings of the paper are that sharing childcare duties among couples is a driving force behind plans of further childbearing, whereas the division of feminine household tasks between men and women has no explanatory power. Our results also illustrate that the satisfaction of a woman with her contribution to childrearing is a predictor of an increased desire for a second child. 
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm

Wienke, Andreas, Anne M. Herskind,  Kaare Christensen, Axel Skytthe, and Anatoli I. Yashin.   "The influence of smoking and BMI on heritablity in susceptibility to coronary heart disease."  WP 2002-03.  January 2002.  13 pages.
Abstract:  Cause-specific mortality data on Danish monozygotic (MZ) and dizygotic (DZ) twins are used to analyze the influence of smoking and body mass index (BMI) on heritability estimates of susceptibility to coronary heart disease (CHD). The sample includes 1209 like-sexed twin pairs born between 1890 and 1920, where both individuals were still alive and answered a questionnaire, including information about smoking, height and weight, in 1966. The analysis was conducted with both sexes pooled due to the relatively small number of twin pairs. Follow-up was conducted from 1 January 1966 to 31 December 1993. We use the correlated gamma-frailty model with observed covariates for the genetic analysis of frailty to account for censoring and truncation in the lifetime data. During the follow-up, 1437 deaths occurred, including 435 deaths due to CHD. Proportions of variance of frailty attributable to genetic and environmental factors were analyzed using the structural equation model approach. Different standard biometric models are fitted to the data to evaluate the magnitude and nature of genetic and environmental factors on mortality. Using the best fitting model without covariates, heritability of frailty to CHD was found to be 0.45 (0.11). This result changes only slightly to 0.54 (0.16) after controlling for smoking and BMI. This analysis underlines the existence of a substantial genetic influence on individual frailty associated with mortality caused by CHD. No evidence for common genetic factors acting on smoking, BMI, and susceptibility to CHD are found which indicates that the association between smoking and susceptibility to CHD and BMI and susceptibility to CHD is not confounded by common genetic factors.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm

Kohlmann, Annette.  "Fertility Intentions in a Cross-Cultural View:  The Value of Children Reconsidered."  WP 2002-02.  September 2001.  38 pages.
Abstract:  This paper seeks to explain the differences in fertility intentions between Turkey and Japan, based on a theoretical modification of the social-psychological concept of the ‘Value of Children’. We assume that the ‘Value of Children’ consists of their support for their parents in order to achieve general human goals. We investigate the causal structure between individual socio-economic characteristics and the ‘Value of Children’ and fertility intentions.

We use data from the original "Value of Children Studies", including women in their reproductive age, with children born in wedlock. Based on confirmatory factor analyses and structural equation models, we find that in both countries fertility intentions are related to the instrumentality of children to their parents as well as to socio-economic characteristics and institutionally defined opportunities. The ‘Value of Children’ is in part determined by socio-economic independent variables; however, we also observe direct effects that can not be reduced to the instrumentality of children. Therefore, the endogenization of the effects of the ‘Value of Children’ on fertility intentions is limited.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) 


Chan, Sewin  and Ann Huff Stevens.
  "How Does Job Loss Affect the Timing of Retirement?"   #8780.  February 2002.  35 pages.
Abstract:  We use the Health and Retirement Study to examine the effects of job loss on factors affecting retirement incentives, including earnings, assets and pensions. We then estimate models of the retirement decision, which take into account the incentive to retire and any additional effects of displacement that are not captured by retirement incentives. There are substantial effects of displacement on retirement incentives as the result of changes to both earnings and pensions. Displacement significantly increases the probability of retirement, but only a small fraction of the displacement-induced changes in retirement behavior and labor force participation are the result of workers responding to these altered retirement incentives.
http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest)

Gustman, Alan L. and Thomas L. Steinmeier.  "Social Security, Pensions, and Retirement Behavior Within the Family."  #8772February 2002.  48 pages.
Abstract:  This paper estimates a structural model of family retirement using U.S. data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and from the National Longitudinal Survey of Mature Women. Estimates using the HRS benefit from having, for each spouse, earnings histories provided by the respondent and the Social Security Administration, and employer provided pension plan descriptions. We find that a measure of how much each spouse values being able to spend time in retirement with the other accounts for a good portion of the apparent interdependence of the retirement decisions of husbands and wives. When we include this measure, the simulations almost double the frequency of predicted joint retirements. Once estimated, we use the model to investigate the labor supply effects of alternative social security policies, examining the effect of dividing credit for earnings evenly between spouses, or of basing social security benefits on the amounts accumulated in private accounts. Both policies change the relative importance of spouse and survivor social security benefits within the household and both raise the relative reward to work later in the life cycle. The incentives created are modest, and retirement responds accordingly. Nevertheless, at some ages, such as 65, there may be as much as a 6 percent increase in the old age work force under privatized accounts.
http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest)

Population Council.  Policy Research Division.  

Bongaarts, John and Griffith Feeney.  "How long do we live?" No. 156.  2002.  24 pages.
Abstract:  Period life expectancy is calculated from age-specific death rates using life table methods that are among the oldest and most fundamental tools of demography. These methods are rarely questioned, much less criticized. Yet changing age patterns of adult mortality in contemporary countries with high life expectancy provide a basis for questioning the conventional use of age-specific death rates and life tables. This paper argues that when the mean age at death is rising, period life expectancy at birth as conventionally calculated overestimates life expectancy. Estimates of this upward bias, ranging from 1.6 years for the United States and Sweden to 3.3 years for Japan for 1980–95, are presented. A similar bias in the opposite direction occurs when mean age at death is falling. These biases can also distort trends in life expectancy as conventionally calculated and may affect projections of future trends in period life expectancy.
http://www.popcouncil.org/publications/wp/prd/rdwplist.html#2000

Zimmer, Zachary, Linda G. Martin, and Ming-Cheng Chang, "Changes in functional limitations and survival among the elderly in Taiwan: 1993, 1996, and 1999."  No. 155.  2002.  25 pages.
Abstract:  This paper focuses on changes in the prevalence of functional limitations among nationally representative samples of adults aged 65 and older in Taiwan as measured in 1993, 1996, and 1999. Using data from the Survey of Health and Living Status of the Elderly in Taiwan, we investigate changes in difficulties walking and climbing stairs, two tasks that represent basic lower body movements that are less likely to be influenced by changes in living environments and social roles than are activities of daily living and instrumental activities of daily living. Results are shown for both unadjusted prevalence rates and rates adjusted for changes in population composition. Findings indicate that Taiwan does not appear to be experiencing the improvements in functioning that have been witnessed recently in the United States. The prevalence of functional limitation increased between 1993 and 1996 and between 1996 and 1999. One possible reason for the increase in limitation is the change in old-age survival in Taiwan, which appeared over the study period to have benefited those who have functional limitations, especially in a severe form. The country’s Universal Health Insurance program, established in 1995, may have increased access to care and thus survival of those in poorest health.
http://www.popcouncil.org/publications/wp/prd/rdwplist.html#2000

Hewett, Paul C. and Mark R. Montgomery.  "Poverty and public services in developing-country cities."  No. 154.  2001.  67 pages.
Abstract:  In developing countries, neither households nor firms can count on having access to basic public services. Households lacking adequate water supply and sanitation face elevated health risks; firms and micro-enterprises lacking electricity and water face higher costs of production. For reasons such s these, the inadequate provision of public services can compromise health, hinder economic growth, and stymie efforts to reduce poverty. This paper examines the availability of services in the cities and towns of developing countries, using data drawn from the Demographic and Health Surveys. Particular attention is given to the urban poor, who will form a group of increasing numerical and policy significance as levels of urbanization rise. We find that wide rural-urban gaps remain in service delivery, and that smaller cities—where about half of urban residents live—are notably under-served by comparison with larger cities. Poor urban households are much less likely than other urban households to enjoy access to public services. Inequities such as these underscore the need for continued public sector investments in service delivery. But the political economy of urban governance is changing in a way that may well frustrate efforts to improve services. Across the developing world, national governments are increasingly decentralizing their service delivery functions to lower tiers of government, often without making commensurate transfers of funds or revenue-raising authority. As nation-states recede from the local scene, local governments may be left without the means to fill the gaps in service delivery.
http://www.popcouncil.org/publications/wp/prd/rdwplist.html#2000

Montgomery, Mark R., Gebre-Egziabher Kiros, Dominic Agyeman, John B. Casterline, Peter Aglobitse, and Paul C. Hewett, "Social networks and contraceptive dynamics in southern Ghana."  No. 153.  2001.  49 pages.
Abstract:  There is accumulating evidence that social diffusion processes affect the pace of the adoption of modern contraception in societies undergoing fertility transition. In settings where mortality has declined and many other social and economic changes are underway, decisions about contraception are fraught with uncertainty and risk. In such circumstances, couples may rely on other persons for information and guidance. In this paper, we examine the influence of informal social networks on the contraceptive behavior of reproductive-age women, using longitudinal data collected in six communities in southern Ghana. Our results confirm the hypothesis that adop-tion of modern contraception is strongly affected by the reproductive attitudes and behaviors of social network partners. What might be termed “social contagion” ac-celerates the adoption of contraception. Finally, our data reveal that social networks are structured along the lines of social, economic, and cultural characteristics, suggesting further pathways by which socioeconomic variables can influence reproductive behavior.
http://www.popcouncil.org/publications/wp/prd/rdwplist.html#2000

University of Michigan. Population Studies Center.  Research Reports

Knodel, John and Chanpen Saengtienchai. "AIDS and Older Persons: The View from Thailand."  No. 02-497. February 2002.  39 pages.
Abstract:  Although little attention has been paid to older adults in the context of the global AIDS epidemic, they not only can contract HIV themselves but, far more commonly, they experience multiple consequences as in their role as parents of younger adults who become ill and die from AIDS. Older persons also make significant contributions to the well-being of younger adults who suffer from AIDS by playing a major role in caregiving to their infected sons and daughters and by assuming the role of foster parents for their grandchildren who are left behind as AIDS orphans emphasizing the consequences for and the contributions by older persons in their role as AIDS parents. The analysis is based primarily on interviews with key informants about individual AIDS cases and their families; direct survey interviews with AIDS parents and a comparison group of older persons; and in-depth interviews with AIDS parents. The first two permit quantitative analysis while the third is suited for qualitative analysis.
http://141.211.200.59/pubs/FMPro?-db=items&-lay=web&-format=results.html&-max=30&series+code=rr&-SortField=pubyear&-SortOrder=descend&-SortField=Month+Number&-SortOrder=descend&-token=verb&-find

Frey, William H. "Metro Magnets for Minorities and Whites: Melting Pots, the New Sunbelt, and the Heartland ."  No. 02-496. February 2002. 19 pages. 
Abstract:   The recent census trends make apparent that the US is not close to becoming a single melting pot, where each minority group both spreads and blends evenly from coast to coast. Rather than forming a homogenous, national melting pot, America’s racial demographic landscape is becoming more distinctly regional in its makeup. As such, commentators, marketers and political analysts will need to make distinctions between the nation’s "Multiple Melting Pots", its more suburban-like "New Sunbelt," its predominantly white " Heartland".

This report examines 1990-2000 changes in racial concentration and change among the nation’s metropolitan areas, and counties to support this view It identifies only a handful of metropolitan areas with demographic profiles that qualify them as potential "melting pots" and even fewer where the population turned to a "majority minority" since the previous decennial census.

Recent regional racial shifts make plain that: as blacks return to the South, as melting pot regions become infused with more immigrants, as the New Sunbelt attracts more coastal suburbanites, and as the non-growing northern heartland remains mostly white, America’s regions are evolving in decidedly different directions. It is important for commentators, political analysts, and those that monitor consumer behavior to take cognizance of these sharp regional divisions, rather than maintaining the illusion of a national melting pot.
http://141.211.200.59/pubs/FMPro?-db=items&-lay=web&-format=results.html&-max=30&series+code=rr&-SortField=pubyear&-SortOrder=descend&-SortField=Month+Number&-SortOrder=descend&-token=verb&-find

Knodel, John, Susan Watkins, and Mark VanLandingham.  "AIDS and Older Persons: An International Perspective."  No. 02-495.  January 2002.  21 pages.
Abstract:  The impact of the worldwide AIDS epidemic on persons age 50 and over has received relatively little consideration except in the United States where interest has focused almost exclusively on older persons living with AIDS or at risk of infection. The place of older persons in the epidemic deserves international attention because their lives are being significantly affected in a variety of ways. Since most of the epidemic occurs in the developing regions, especially Africa and Asia, efforts to understand and deal with the concerns of older persons in relation to AIDS in those settings needs expansion. Although older persons represent a non-negligible minority of the reported global caseload, a far higher proportion are affected through the illness and death of their adult children and younger generation relatives who contract AIDS. From a global perspective, a broader concern encompassing those who are affected through the infections of others rather than a narrow concern with those who are at risk or infected themselves is called for if the needs of the large majority of older persons adversely impacted by the epidemic is to be addressed.
http://141.211.200.59/pubs/FMPro?-db=items&-lay=web&-format=results.html&-max=30&series+code=rr&-SortField=pubyear&-SortOrder=descend&-SortField=Month+Number&-SortOrder=descend&-token=verb&-find

University of Washington. Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology 

Lundberg, Shelly and Elaina Rose.  "Child Gender and the Transition to Marriage."  No. 02-1.  October 2001.  29 pages.
Abstract:  We estimate the effect of a child’s gender on the mother’s probability of marriage or remarriage using data from the PSID Marital History and Childbirth and Adoption History Files.  We find that the birth of a son speeds the transition into marriage when the child is born nonmaritally. A competing risks analysis shows that this effect derives solely from the increased probability of marriage to a son’s father. We find no significant effect of child gender on the mother’s remarriage probabilities when children are born within a previous marriage.
http://csde.washington.edu/pubs/wps/

University of Wisconsin. Center for Demography and Ecology

Wu, Lawrence L.  "Event History Models for Life Course Analysis."  2001-17.  February 2002.  42 pages.
Abstract:  None available.  
http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/cde/cdewp/home.htm

Yale University. Economic Growth Center 

Guinnane, Timothy W., Carolyn Moehling, and Cormac Ó Gráda.    "Fertility in South Dublin a Century Ago: A First Look."  #838.  November 2001.  44 pages.
Abstract:  Ireland’s relatively late and feeble fertility transition remains poorly-understood. The leading explanations stress the role of Catholicism and a conservative social ethos. This paper reports the first results from a project that uses new samples from the 1911 census of Ireland to study fertility in Dublin and Belfast. Our larger project aims to use the extensive literature on the fertility transition elsewhere in Europe to refine and test leading hypotheses in their Irish context.  The present paper uses a sample from the Dublin suburb of Pembroke to take a first look at the questions, data, and methods. This sample is much larger than those used in previous studies of Irish fertility, and is the first from an urban area. We find considerable support for the role of religion, networks, and other factors stressed in the literature on the fertility transition, but the data also show a role for the social-class effects downplayed in recent discussions.
http://www.library.yale.edu/socsci/egcdis2.html

 

 

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