Costanzo, Joseph, Cynthia J. Davis, Caribert Irazi, Daniel M. Goodkind,
and Roberto R. Ramirez. "Evaluating Components of International
Migration: The Residual Foreign Born." January 2002. 50
pages.
Abstract: On March 1, 2001, the
U.S. Census Bureau issued the recommendation of the Executive Steering
Committee for A.C.E. Policy (ESCAP) that the Census 2000 Redistricting Data not
be adjusted based on the Accuracy
and Coverage Evaluation (A.C.E.). By mid-October 2001, the Census
Bureau had to recommend whether Census 2000 data should be adjusted for future
uses, such as the census long form data
products, post-censal population estimates, and demographic
survey controls. In order to inform that decision, the ESCAP requested that
further research be conducted.
Between March and September 2001, the Demographic Analysis-Population Estimates (DAPE) research project addressed the discrepancy between the demographic analysis data and the A.C.E. adjusted estimates of the population. Specifically, the research examined the historical levels of the components of population change to address the possibility that the 1990 Demographic Analysis understated the national population and assessed whether demographic analysis had not captured the full population growth between 1990 and 2000. Assumptions regarding the components of international migration (specifically, emigration, temporary migration, legal migration, and unauthorized migration) contain the largest uncertainty in the demographic analysis estimates. Therefore, evaluating the components of international migration was a critical activity in the DAPE project.
This report focuses on the evaluation of the U.S. Census Bureau’s estimated residual foreign-born population (including both unauthorized and quasi-legal migrants) in 1990 and 2000. The estimates shown here were calculated in conjunction with estimates of other components of international migration: legal permanent migration and legal temporary migration. These components of international migration, along with assumed deaths and emigrants, are subtracted from a total foreign-born population yielding a residual count. Most of this residual foreign-born population is assumed to be the unauthorized migrant population. However, included in this residual number are some quasi-legal migrants present in the U.S.
According to our calculations, the estimated residual foreign-born population in 1990 was 3,765,906 and 8,705,419 in 2000. In 1990, the residual foreign born were less likely to be male (48.4 percent) than in 2000 (54.2 percent). Of the residual foreign born, 26.8 percent were from Mexico in 1990 and 44.5 percent were from Mexico in 2000.
Future research will focus on decrementing the 1980 and 1990 unauthorized
populations for known legal
migrants, using final Census 2000 sample data, exploring alternative data
sources and alternative
assumptions and methods. Future research will support the production of annual
estimates of unauthorized migrants.
http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/population/www/techpap.html
Cassidy, Rachel and Lucinda Pearson. "Evaluating Components
of International Migration: Temporary (Legal) Migrants." No.
60. January 2002. 23 pages.
Abstract: On March 1, 2001, the U.S. Census
Bureau issued the recommendation of the Executive Steering Committee
for A.C.E. Policy (ESCAP) that the Census 2000 Redistricting Data not be
adjusted based on the Accuracy and Coverage
Evaluation (A.C.E.). By mid-October 2001, the Census Bureau
had to recommend whether Census 2000 data should be adjusted for future uses,
such as the census long form data products,
post-censal population estimates, and demographic survey controls.
In order to inform that decision, the ESCAP requested that further research be
conducted.
Between March and September 2001, the Demographic Analysis-Population Estimates (DAPE) research project addressed the discrepancy between the demographic analysis data and the A.C.E. adjusted estimates of the population. Specifically, the research examined the historical levels of the components of population change to address the possibility that the 1990 Demographic Analysis understated the national population and assessed whether demographic analysis had not captured the full population growth between 1990 and 2000. Assumptions regarding the components of international migration (specifically, emigration, temporary migration, legal migration, and unauthorized migration) contain the largest uncertainty in the demographic analysis estimates. Therefore, evaluating the components of international migration was a critical activity in the DAPE project.
This report focuses on the evaluation of the U.S. Census Bureau’s estimated stock of legal temporary migrants in 1990 and 2000. Specifically, the review process validated the estimates of temporary migrants in 1990 and created an intermediate estimate for 2000. To produce the estimate of net temporary migrants, the Census Bureau developed criteria, related to visa requirements, to identify people who were likely to be resident temporary migrants in the 1990 census. Because the preliminary data from Census 2000 were unavailable for several necessary variables for the algorithm (e.g., industry and income), data from the Census 2000 Supplementary Survey were used for the 2000 estimate.
Our evaluation resulted in a temporary migrant stock estimate of 487,453 in
1990 and 781,507 in 2000. For both dates,
temporary migrants included more men than women, were likely to be non-Hispanic,
and the largest numbers were between the ages of 18 and 29. Future research will
focus on an evaluation of the criteria used for the
algorithm, and an adaptation of the algorithm to
other surveys, such as the Current Population Survey and the American Community
Survey, to facilitate in the production of
annual estimates of temporary migrants.
http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/population/www/techpap.html
Deardorff, Kevin E.and Lisa M. Blumerman. "Evaluating
Components of International Migration: Estimates of the Foreign-Born
Population by Migrant Status in 2000." No. 58. December 2001.
Abstract: On March 1, 2001, the U.S. Census Bureau issued the
recommendation of the Executive Steering Committee for A.C.E. Policy (ESCAP)
that the Census 2000 Redistricting Data not be adjusted based on the Accuracy
and Coverage Evaluation (A.C.E.). By mid-October 2001, the Census Bureau had to
recommend whether Census 2000 data should be adjusted for future uses, such as
the census long form data products, post-censal population estimates, and
demographic survey controls. In order to inform that decision, the ESCAP
requested that further research be conducted.
Between March and September 2001, the Demographic Analysis-Population Estimates (DAPE) research project addressed the discrepancy between the demographic analysis data and the A.C.E. adjusted estimates of the population. Specifically, the research examined the historical levels of the components of population change to address the possibility that the 1990 Demographic Analysis understated the national population and assessed whether demographic analysis had not captured the full population growth between 1990 and 2000. Assumptions regarding the components of international migration (specifically, emigration, temporary migration, legal migration, and unauthorized migration) contain the largest uncertainty in the demographic analysis estimates. Therefore, evaluating the components of international migration was a critical activity in the DAPE project.
This report focuses on the evaluation of the U.S. Census Bureau's estimates
of the foreign-born population by migrant status in 2000. In particular, we
assess the assumptions used to estimate the various types of international
migrants (legal immigrants, temporary migrants, unauthorized migrants, and
emigrants) and the effect of alternative assumptions in estimating the size of
the foreign-born population. By reviewing alternative assumptions about the
types of international migrants, we assess the completeness of coverage of the
foreign-born population in Census 2000, and the reasonableness of the resulting
Demographic Analysis (DA) estimates.
http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/population/www/techpap.html
Bishai, David. "Does the Law of Diminishing Returns Apply
to Infant Mortaility Decline?" WP 01-03. September 2001.
16 pages.
Abstract:
Objective: This paper examines time series data on infant mortality from 21
countries to demonstrate an appropriate test of the hypothesis that percentage
reductions in infant mortality are larger when infant mortality is lower. Prior
research expounding this hypothesis has dubbed it "the Matthew
effect". Method: Time series for infant mortality can be modeled as X t = m
+ q1 X t-1 +e t where e t is identically and independently distributed. If q1=1
it is easily demonstrated that the time series has an asymptotic distribution
with infinite variance. The correct test to apply in this situation is the
Dickey-Fuller test which we use to test the statistical significance of q1 in a
regression analysis of Dlog IMR t = m + q1 log IMR t-1 +e t. Evidence that q1 is
significant and negative would support the claim that there is a Matthew Effect
in infant mortality. This paper uses time series data on IMR from 21 nations for
1870-1988. Several additional lagged values of Dlog IMR were appended using an
Akaike Indicator Criterion to select the preferred specification.
Transformations of IMR other than simple logarithms were explored.
Results: With the preferred specification, the Dickey-Fuller test rejected the
presence of any Matthew Effect in all but three countries. The rejection of a
Matthew Effect was robust to alternative specifications of the lag structure of
IMR and to various transformations of IMR other than logarithmic.
Conclusion: Based on 20th century data there is scarce evidence that percentage
reductions in infant mortality are generally smaller in higher mortality
countries. Large percentage reductions in infant mortality are possible for
countries at any stage in economic development and are likely to be reflective
of durable advances in human knowledge, social institutions, and physical
capital.
http://popctr.jhsph.edu/publications/wp/index.html
Hill, Kenneth. "Methods for Measuring Adult Mortaility in
Developing Countries: A Comparative Review." WP 01-02.
August 2001. 24 pages.
Abstract: No consensus has emerged on how to estimate adult mortality in
countries lacking complete vital registration of deaths and accurate periodic
censuses. This paper applies a range of methods to census, registration and
survey data for Guatemala for the period from 1981 to 1994. The findings are
less than conclusive because of marked errors in the census populations. Methods
using intercensal survival perform very poorly, giving rise to results that are
hard to interpret. Methods using the distribution of deaths by age and rates of
change of the population by age appear to work better, but still give rise to
substantially different results. Simulations suggest that a combination of two
methods appears to work well. In the Guatemala case, survival of mother appears
to over-estimate female adult mortality, whereas survival of siblings appears to
underestimate adult mortality. A new method for analyzing intercensal changes in
cohort proportions with surviving mother, presented in the paper, gives results
broadly consistent with estimates based on adjusted registered deaths.
http://popctr.jhsph.edu/publications/wp/index.html
Hill, Kenneth, George Bicego, and Mary Mahy. "Childhood
Mortality in Kenya: An Examination of Trends and Determinants in the Late
1980's to the mid 1990's." WP 01-01. August 2001. 16
pages.
Abstract: After Independence in the early 1960s, child mortality in Kenya
fell rapidly. Until around 1980, the under 5 mortality rate (U5MR), the
probability of dying by age 5, fell at an annual rate of about 4 percent per
annum. This rate of decline slowed in the early 1980s, to about 2 per cent per
annum. Recent data from the 1998 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey showed
that, far from declining, the U5MR increased by as much as 25 percent from the
late 1980s to the mid 1990s. This adverse trend coincided with a number of other
adverse trends: stagnation in growth of per capita income, declining levels of
immunization, falling school enrolment, and the emergence of an HIV/AIDS
epidemic. On a more positive note, fertility fell by about 30 percent from the
mid 1980s to the mid 1990s. Controversy surrounds the factors responsible for
the increase in child mortality in the 1990s, and the objective of this paper is
to clarify the situation. Data from the 1993 and 1998 DHSs have been merged into
a single data set, and multivariate analysis used to examine the factors
associated with mortality risks in childhood. Dummy variables were used to
represent different three-year time periods, from 1984-86 to 1996-98.
Socioeconomic controls, including mother¹s education, an indicator of household
wealth, urban/rural residence, and indicators of health service utilization,
plus controls for reproductive dynamics such as age of mother at the birth,
birth order, sex and preceding birth interval, were developed. In addition, an
indicator of the HIV epidemic, the prevalence of HIV in the district of birth at
the time of each child¹s birth, was developed. With no controls, the models
confirmed an increase in mortality of about 25 percent. Including socioeconomic
and biodemographic controls tended to strengthen the upward trend in mortality;
in other words, had there been no changes in these factors, child mortality
would have been expected to decline. Introducing controls for health variables
immunization, pregnancy and delivery care, prevalence of childhood diseases
and maternal and child malnutrition also did not alter the underlying trends
substantially. Thus rising child mortality could not be explained by
socioeconomic, biodemographic or health status factors. Including the prevalence
of HIV in the models, however, changed the underlying trends fundamentally, from
sharp increase to monotonic decline. Although models of this sort cannot
demonstrate causation, only association, the HIV epidemic appears to be the most
probable cause of the recent increases in child mortality in Kenya. Of the
health variables, the only one found to be significantly protective was
immunization coverage.
http://popctr.jhsph.edu/publications/wp/index.html
Christopher, Karen. "Caregiving, Welfare States and
Mothers' Poverty." No. 287. November 2001. 38
pages.
Abstract: I begin with a review of the literature that considers the
gendered assumptions upon which many welfare states base their social policies.
Next I present my research questions, discuss data and methods, and present
analyses of how welfare states affect the poverty rates of mothers, single
mothers, and other citizens in nine Western nations (Australia, Canada, Finland,
France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, UK, and US). The analyses show the
extent to which social assistance programs reduce mothers' and single mothers'
poverty rates-in an absolute sense, and also how welfare states reduce their
poverty rates relative to the poverty rates of other roups (such as female
non-mothers or non-single mothers). I find that the welfare states most
representative of the "male breadwinner" model (Germany and the
Netherlands) are problematic not only with their gendered assumptions about
women's carework; compared to other countries, they also do less to reduce
mothers' poverty rates relative to those of female non-mothers and men. In other
words, in Germany and the Netherlands, many social policies assume that mothers
are primary caregivers, but their social assistance programs fail to lower
mothers' poverty rates relative to those of other citizens. I conclude with the
implications of these findings for mothers' economic dependence on male
partners. First, I present a brief discussion of the theoretical literature on
the gendered nature of welfare states.
http://lisweb.ceps.lu/publications/wpapersentire.htm
Christopher, Karen. "Welfare State
Regimes and Mother's Poverty." No. 286. November 2001. 45
pages.
Abstract: In this paper I assess the extent to which welfare states reduce
poverty among single mothers and all mothers. I focus on two different
typologies of welfare states. One identifies the gendered assumptions underlying
social policies, while the other focuses
on how welfare states and labor markets affect class inequality. Using data from
the Luxembourg Income Study, I show how tax and transfer systems and employment
supports in nine Western nations affect the poverty rates of single mothers and
all mothers vis-à-vis other groups. I find that particularly in the
Scandinavian nations, and to a lesser extent in France, the Netherlands and
U.K., the tax and transfer system, employment supports, or a combination of the
two allow most single mothers to form autonomous households that escape poverty.
I conclude by discussing how my findings speak to the different typologies of
welfare state regimes.
http://lisweb.ceps.lu/publications/wpapersentire.htm
Christopher, Karen. "Single Motherhood, Employment, or
Social Assistance: Why are U.S. Women Poorer than Women in Other Affluent
Nations?" No. 285. November 2001. 29 pages.
Abstract: U.S. women have higher poverty rates than women in other
affluent nations. In this paper I attempt to explain this disparity by examining
the effect of single motherhood, employment, and social assistance on women's
poverty. With cross-national comparisons of quantitative data, I find that the
relatively high rate of single motherhood among U.S. women is not a main cause
of their high poverty rates. Compared to their counterparts in other Western
nations, U.S. women, mothers and single mothers are among the most likely to
earn poverty wages. In addition, U.S. social assistance programs are the least
effective in reducing poverty. I conclude with the policy implications of my
findings, focusing on strategies to ameliorate the high poverty rates of U.S.
women and mothers.
http://lisweb.ceps.lu/publications/wpapersentire.htm
Beramendi, Alvarez Pablo. "The Politics of Income
Inequality in the OECD: The Role of Second Order Effects." No.
284. September 2001. 36 pages.
Abstract: None Available
http://lisweb.ceps.lu/publications/wpapersentire.htm
Fernández, Raquel, Nezih Guner, and John Knowles. "Love
and Money : a Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of Household Sorting and
Inequality." No. 283. September 2001. 54 pages.
Abstract: This paper examines the interactions between household matching,
inequality, and per capita income. We develop a model in which agents decide
whether to become skilled or unskilled, form households, consume and have
children. We show that the equilibrium sorting of spouses by skill type (their
correlation in education) is increasing as a function of the skill premium. In
the absence of perfect capital markets, the economy can converge to dierent
steady states, depending upon initial conditions. The degree of marital sorting,
wage inequality, and fertility dierentials are positively correlated across
steady states and negatively correlated with per capita income. We use household
surveys from 34 countries to construct several measures of the skill premium and
of the degree of correlation of spouses' education (marital sorting). For all
our measures, we find a positive and significant relationship between the two
variables.
http://lisweb.ceps.lu/publications/wpapersentire.htm
Hakovirta, Mia. "The Income Sources of Single Parents: a
Comparative Analysis." No. 282. November 2001. 35
pages.
Abstract: The aim of this article is to examine the different income
sources of single parents using the method of the income packages. The concept
of income package highlights the importance of both the source and the level of
income of single parent families in different welfare states. These potential
sources of income are central when analysing the nature of support offered by
the welfare state to single parents. This article attempts to give answer to the
following questions: 1. Is it the case that the degree to which single parents
participate in paid employment influences their income packages? In those
countries where paid employment is common among single parents, is the main
component of their income packages income from work? In contrast, in those
countries where paid employment is rare among single parents, are incomes mainly
derived from social transfers? 2. How has the income sources of single parents
changed during the economic downturn in some countries during the 1990s? Has the
dependency on state benefits increased and the amount of income from employment
decreased as a result of a weakened labour market position among single parents?
The study focuses on the turn of the decade (namely 1983-86 and 1991-95) when
social policy was reformed in many countries. The countries selected for this
study are Australia, Britain, the US, the Netherlands, Germany, Norway, Finland
and Denmark. The article starts with an overview of the different work
requirements of single parents across countries. This serves as a platform for
empirical analysis on income packages. Then the changes in labour market
participation rates of single parents are studied. This is followed by a study
of the income packages and income levels of single parents. The article
concludes with a discussion of the main research findings.
http://lisweb.ceps.lu/publications/wpapersentire.htm
Ortega, J.A.; Kohler, H.P. "Measuring
Low Fertility: Rethinking Demographic Methods." WP-2002-001.
January 2002. 35 pages.
Abstract: None available.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm
Billari, F.C. and C. Wilson. "Convergence towards
diversity? Cohort dynamics in the transition to adulthood in contemporary
Western Europe." 2001-39. December 2001. 30 pages.
Abstract: This paper addresses the transition to adulthood in developed
countries. It reviews the main theories that have been employed in recent years
to explain trends in such variables as age ages at leaving home, union
formation, first marriage and first birth. The paper then examines the median
ages at which women in nine European countries experienced these events and the
inter-quartile range within each cohort. The results do not provide unequivocal
support for any of the main theories. In conclusion we offer some speculative
remarks on what form an alternative theory might take.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm
Aassve, A., F.C. Billari, S. Mazzuco, and F. Ongaro.
"Leaving Home Ain't Easy. A comparative longitudinal analysis of ECHP
data.." 2001-38. December 2001. 33 pages.
Abstract: We use three waves of the European Community Household Panel (ECHP)
to analyse the impact of employment, earnings, household income, and welfare on
young adults’ decision to leave the parental home. In particular we
investigate the importance of these income sources in different welfare
settings. We use a simultaneous equation approach to control for unobserved
heterogeneity. This is important given that the ECHP does not include
retrospective information on demographic events. We find employment and income
to be very important factors in the decisions of young adults in the Southern
European Welfare State to leave home. For the Continental European Welfare state
the results are more mixed. Employment and income are still important factors,
but the effects are less clear and there are significant variations. In the
Scandinavian Social Democratic Welfare State, the effect of employment and
income appears negligible. The effect is also modest in the UK (the Liberal
Market State), a finding we attribute to the educational system.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm
Munoz, Baizan P., F. Michielin, and F. C. Billari.
"Political Economy and Life Course Patterns: The Heterogeneity of
Occupational, Family and Abstract: Household Trajectories of Young
Spaniards." 2001-37. December 2001. 56 pages.
Abstract: We explore the strong linkages between macro changes and the
dynamics of educational, occupational, family, and residential careers of young
Spanish adults born between 1945 and 1974. We review theory and evidence on
macro factors: changes in the welfare system, centrality of the family as a
service provider, and the changing role of women. We outline some hypotheses of
how life course trajectories, and their heterogeneity, change across cohorts. We
build data on sequences of states using FFS. In our analysis, we find an
increase in the discontinuity of careers and of the heterogeneity among cohort
members, especially for employment. Women's careers are becoming more similar to
those of men. Family and household formation is postponed, with a limited spread
of post-nuclear family forms.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm
Baizan Munoz, P., A. Aassave, and F.C. Billari. "Cohabitation,
marriage, first birth: The interrrelationship of family formation events
in Spain." 2001-36. November 2001. 38 pages.
Abstract: In this paper we investigate (1) the mutual causal relationship
between first union formation and first childbirth, and (2) the existence of
constant common determinants of these two events. It is argued that (unmeasured)
common factors reflect differentials among the population in value orientations
and in norms about the sequencing of events. We apply event history techniques
to retrospective survey data for Spain, allowing for the correlation between
unobserved heterogeneity components belonging to each process. Our findings
confirm the strong interrelationship between union formation and first birth.
After controlling for these common factors, we find that the risk of conception
increases immediately at marriage, and it continues to be high during the
following four years. Entry into cohabitation produces much smaller increases in
the relative risk. The effect of the conception of the first child on union
formation is especially strong during pregnancy, but declines sharply after
delivery.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm
Boersch-Supan, Axel. "Labor Market Effects of Population
Aging." #8640. December 2001. 40 pages.
Abstract: This paper analyzes effects of population aging on the labor
market and determines their broad implications for public policy. It takes
Germany as an example, but it equally applies to the other large economies in
Continental Europe. The paper argues that, alongside the amply discussed,
demographically-determined increase in the contribution and tax burden which is
responsible for the ever widening gap between gross and disposable earnings, two
other important areas of policy deserve greater attention. First, it is unlikely
that the decline in the relative size of the economically active population will
be offset by higher capital intensity. Labor productivity will need to increase
over and above this mechanism in order to compensate for the impact of
population aging on domestic production. Hence, we will need more education and
training to speed up human capital formation. Second, the shift in the age
structure will also change the structure of demand for goods. This, in turn,
will have large effects on the pattern of employment across different sectors of
the economy and will require a substantial increase in labor mobility in order
to accommodate these structural changes.
http://www.nber.org/new.html
Lichtenberg, Frank R. "The Effect of New Drigs on
Mortaility from Rare Diseases and HIV." #8677. December
2001. 27 pages.
Abstract: I investigate the effect of large increases in the number of
drugs available to treat rare diseases and HIV on mortality associated with
them. Mortality from both diseases declined dramatically following increases in
drug approvals. Before the Orphan Drug Act went into effect (between 1979 and
1984), mortality from rare diseases grew at the same rate as mortality from
other diseases. In contrast, during the next five years, mortality from rare
diseases grew more slowly than mortality from other diseases. I estimate that
one additional orphan drug approval in year t prevents 211 deaths in year t+1
and ultimately prevents 499 deaths, and that about 108 thousand deaths from rare
diseases will ultimately be prevented by all of the 216 orphan drugs tha t have
been approved since 1983. Deaths are more closely related to the number of
orphan product designations (which include experimental drugs) than they are to
the number of approvals. Consistent with previous patient- level studies of HIV,
I find that new drugs played a key role in the post-1995 decline in HIV
mortality. I estimate that one additional HIV drug approval in year t prevents
5986 HIV deaths in year t+1 and ultimately prevents 33,819 HIV deaths. HIV drug
approvals have reduced mortality both directly and indirectly (via increased
drug consumption). HIV mortality depends on both the quality and the quantity of
medications consumed, and new drug approvals have a sizeable impact on drug
consumption: one additional HIV drug approval in year t results in 1.2 million
additional HIV drug units consumed in year t+1 and ultimately result in 3.6
million additional HIV drug units.
http://www.nber.org/new.html
Bloom, David E. David Canning and Jaypee Sevilla.
"Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition." #8685.
December 2001. 87 pages.
Abstract: For decades, economists and social thinkers have debated the
influence of population change on economic growth. Three alternative positions
define this debate: that population growth restricts, promotes, or is
independent of economic growth. Proponents of each explanation can find evidence
to support their cases. All of these explanations, however, focus on population
size and growth. In recent years, however, the debate has under-emphasized a
critical issue, the age structure of the population (that is, the way in which
the population is distributed across different age groups), which can change
dramatically as the population grows. Because people's economic behavior varies
at different stages of life, changes in a country's age structure can have
significant effects on its economic performance. Nations with a high proportion
of children are likely to devote a high proportion of resources to their care,
which tends to depress the pace of economic growth. By contrast, if most of a
nation's population falls within the working ages, the added productivity of
this group can produce a 'demographic dividend' of economic growth, assuming
that policies to take advantage of this are in place. In fact, the combined
effect of this large working-age population and health, family, labor,
financial, and human capital policies can create virtuous cycles of wealth
creation. And if a large proportion of a nation's population consists of the
elderly, the effects can be similar to those of a very young population. A large
share of resources is needed by a relatively less productive segment of the
population, which likewise can inhibit economic growth. After tracing the
history of theories of the effects of population growth, this report reviews
evidence on the relevance of changes in age structure for economic growth. It
also examines the relationship between population change and economic
development in particular regions of the world: East Asia; Japan; OECD, North
America and Western Europe; South-central and Southeast Asia; Latin America;
Middle East and North Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; and Eastern Europe and the
former Soviet Union. Finally, it discusses the key policy variables that,
combined with reduced fertility and increases in the working-age population,
have contributed to economic growth in some areas of the developing world.
http://www.nber.org/new.html
Bongaarts, John. "The end of the fertility transition in
the developed world." No. 152. 36 pages.
Abstract: By the late 1990s fertility in the developed world had declined
to 1.6 births per woman, a level substantially lower than projected in the
1980s. This study examines recent trends and patterns in fertility in the
developed world with particular emphasis on the effects and implications of
changes in the timing of childbearing. The main objective is to
demonstrate that while fertility in these countries is indeed low, women's
childbearing levels are not as low as period measures such as the total
fertility rate suggest. To obtain a full understanding of the various
dimensions of fertility change, several indicators are examined, including
period and cohort fertility by birth order and childbearing preferences.
An analysis of these indicators demonstrates that period fertility measures in
many developed countries are temporarily depressed by a rise in the mean age at
childbearing. The distortion of the TFR is as great as 0.4 birth per woman
in Italy and Spain. These effects have been present in many developed
countries since the 1970s and could continue for years into the future.
But tempo effects are temporary in nature and once the postponement of
childbearing ends—as it eventually must—the corresponding
fertility-depressing effect stops, thus putting upward pressure on period
fertility. Countries with very low fertility and substantial tempo effects
may well experience modest rises in fertility in the near future if the timing
of childbearing stabilizes. Even if this happens, however, it seems highly
unlikely that fertility will rebound to the replacement level.
http://www.popcouncil.org/publications/wp/prd/rdwplist.html
Mensch, Barbara S., Paul C. Hewett, and Annabel Erulkar.
"The reporting of sensitive behavior among adolescents: A methodological
experiment in Kenya." No. 151. 38 pages.
Abstract: This paper assesses whether audio computer-assisted
self-interviewing (audio-CASI), a technique designed in the United States to
collect data on sensitive behaviors, is a feasible method of survey data
collection in a developing-country setting and whether it produces more valid
reporting of sexual activity and related behaviors than traditional survey
methods. The analysis is based on interviews with nearly 4,400 unmarried
adolescents aged 15-21 in Nyeri, a rural district of Kenya that was selected
because previous research had indicated a wide discrepancy in the reporting of
premarital sexual behavior between boys and girls. The study was based on
a quasi-experimental design in which respondents were randomly allocated to one
of three interviewing modes—faced-to-face interviews, paper and pencil
self-administered interviews, and audio-CASI—with the presupposition that
increased privacy would elicit more reliable responses. The interview
context was found to have a substantial effect on responses to sensitive
questions about sexual and other risky behaviors among young people.
Results indicate substantial and significant differences in reported rates of
premarital sex across interview modes. For boys, who we suspect exaggerate
sexual experience in face-to-face interviews, the effect is in the expected
direction, with a 23 percent drop in reported sexual activity in the audio-CASI
mode. For girls, who we speculate underreport sexual activity when
interviewed face-to-face, there is also a large difference by mode, but the
effect is not in the hypothesized direction, with respondents reporting twice as
much sexual activity in the interviewer mode as in the audio-CASI mode.
While the audio-CASI technology performed well, with minimal mechanical
problems, and while respondents were able to complete the survey with limited
training, some members of the community reacted adversely to the survey,
especially to the use of the computer. We consider whether this may have
had an effect on the response patterns of adolescents.
http://www.popcouncil.org/publications/wp/prd/rdwplist.html
Lloyd, Cynthia B., Sahar El Tawila, Wesley H. Clark, and Barbara S. Mensch..
"Determinants of educational attainment among adolescents in Egypt: Does
school quality make a difference?" No. 150. 39 pages.
Abstract: The paper explores empirically the relationship
between school quality in Egyptian preparatory (middle) schools and the
likelihood of school dropout either during preparatory school or before the
completion of secondary school. Despite strong empirical evidence for the
many positive social and economic returns associated with more years of
schooling, there has been little research exploring how the quality of
particular schools might influence grade levels attained. The authors
address this research gap using detailed data on Egyptian preparatory schools
(grades 6—8, the last three years of the eight years of basic schooling) that
are linked with a national survey of Egyptian adolescents. The results
confirm that school quality is associated with grade levels attained. For
both boys and girls, the elements of school quality that matter include
traditional elements such as time available for learning and material resources,
including teacher quality, as well as some aspects of school and classroom
dynamics, in particular treatment by teachers and teacher attitudes. A
comparison of these results with a similarly designed study in Kenya by some of
the same authors suggests that the specific features of school quality that
matter for educational outcomes are context specific and differ between boys and
girls. Gender roles in society, as well as school quality and teacher
attitudes about the academic capabilities of adolescent boys and girls, shape
the ways in which schools influence boys and girls in a particular setting.
At the same time as schools empower young people with knowledge and skills, they
also reflect and reinforce societal norms, including norms about gender roles.
http://www.popcouncil.org/publications/wp/prd/rdwplist.html
Ravanera, Zenaida R. and Fernando Rajulton. "Integration at
Late Life: Inclusion, Participation, and Belonging among the Elderly."
01-16. December 2001. 21 pages.
Abstract: None available.
http://www.ssc.uwo.ca/sociology/popstudies/dp/dp01-16.pdf
De Vos, Susan, Patricio Solís, and Verónica Montes de Oca. "Receipt
of Instrumental Assistance and Extended Family Residence Among Elders in Mexico."
2001-18. October 200. 48 pages.
Abstract: This paper focuses on informal
instrumental help received by a nationally-representative sample
of elderly Mexican men age 60 and over gathered in 1994. About half the men
received in-kind or domestic assistance in
the last month, while about two-fifths received financial assistance,
and a little more than a quarter received physical assistance. These figures
must be interpreted alongside the facts that
almost half of the men were still working, over half (57%) had no
discernable health limitation and roughly a quarter were still living in simple
family households with one or more unmarried
children.
The common assumption that living arrangements helps indicate assistance seems valid. When receipt of help was regressed on living arrangements and a number of other socioeconomic characteristics, living arrangements stayed an important predictor. Other factors stayed important too however. This suggests that help is a multidimensional concept that includes, but is not limited to coresidence. Coresidence is neither a sufficient nor even a necessary condition.
In
fact, many elders who received help, received some of that help from non-coresiding
relatives. Remittances were important, but we found
that help from non-coresiding relatives or friends
included in-kind, domestic and physical assistance as well as financial
assistance. Perhaps it is time to dust
off notions of a modified extended family, and in turn modify
them, to help
us understand the situation in Mexico. Questions about geographic distance, in
addition to coresidence, could be helpful.
http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/cde/cdewp/home.htm
Marks, Nadine F., James David Lambert, and Hey Jung Jun. "The
Effects of Transitions in Filial Caregiving on Mental and Physical Health: A
Prospective U.S. National Study." 2001-16. November 2001.
40 pages.
Abstract:
Purpose: This study examined the effects of transitioning into the role
of filial caregiver, continuation in filial caregiver role over a period of at
least five years, and exiting the role of filial caregiving due to parental
death on mental and physical health. Further, it evaluated the moderation of
caregiving effects by gender, relationship quality, filial obligation,
race-ethnicity, education, income, employment status, marital status, and
parental status.
Design and Methods: Data from adults aged 25-65 in 1987-88 and followed up longitudinally in 1992-94 (National Survey of Families and Households) was analyzed (N=1,476). Outcomes included depression, hostility, global happiness, self-esteem, personal mastery, psychological wellness, and self-assessed global health. Multivariate regression models were estimated.
Results: Results suggested that the transition to filial caregiving at a relatively high level of involvement was associated with more depression for men. Continuous care was associated with more hostility, a greater decline in happiness, and a greater decline in self-assessed global health among men. Adult children ending parent care due to death reported mental and physical health similar to noncaregiving adult children. Gender differences suggested men may experience more of mental and physical health risk due to caregiving than women. Relationship quality, filial obligation, social status characteristics, and other role commitments influence the effects of entering into filial caregiving, often in different ways for men and women.
Discussion: Filial care in the U.S. population is not consistently
associated with compromised mental and physical health. Gender, relationship
quality, filial attitudes, and multiple social context factors moderate the
effects of entering into filial care and should be examined further in future
research.
http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/cde/cdewp/home.htm
Compiled by: Kari Swanson - Library Assistant
Center for Demography and Ecology Information Services
Rm. 4471 Social Science Building
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706-1393 USA
Email: kswanson@ssc.wisc.edu