Booth, Heather, John Maindonald and Len Smith . "Age-time Interactions in Mortality Projection: Applying Lee-Carter to
Australia." WP no. 85. August 2001. 30 pages.
Abstract:
Application of the Lee-Carter method to Australia data shows that model
assumptions are not always met because of age-time interactions. The
Lee-Carter method is adapt4ed to take account of departures from linearity in
the dominant time component and the failure to satisfy the assumption of an invariant
age component. The most significant adaptation is a methodology for
determining the 'optimum' fitting period in order to address non-linearity in
the time component. In the Australian case, this has the additional effect
that the assumption of an invariant age component is better met.
Additional technical adaptations are also made. The model is expanded to
take account of age-time interactions by incorporating the second and higher terms,
but these are not easily incorporated into forecasts. The adapted
methodology produces forecasts of life expectancy that are higher than official
projections.
http://demography.anu.edu.au/workingpapers.shtml
O'Neill, Grace E. and Martin O'Connell. "State Estimates of Child Care Establishments: 1977 -
1997." August 2001. #55.
Abstract:
The demand for information on the availability of child care centers and providers has become increasingly more important in the past few decades due to the
steady increase of women with young children entering the labor force in the United States. It has also become vital to understand such transitions in child care
on the state level since both policy and funding issues are most clearly defined and financed at the subnational level.
Most Census Bureau surveys provide little state-wide information for two reasons: the sample sizes are not robust enough to provide state level information and
Census surveys such as the Survey of Income and Program Participation are household-based population surveys which provide information about people
using child care but not about the characteristics of child care centers as business establishments--for example, if they are incorporated, payroll information and
the numbers of establishments per children in each state.
This poster session utilizes newly released information from the 1997 Census of Service Industries, which presents data on all state child care establishments
that have filed Federal Income tax forms. These data are for three main types of establishments including: (1) nonemployer business (e.g., individual
proprietorship); (2) establishments with an employee payroll that pay income taxes (e.g., a for profit child care center); and (3) establishments with an employee payroll that are
tax-exempt (e.g., a non-profit based center). Nonemployer statistics were first collected in the 1987 round of censuses. Note, the primary focus
of these establishments is on care of children under the age of five where medical or delinquency correction is not a major component. They do not include
baby sitting services provided in the child's home by housekeepers or Head Start programs.
http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/population/www/techpap.html
Olson, Janice A. "Social Security Benefit Reporting in the SIPP and in Social Security Administration Records."
Working Paper 235. June 2001. 38 pages.
Abstract: None available.
http://www.sipp.census.gov/sipp/workpapr.htm
Spielauer, Martin. "Microsimulation Modeling of Population, Economic Growth, and Social Security
Systems." IR-01-026. July 2001. 35 pages.
Abstract:
This paper is a first step in trying to develop a modeling and simulation
framework that allows to incorporate the strengths
of microsimulation in economic growth
modeling in the context of demographic change. This is mainly done by restating
and programming an existing neoclassical macroeconomic growth model in terms
of microsimulation, which allows to explore and demonstrate some of the features
microsimulation techniques can possibly
"add" to this kind of modeling. The starting point
of the analysis is the IIASA "Social Security Forecasting and Simulation
Model", developed by the IIASA Social
Security Reform (SSR) Project as described in MacKellar
et al. (2000). This model was developed to study the influence of pension
systems on the economy mainly by investigating
long-run capital accumulation and economic
growth as functions of the evolving age distribution of the population and the
nature of pension schemes. Differently to most
economic growth models, the IIASA macro-model
explicitly introduces "realistic demography" by disaggregating the
household sector (and all model outputs) by age
cohorts. This kind of economic modeling is
incorporated in a dynamic microsimulation framework by further disaggregation
of the cohorts to the individual micro-level. Allowing for heterogeneous individual
agents, economic and demographic behavior can be modeled taking into account
a wide set of individual and household characteristics. As part of this research
a "microSSR " software is
developed, both as a tool for the testing of different behavioral theories
and as a projection and forecasting tool. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/docs/Admin/PUB/Catalog/PUB_SUBJECT_Population_Dynamics.html
Aassve, Arnstein and Gereltuya Altankhuyag. " Changing pattern of fertility behaviour in a time of social and economic change: Evidence from Mongolia."
WP 2001-023. August 2001.
26 pages.
Abstract:
In 1989, after a long period of socialist rule,
Mongolia initiated a democratisation process
of its political system together with a transition towards a market economy.
This paper examines how changes in socio-economic
conditions in Mongolia have affected
fertility patterns in recent times. It also provides an outline of changes that
have taken place in terms of pro-natalist policies.
The study is based on data from the Reproductive
Health Survey of Mongolia (RHSM) conducted in 1998. In terms of economic
activity we find an inverse, although weak, relationship for older cohorts.
This is in strong contrast to the young cohort, for
which the economic downturn has had a
strongly depressing effect on fertility. We also find important effects of micro
level variables, including education and housing.
Our findings suggest that the fertility
decline observed for the older cohorts are very much part of the first demographic
transition, in which the collapse of pro-natalist policies has been influential.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/PapersPres.htm#Work
Andersson, Gunnar and Dimiter Philipov. "Life-table representations of family dynamics in 16 FFS
countries." WP 2001-024 August 2001. 135 pages.
Abstract:
In this paper, we apply a
system of description of family-demographic behavior
to data derived from a number of Fertility and Family Surveys (FFS) conducted
in Europe – and
to corresponding survey data from the USA. We use life-table techniques
in order to describe the experiences of men, women, and children in processes
related to family formation and family dissolution during the late 1980s -early
1990s. Our presentation amounts to a large number
of cross-country comparisons of the
demographic behavior in Eastern and Western Europe with the US used
as a contrast. Our system is described in more detail in Andersson and Philipov
(2001) and here we apply it to data from Sweden,
Norway, Finland, France, USA, Austria,
Germany (East and West Germany separately), Flanders, Italy, Spain, Czech
Republic, Hungary, Slovenia, Latvia, Lithuania, and
Poland.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/PapersPres.htm#Work
Billari, Francesco C. and Riccardo Borgoni. "Spatial profiles in the analysis of event histories: An
application to first sexual intercourse in Italy."
WP 2001-025.
August 2001. 29 pages.
Abstract:
The aim of this paper is mainly methodological. We use individual-level
retrospective data from the Italian Fertility and Family survey, with the
information provided by respondents on the municipality of main residence during
the first 15 years. We link individual-level data with geographical
characteristics of the community. Firstly, we use non-parametric methods,
specifically a bi-dimensional LOESS (Logically weighted regression) to build
smoothed maps of transition to first sexual intercourse. Secondly, we use
a discrete-time multilevel event-history model (with logit specification),
allowing for the presence of unobserved heterogeneity at the municipality
level. We use latitude and longitude, together with dimension of the
municipality as aggregate-level explanatory variables in the model. We can
thus build spatial profiles as well as a map using predicted values for the
log-odd-ratio and study cohort dynamics too. Our results confirm that
Italy is a heterogeneous country; in particular, on age at first sexual
intercourse, women are more influenced by their context than men.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/PapersPres.htm#Work
Voland, Eckart and Jan Beise. "Opposite effects of maternal and paternal grandmothers
on infant survival in historical Krummhörn." WP 2001-026. August 2001.
27 pages.
Abstract:
On the basis of the church register
entries from the Krummhörn (Ostfriesland, Germany,
1720-1874) we investigated whether the existence or non-existence of grandmothers
had an impact on the reproductive success of a given family. We found that
fertility (measured by intervals between births)
was not influenced by the grandmothers. However,
maternal grandmothers tended to reduce infant mortality, when the children were
between 6 and 12 months of age. During these six
months the relative risk to die was approximately
1,8 times as high when the maternal grandmother was not existent in comparison
to when she was still alive. On the other hand, the existence of paternal
grandmothers approximately doubled the relative
risk of infant mortality during the first month
of life. We interpret this as the result of a tense relationship between
mothers-in-law and daughters-in-law.
Accordingly, Krummhörn grandmothers could be helping and lethal at the
same time. If this result were able to be generalized beyond the Krummhörn
population, the hypothesis, according to
which the evolution of the postgenerative lifespan could be explained
by the impact of grandmotherly kin-effects, will have to be stated more
precisely, because the costs of the social
stress in the male descendency would have to be substracted from
the benefits of helping in the female descendency. At any rate, the Krummhörn
situation does not offer a good model for
the grandmother who provides unconditional assistance, the positive
impact of which could explain the evolutionary extension of the human life span.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/PapersPres.htm#Work
Konietzka, Dirk and Michaela Kreyenfeld. "Non-Marital Births in East Germany after Unification."
WP 2001-027. August 2001. 37 pages.
Abstract:
In comparison to other European
countries, West Germany displays relatively low rates of
non-marital childbearing. Since the 1960, there has been a postponement of first
birth, an increase in the age at first marriage and
an increase in childlessness. Nevertheless,
childbearing and marriage remained strongly coupled. In the former East Germany,
on the other hand, non-marital childbearing was relatively high compared to
other European countries and particularly compared
to West Germany. In 1989, the ratio of
non-marital births had reached 33 percent. Overwhelmingly, researchers blamed
GDR policies for high non-marital birth rates.
However, after the breakdown of the GDR
regime, the high East German non-marital birth rates did not rebound to West
German levels but they sky-rocked, reaching 50
percent in 1999. Using data from the German
micro-census of the year 1997, we investigate the hypothesis that high
non-marital births reflect a high labor
market orientation among East German women with children.
Our empirical results reveal two different patterns in East and West Germany.
While in the West a high labor market orientation
is indeed related to lower marriage risks,
we find the reversed pattern in East Germany. East German women with a college
degree and/ or women who have a relatively higher
educational attainment than their male
partners are more likely to get married when they have children.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/PapersPres.htm#Work
Andersson, Gunnar. "Children’s experience of family disruption and family
formation: evidence from 16 FFS countries." WP 2001-028.
September 2001. 23 pages.
Abstract:
In this paper, we present a number of descriptive measures on children’s
experiences of family disruption and family
formation. We use data from the Fertility and
Family Surveys of 15 European countries and corresponding data from the USA
in order to find out what kind of family
circumstances children are born into and which
experiences they subsequently have of various family-transformation events of
their mothers. Our presentation reveals some
similarities but also striking differences in
the family-demographic experience of children in different countries. USA stands
out as one extreme case with its very high fraction
of children born to a lone mother, with a
higher probability for children to experience a union disruption of their
parents than anywhere else, and with many
children having the experience of living in a stepfamily.
Italy stands out at the other end of the scale. Practically all children are
here born to a married mother and very few of them
experience a dissolution of their parents’
union before they turn 15.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/PapersPres.htm#Work
Walke, Rainer. "Twins or two single children: the influence of the
multiplicity of the first birth on the divorce risk of Swedish women."
WP 2001-029. September 2001. 9 pages.
Abstract:
Based on Swedish register data, we compared the influence of a twin birth on the
divorce risk with the influence of the
sequential birth of two single children. The divorce risk for a woman with a
very young child was lower than the risk for
women without children or women with children older than 3.5 years.
This behaviour was essentially independent of the number of children and whether
or not the woman gave birth to twins. The
effect of parity was much smaller than the effect of child age. The divorce
risks for mothers of twins appeared to be between that of a mother with one
child and a mother of two children.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/PapersPres.htm#Work
Zelmer, Jennifer. "Linear Public Goods Experiments: A Meta-Analysis."
R.R. No. 361. June 2001. 38 pages.
Abstract:
The objective of this paper is to use meta-analysis techniques to assess the impact of various factors on the extent of cooperation in standard linear public
goods experiments using the voluntary contributions mechanism. Potentially relevant experiments were identified through searches of EconLit, the Internet
Documents in Economics Access Service (IDEAS), and a survey article. A total of 349 potentially relevant studies were identified. Of these, 28 (representing
a total of 711 groups of participants) met the inclusion criteria. Data were abstracted from these studies using a standardized protocol. Results were analyzed
using weighted ordinary least squares. Average group efficiency was the dependent variable.
The major results are that:
(A number of other factors
were not identified as significant.) The meta-analysis results parallel several key findings from previous literature reviews. In
addition, they offer parameter estimates and an analysis of significance based on the totality of the available research evidence. More consistent reporting of the
results of experiments would greatly improve the ability to conduct this type of research.
http://socserv.socsci.mcmaster.ca/~qsep/title01.htm
Kobayashi, Karen M., Anne Martin-Matthews, Carolyn J. Rosenthal and
Sarah Matthews. "The Timing and Duration of Women's Life Course Events: A Study of Mothers with at Least Two Children."
R.R. No. 362. June 2001. 30 pages.
Abstract:
This study examines the incidence and duration of women's life course events, specifically childbearing, by generational age structure within the family, birth
cohort, educational status, and place of birth. Data from the 1995 General Social Survey (GSS) of Canada is used to estimate the incidence and
socio-demographic correlates of age-structured families - age-condensed, normative, and age-gapped according to the mother's age at the birth of her first
child.
The results indicate that less than 10% of women with at least two children (N = 1,800) experience entrance into motherhood as a late life course event (e.g.,
at 30 years of age or older) as opposed to an early or "on-time" transition. Further, the mean birth interval is longer and family size is larger for age-condensed
mothers versus normative and age-gapped mothers. Cohort differences regarding the incidence and duration of family life course events are also notable: older
cohorts of women (1915-1930 and 1931-1946) have longer birth intervals and larger families than do women in younger cohorts (1946-1960 and
1961-1976). For level of educational attainment, women with less education marry at younger ages and have their first child at younger ages than their more
educated counterparts. Finally, Canadian-born women marry and have their first child at younger ages compared to foreign-born women. Findings are
discussed in the context of the literature on "age deadlines" and women's family life course events.
http://socserv.socsci.mcmaster.ca/~qsep/title01.htm
Martin-Matthews, Anne, Karen M. Kobayashi, Carolyn J. Rosenthal, and Sarah H. Matthews.
"Age-Gapped and Age-Condensed Lineages: Patterns of Intergenerational Age Structure among Canadian Families."
R.R. No. 363. June 2001. 40 pages.
Abstract:
This paper examines intergenerational connections within Canadian families. Its focus is on intergenerational age structure, the interval or 'gap' in years that
separates one generation from the next. Intergenerational age structure is measured in terms of the age of a mother at the birth of her first child. Using data
from the 1995 General Social Survey of Canada, the study examines the socio-demographic characteristics of women (n=404) in three- and four-generation
families (lineages) that are age-condensed (small age distances between generations that are the result of early fertility) and those that are age- gapped (with
large age distances between generations that are the result of late fertility patterns).
Across two generations of women, there is a striking similarity in the distributions of age at first birth with just under one-third of the sample having early
fertility, just over one-half falling into a normative or "on-time" category, and one-seventh having delayed fertility. However, when matched pairs of mothers
and daughters are compared across generations, age-condensed and age-gapped lineage patterns show considerable variability. Although just under one-half
of mother-daughter dyads show lineage consistency in family age structure across three generations (most typically in age-condensed/age-condensed or
normative/normative age structures), low percentages of women whose family of origin was age-gapped repeat that age structure pattern in their own families
of procreation. Socio-demographic factors such as mother's and daughter's age, family size, age at first marriage, and level of education are associated with
lineage continuity and discontinuity in family age structure.
http://socserv.socsci.mcmaster.ca/~qsep/title01.htm
Razin, Assaf, Efraim Sadka and Phillip Swagel.
"The Aging Population and the Size of the Welfare State."
#8405. July 2001. 24 pages.
Abstract:
Data for the United States and countries in Western Europe indicate a negative correlation between the
dependency ratio and labor tax rates and the generosity of social transfers, after controlling for other factors that
influence the size of the welfare state. This is despite the increased political clout of the
dependent population implied by the aging of the population. This paper develops an overlapping generations model of intra-and
inter-generational transfers (including old-age social security) and human capital formation which addresses this
seeming puzzle. We show that with democratic voting, an increase in the dependency ratio can lead to lower taxes
or less generous social transfers.
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W8405
Ferrie, Joseph P. "The Poor and the Dead: Socioeconomic Status and Mortality in the U.S., 1850-1860."
#H135. August 2001. 28 pages.
Abstract:
Despite the significant research on aggregate trends in mortality and physical stature in the middle of the
nineteenth century, little evidence on the individual-level characteristics associated with premature mortality has
been presented. This essay describes a new project that links individuals from the mortality schedules to the
population schedules of the 1850 and 1860 federal population censuses. This makes it possible to assess the
link between individual and household characteristics and the probability of dying. The results reveal a strong and
negative relationship between household wealth and mortality in 1850 and 1860 and a somewhat weaker negative
relationship between occupational status and mortality in 1850. The findings suggest that even when the U.S.
population was largely rural and agricultural, changes in the distribution of income and wealth would have had a
large impact on mortality rates and life expectancies. Urbanization merely exacerbated already existing disparities
in mortality by socioeconomic status.
http://papers.nber.org/papers/H0135
Nyarko, Philomena, Brian Pence, and Cornelius Debpuur. "Immunization status and child survival in rural Ghana."
#147. 2001. 32 pages.
Abstract:
For three decades, the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) has been promoted as one of the key child health interventions in developing countries.
Vaccines for six childhood diseases (diphtheria, measles, pertussis, poliomyelitis, tetanus, and tuberculosis) have been shown to be efficacious in
preventing disease-specific morbidity and mortality, yet not all commentators are
convinced that the EPI reduces all-cause child mortality. Numerous studies have
found that measles vaccination programs substantially reduce all-cause child mortality, but recent findings from Guinea-Bissau suggest that diphtheria,
pertussis, and tetanus (DPT) vaccine may increase all-cause child mortality.
The present study uses five years of data from the Navrongo Demographic
Surveillance System, a longitudinal population registration system in northern Ghana, to examine all-cause mortality among vaccinated and unvaccinated
children under 5 years of age. The data indicate that coverage by one Bacillus
Calmette-Guerin (BCG) shot, three sets of polio drops, and three DPT shots
reduces mortality between ages 4 and 8 months by nearly 90 percent. Complete coverage by all EPI antigens reduces mortality between ages 9 and 59 months
by 70 percent. BCG, polio, and DPT vaccines without measles vaccination reduce mortality by 40 percent. The independent reduction in mortality
associated with measles vaccination is 50 percent. Our data add to a growing body of
evidence that suggests that measles vaccination programs reduce all-cause mortality substantially beyond the proportion of deaths caused by
measles. These results indicate a need for further research in developing countries on the all-cause mortality impact of these vaccines, in particular DPT
vaccine.
http://www.popcouncil.org/publications/wp/prd/147.html
Bongaarts, John and Zachary Zimmer. "Living arrangements of older
adults in the developing world: An analysis of DHS household surveys." #148.
2001. 34 pages.
Abstract:
Using data from Demographic and Health Surveys, this study examines living arrangements of older adults in 43 developing countries and compares patterns
by gender, world regions, and macro-level measures of socioeconomic development. Indicators include household size, headship, relationship to head,
and coresidence with spouse, children, and others. Unweighted regional averages and OLS regressions determine whether variations exist. Average
household sizes are large, but a substantially higher proportion of elderly adults
live alone than do individuals in other age groups. Females are more likely than
males to live alone and are less likely to live with a spouse or to head a household. Heading a household and living in a large household and with young
children are more prevalent in African than elsewhere. Coresidence with adult children is most common in Asia and least common in Africa. Coresidence is
more frequently with sons than with daughters in both Asia and Africa, but not in
Latin America. Variations in living arrangements within regions are explained in
part by associations between national levels of education and household structure. As a country's level of schooling rises, most living arrangement
indicators change, with families becoming more unclear. Urbanization and GNP have no significant effects on living arrangements. The associations with
education may be attributable to a variety of intermediating factors, such as migration of children and preferences for privacy.
http://www.popcouncil.org/publications/wp/prd/rdwplist.html#2000
Curran, Sara, Wendy Cadge, Anchalee Varangrat, (Mahidol University); and Chang
Chung. "Boys and Girls' Changing Educational Opportunities in Thailand: The
Effects of Siblings, Migration and Village Location." 2001-01.
2001. 38 pages.
Abstract:
This paper uses unique data to explore, at multiple
levels, the correlates and causes of
increasing educational opportunity and declining gender inequality in education
in rural Thailand. We examine three correlates of
educational opportunity that are of theoretical
and empirical interest: sibling number, gender, migration and the relative
location of primary and secondary schools. The
relationship among these correlates and children’s
educational opportunities is considered through the lens of the household
economy literature in the context of social change
and economic development in Thailand. The
longitudinal data capture one period of rapid economic development in Thailand
between 1984 and 1994 and include information about more than 5,000 households,
their members, and the 51 communities in which they live.
http://opr.princeton.edu/papers/
Kniesner, Thomas J. and James P. Ziliak. "Explicit Versus Implicit Income
Insurance." No. 38. July 2001. 30 pages.
Abstract:
By supplementing income explicitly through payments
or implicitly through taxes collected,
income-based taxes and transfers make disposable income less variable. Because
disposable income determines consumption, policies
that smooth disposable income also create welfare
improving consumption insurance. With data from the Panel Study of Income
Dynamics we find that annual consumption
variation is reduced by almost 20 percent due to explicit and implicit
income smoothing. Consumption insurance is as important economically as private
health or automobile insurance. Although taxes have
become an increasingly important source of consumption
insurance, the 2001 income-tax reform legislation should have little effect on
implicit consumption insurance.
http://www-cpr.maxwell.syr.edu/cprwps/wps38abs.htm
Peters, H. Elizabeth, Robert D. Plotnick and Se-Ook Jeong.
"How will welfare reform affect childbearing and family structure decisions?"
Working Paper 01-9. July 2001. 44 pages.
Abstract: None available.
http://csde.washington.edu/csde/wps/wps.html
VanLandingham, Mark and Charles Hirschman. "Population Pressure and Fertility in Pre-Transition
Thailand." Working Paper 01-10. Draft: September
2000. 44 pages.
Abstract:
Prior the demographic transition in Thailand, fertility was high, but not
uniformly so. As in other pre-transition
settings, Thai fertility responded to pressures and opportunities created by
socioeconomic structure and land
availability. Drawing upon provincial data from the 1947 and 1960 censuses of
Thailand, we find a strong "frontier
effect" on Thai fertility in the 1950s. Fertility was higher in sparsely
settled frontier provinces and lower in provinces
with higher population density relative to cultivatable land.
This finding is robust and holds up with controls for agricultural employment,
land quality, and the sex ratio (an
indicator of sex-selective migration). The effect of population pressure lowers
the likelihood of marriage and of marital
fertility. The findings from Thailand are consistent with the research of
Easterlin on the nineteenth century United States and with other pre-transition
societies. We suggest how demographic
transition theory might be broadened to include fertility dynamics in
pre-transition societies.
http://csde.washington.edu/csde/wps/wps.html
Compiled by: Kari Swanson - Library Assistant
Center for Demography and Ecology Information Services
Rm. 4471 Social Science Building
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706-1393 USA
Email: kswanson@ssc.wisc.edu