Recently Published Working Papers in Demography : April 2002

Center for Demography and Ecology Information Services
University of Wisconsin-Madison
http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/cde/library/papers.htm

 

Luxembourg Income Study (LIS) 

Rehme, Günther.  "Education, Economic Growth and Personal Income Inequality Across (Rich) Countires."  No. 300.  April 2002.  37 pages.
Abstract: This paper offers a supply-side explanation of the variation in long-run growth and inequality across countries. In the model education simultaneously affects growth and income inequality. More human capital may increase or decrease growth but also measured inequality. In contrast to some recent contributions the paper uses consistently defined data showing that higher (within-country) inequality is associated with lower growth in rich countries, even when controlling for initial income, education or fertility. Furthermore, (rich) countries that have a more productive education sector appear to have lower inequality. It is argued that institutions and policies which generate more high-skilled people or enhance the productivity of the education sector may affect long-run income equality and growth in a positive way.
http://lisweb.ceps.lu/publications/wpapersf.htm

Rehme, Günther.  "(Re-)Distribution of Personal Incomes, Education and Economic Performance Across Countries."  No. 299.  March 2002. 47 pages.
Abstract: In many OECD countries income inequality has risen, but surprisingly re-distribution as well. The theory attributes this partly to the redistributive effect of education spending. In the model income inequality and growth depend in an inverted U-shaped way on education. To maintain a given level of human capital it is shown that a less efficient schooling technology requires more resources, which lowers pre-tax and post-tax income inequality as well as growth. Using consistently defined income data from the Luxembourg Income Study suggests that there is a negative relationship between growth and income inequality in rich countries. It is argued that using some unadjusted inequality measures in growth regressions may yield estimates that are biased upwards. The evidence suggests that a rich country would raise growth with lower pre-tax and post-tax inequality if it spent more on education.
http://lisweb.ceps.lu/publications/wpapersf.htm

Christopher, Karen.  "Helping Mothers Escape Poverty: As European Policy Shows, Better Wages and Generous Supports are a Better Cure than Promoting Marriage."  No. 298.  April, 2002.
Abstract: The belief that single motherhood is the pre-eminent cause of poverty in America has become a bipartisan cliché. The welfare reform enacted in 1996 was designed, among other things, to discourage single parenthood and to promote marriage. Yet a look at the experiences and policies of other nations suggests a more complex story of the causes and cure of poverty. Evidence from Europe shows that the remedy is increasing the economic resources available to low-income families-through better paying jobs that relieve poverty directly and social supports that reconcile paid employment with reliable parenting.
http://lisweb.ceps.lu/publications/wpapersf.htm

Gabrisch, Hubert and Maria Luigia Segana.  " Intra-industry Trade between European Union and Transition Economies:  Does Income Distribution Matter?"  No. 297.  March 2002.  28 pages.
Abstract:  EU-TE trade is increasingly characterised by intra-industry trade. For some countries (Czech Republic), the share of intra-industry trade in total trade with the EU approaches 60 percent. The decomposition of intra-industry trade into horizontal and vertical shares reveals overwhelming vertical structures with strong quality advantages for the EU and shrinking quality advantages for TE countries wherever trade has been liberalised. Empirical research on factors determining this structure in an EU-TE framework has lagged theoretical and empirical research on horizontal trade and vertical trade in other regions of the world. The main objective of this paper is, therefore, to contribute to the ongoing debate over EU-TE trade structures, by offering an explanation of intra-industry trade. We utilize a cross-country approach in which relative wage differences and country size play a leading role. In addition, as implied by a model of the product-quality cycle, we examine income distribution factors as determinates of the emerging EU-TE structure of trade flows. Using OLS regressions, we find first, that relative differences in wages (per capita income) and country size explain intra-industry trade, when trade is vertical and completely liberalized and second, that cross country differences in income distribution play no explanatory role. We conclude that if increasing wage differences resulted from an increasing productivity gap between high-quality and low-quality industries, then vertical structures will, over the long-term create significant barriers for the increase in TE incomes and lowering EU-TE income differentials.
http://lisweb.ceps.lu/publications/wpapersf.htm

Acemoglu, Daron.  "Cross-Country Inequality Trends."  No. 296.  August 2001.  18 pages.
Abstract:  The economics profession has made considerable progress in understanding the increase in wage inequality in the U.S. and the UK over the past several decades, but currently lacks a consensus on why inequality did not increase, or increased much less, in (continental) Europe over the same time period. I review the two most popular explanations for these differential trends: that relative supply of skills increased faster in Europe, and that European labor market institutions prevented inequality from increasing. I argue that these two explanations go some way towards accounting for the differential cross-country inequality trends, but do not provide an entirely satisfactory explanation. In addition, it appears that relative demand for skills increased differentially across countries. Motivated by this reasoning, I develop a simple theory where labor market institutions creating wage compression in Europe also encourage more investment in technologies increasing the productivity of less-skilled workers, thus implying less skill-biased technical change in Europe than in the U.S.
http://lisweb.ceps.lu/publications/wpapersf.htm

Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research 

Doblhammer, Gabriele.  "Differences in Lifespan by Month of Birth for the United States: The impact of early life events and conditions on late life mortality."  WP 2002-019.  May 2002.  48 pages.
Abstract:  We find significant differences in the mean age at death by month of birth on the basis of 15 million US death certificates for the years 1989 to 1997: those born in fall live about 0.44 of a year longer than those born in spring. The difference depends on race, region of birth, marital status, and education: the differences are largest for the less educated, for those who have never been married and for blacks, and the differences are more marked in the South than in the North. They are only slightly larger for males than for females. For blacks, the shape of the month-of-birth pattern is significantly different from that of whites. We present evidence that this difference is due to whether one has an urban or a rural place of birth. We find a significant month-of-birth pattern for all major causes of death including cardiovascular disease, malignant neoplasms, in particular lung cancer, and other natural diseases like chronic obstructive lung disease, or infectious disease. We reject the hypotheses that the differences in life span by month of birth are caused by seasonal differences in daylight or by seasonal differences in temperature. Our results are consistent with the explanation that seasonal differences in nutrition of the mother during pregnancy and seasonal differences in the exposure to infectious disease early in life lead to the differences in lifespan by month of birth.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/?http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm

Billari, Francesco C.,   Alexia Prskawetz and Johannes Fürnkranz.  "The cultural evolution of age-at-marriage norms."  WP 2002-018.  May 2002.  29 pages.
Abstract:  We present an agent-based model designed to study the cultural evolution of age-at-marriage norms. We review theoretical arguments and empirical evidence on the existence of norms proscribing marriage outside of an acceptable age interval. Using a definition of norms as constraints built in agents, we model the transmission of norms, and of mechanisms of intergenerational transmission of norms. Agents can marry each other only if they share part of the acceptable age interval. We perform several simulation experiments on the evolution across generations. In particular, we study the conditions under which norms persist in the long run, the impact of initial conditions, the role of random mutations, and the impact of social influence. Although the agent-based model we use is highly stylized, it gives important insights on the societal-level dynamics of life-course norms.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/?http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm  

Hank,  Karsten and Hans-Peter Kohler.   "Gender Preferences for Children Revisited: New Evidence from Germany."  WP 2002-017.  May 2002.  24 pages.  
Abstract: Empirical research investigating gender preferences for children and their implications for fertility decisions in advanced industrial societies is relatively scarce. Recent studies on this matter have presented ambiguous evidence regarding the existence as well as the direction such preferences can take. We use data from the most recent German General Social Survey (ALLBUS) to analyse determinants of the preferred sex composition of prospective offspring as well as the influence of the sex of previous children on the respondent’s fertility intentions and their actual behaviour at different parities. We find that the socio-demographic determinants of gender preferences differ when childless respondents are compared with parents, and that boys are preferred as a first child. Although an ultimate sex composition that includes at least one son and one daughter is generally favoured, there is no evidence for a behaviourally relevant gender preference in Germany, when higher parities are considered.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/?http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm

Liu, Guiping.  "How Premarital Children and Childbearing in the Current Marriage Influence Family Stability."  WP 2002-016. April 2002.  32 pages.   
Abstract:By using a Swedish register data set and applying hazard models with unobserved heterogeneity, this study demonstrates that childbearing history plays an important role in predicting the divorce risks of families with various types of premarital children. Families with premarital children definitely have a higher risk of divorce than do those without premarital children. Producing a common child cements bonds in the family but as the youngest common child grows up, his or her role of maintaining family relations weakens. Families with premarital children from the wife's relation with another man clearly have a higher risk of divorce than do families with other types of premarital children. Additional findings deviate from what has been reported in the literature.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/?http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm

Brockmann, Hilke and Thomas Klein.  "Love and Death in Germany. The marital biography and its impact on mortality."  WP 2002-015. April 2002.  31 pages.
Abstract:  Most studies dealing with the impact of marriage on mortality treat being married as a once-and-for-all status. However, multiple life changes in marital status characterize the modern life course. The purpose of this paper is to analyze how the timing of these changes affect mortality in Germany. Longitudinal data show that the positive effects of getting married accumulate over long periods of time, while the negative effect of divorce and widowhood attenuates after some time. We also find that the effect of any marital status wears out with an individual’s age and differs between cohorts, which is partly due to selectivity. Both temporal mechanism and selection processes demonstrate the plasticity of the marital biography and its variable effect on mortality.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/?http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm

von der Lippe, Holger, Francesco C. Billari and Olaf Reis.  " Bearing children in unstable times.  Psychological traits and early parenthood in a lowest-low fertility context, Rostock 1990-1995."  WP-2002-014.  April 2002.  38 pages.  
Abstract: In this paper, we analyze a unique longitudinal data set from Rostock in Eastern Germany. Data collection began in the communist era and has been followed up until today. Employing proportional-hazard models, we use psychological individual-level measures (such as personality traits, social and cognitive resources, coping styles, etc.) at age 20 as determinants of the subjects' subsequent transition rate to parenthood. We find strong evidence to support the notion that psychological factors function as proximate determinants of differential fertility. We conclude that psychological individual-level data are important in understanding patterns, especially during times when society faces massive and incalculable upheavals.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/?http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm

Pennsylvania State University.  Population Studies Center. 

Graefe, Deborah Roempke and Daniel T. Lichter.  "When Unwed Mothers Marry: The Men in Women's Lives at Mid-Life."  02-01 Paper. February 2002.  38 pages.
Abstract:  Marriage, presumably having the salutary effect of reducing nonmarital childbearing, has
become a goal of welfare reform under the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996. Unfortunately, we know little about the men in the lives of unwed mothers. Using retrospective data on relationship histories for 4,006 women at mid-life from the 1995 National Survey of Family Growth, our marital search model shows that nonmarital childbearing diminishes women’s marriage prospects and negatively affects their ability to attract mates with high economic potential, to cement unmarried partnerships via marriage, and to maintain stable marital unions over time. Our study suggests that family well-being depends partly on the demographic supply of economically attractive men and women’s ability to compete successfully in marriage markets. 
http://www.pop.psu.edu/info-core/library/wp_lists/full-listing.htm#2002

University of Michigan. Population Studies Center 

Wu, Xiaogang, and Yu Xie. "Does the Market Pay Off? Earnings Inequality and Returns to Education in Urban China." PSC Research Report 02-500. April 2002.  32 pages.
Abstract: The Chinese household registration system (hukou) may be the most important determinant of differential privilege in state socialist China. Urban registrants are entitled to the best jobs, education, housing, and health care -- all of which are unavailable to those with rural registration. Thus, transforming one's hukou status from rural to urban is a central aspect of upward mobility. But given that hukou status is essentially ascribed at birth, how do rural hokou holders affect this change to urban status? Using data from a 1996 national probability sample, we found that education, communist party membership, and military service are the main determinants of rural-to-urban status changes.
http://141.211.200.59/pubs/FMPro?-db=items&-lay=web&-format=results.html&-max=30&series+code=rr&-SortField=pubyear&-SortOrder=descend&-SortField=Month+Number&-SortOrder=descend&-token=verb&-find

Wu, Xiaogang , and Donald J. Treiman. "The Household Registration System and Social Stratification in China: 1955-1996." PSC Research Report 02-499. April 2002.  40 pages.
Abstract:  The Chinese household registration system (hukou) may be the most important determinant of differential privilege in state socialist China. Urban registrants are entitled to the best jobs, education, housing, and health care -- all of which are unavailable to those with rural registration. Thus, transforming one's hukou status from rural to urban is a central aspect of upward mobility. But given that hukou status is essentially ascribed at birth, how do rural hokou holders affect this change to urban status? Using data from a 1996 national probability sample, we found that education, communist party membership, and military service are the main determinants of rural-to-urban status changes.
http://141.211.200.59/pubs/FMPro?-db=items&-lay=web&-format=results.html&-max=30&series+code=rr&-SortField=pubyear&-SortOrder=descend&-SortField=Month+Number&-SortOrder=descend&-token=verb&-find


Knodel, John, Wassana Im-em, Chanpen Saengtienchai, Mark VanLandingham, and Jiraporn Kespichayawattana. "The Impact of an Adult Child's Death due to AIDS on Older-Aged Parents: Results from a Direct Interview Survey." PSC Research Report 02-498. April 2002.  86 pages.
Abstract:  The present report describes the methodology and findings of a direct interview survey in Thailand of parents of deceased adult children who died of AIDS and a comparison group of older age parents who had not suffered such a loss. The results provide extensive information on living arrangements; parental caregivng; health Impacts; spouses and orphaned children; care, treatment and funeral expense; longer term economic impacts; and community reaction. The detailed results of our survey show considerable diversity in the extent parents are impacted. Clearly personal caregiving and instrumental assistance by parents, especially the mother, can be very demanding. Even when a parent is a main caregiver, other family members, particularly other adult children, often assist the parental caregiver. Parents also often serve as critical links between their ill adult child and the health care system. Care giving often takes a toll on the emotional and physical health of the parental caregiver at the time care is being provided. Only a minority of the AIDS parents had fostered grandchildren left behind by their deceased son or daughter. Overall, the loss of a child to AIDS has a serious economic impact for only a minority of AIDS parents. At the same time, the poor appear to be the most adversely affected. Sustained social stigma directed at parents of persons who died of AIDS is far from universal in Thailand at present. Sympathetic and supportive reactions from others in the community are more frequently reported than negative ones.
http://141.211.200.59/pubs/FMPro?-db=items&-lay=web&-format=results.html&-max=30&series+code=rr&-SortField=pubyear&-SortOrder=descend&-SortField=Month+Number&-SortOrder=descend&-token=verb&-find

University of Wisconsin. Institute for Research on Poverty 

Hu, Yu-Whuei and Barbara Wolfe.  "Health Inequality between Black and White Women."  DP 1251-02. April 2002. 46 pages.
Abstract:  The black-white inequality in health status in the United States has persisted despite large increases in life expectancy and improvements in the health status of both races. Our objective is to examine the inequality in health status between black and white women and to explore the extent to which such differences are associated with observed dissimilarities in characteristics such as insurance status, utilization of care, and socioeconomic status. We use data from the 1996 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey to estimate (reduced-form) health production functions. Based on results of a "Chow-type" test, separate models are estimated for the black and white samples. To account for the endogeneity of medical care utilization, we employ a Murphy-Topel two-step econometric method; a Hausman test rejects the exogeneity hypothesis. According to our medical care utilization estimation, those who are both poor and uninsured are less likely to use physician services. Controlling for observed factors, including prior health status, our estimation of the health production function shows that greater use of medical care and higher educational levels increase the likelihood of being healthy, while lower incomes and being overweight reduce that likelihood. On the basis of our estimates, we predict that black women's likelihood of having excellent health would increase by 3-4 percentage points if they had the same characteristics, such as number of physician visits, educational level, marital status, weight status, and income level, as those of their white counterparts.
http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/irp/dp/dplist-02.htm

 

 

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