Short, Kathleen and Thesia I. Garner. "Experimental Poverty Measures Under Alternative Treatments of Medical Out-of-Pocket Expenditures: An Application of the Consumer Expenditure Survey." WP-358 (May 2002). Abstract: This paper presents experimental poverty measures that update those presented in Current Population Report, P60-216, "Experimental Poverty Measures: 1999". Estimates for 2000 are presented and compared with the official measure. In this paper we emphasize the difference in two of the measures that use Consumer Expenditure (CE) data to estimate medical out-of-pocket expenses. Poverty rates, poverty gaps, and income-to-poverty-threshold ratios are computed and compared across poverty measures for various subgroups, particularly children and the aged. Results show that alternate methods of measuring medical expenses affect our perception of the relative incidence of poverty, the depth of poverty experienced by these groups, and the number of people who are classified in extreme poverty (those with family income below one-half of the poverty threshold). http://www.bls.gov/ore/orecatlg.htm
Garner, Thesia I., Javier Ruiz-Castillo, and Mercedes Sastre. "The Influence of Demographics and Household Specific Price Indices on Consumption Based Inequality and Welfare: A Comparison of Spain and the United States." WP-357 (May 2002). Abstract:
Previous research suggests that income inequality is lower in Spain than in the U.S. This paper studies whether this ranking remains the same when household consumption expenditures are used as a proxy for household welfare. Both inequality and social welfare, as components of economic well-being, are examined. Total household expenditures from each country’s 1990-91 consumer expenditure survey are used as the basis for the analysis. For tractability, equivalence scales depend only on the number of people in the household and not any other demographic characteristic. Household specific price indices are used to express the 1990-91 expenditure distributions at winter of 1981 and winter of 1991 prices. Decomposable measurement instruments are used both for the inequality and social welfare analyses. Bootstrap methods are used to produce confidence intervals for all estimates.
When consumption expenditures are substituted for income as the measure of economic well-being, the ranking of Spain and the U.S. varies as both household size and the equivalence scale adjustment change. When focusing on household size alone, inequality and welfare comparisons are drastically different for smaller and larger households. The income inequality ranking can only be maintained for expenditure distributions when economies of scale are assumed to be small or non-existent. However, welfare is always higher in the U.S. than in Spain. It is concluded that household demographic characteristics, as well as equivalence scale adjustments, can be very important in international comparisons. With regard to household-specific relative price effects, inflation during the 1980s in both countries has been essentially neutral from a distributional point of view, so that all results are robust to the choice of time period. http://www.bls.gov/ore/orecatlg.htm
Baizán, P., A. Aassve, and F. C. Billari. "Institutional arrangements and life course outcomes: The interrelations between cohabitation, marriage and first birth in Germany and Sweden." WP-2002-026 (June 2002). Abstract: We study the link between institutional arrangements and fertility, focusing on how institutions affect the nexus between partnership formation and fertility. We apply simultaneous hazard models to family and fertility survey data for Germany and Sweden. Our results show a significant presence of correlated unobserved factors that affect both partnership formation and the transition to parenthood. We argue that these factors reflect the heterogeneous composition of each population with respect to values and norms. Net of that correlation, the impact of being in a union on first birth is higher in Sweden than in Germany, in particular for cohabitation. http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm
Le Goff, J.-M. "Cohabiting unions in France and West Germany: Transitions to first birth and first marriage." WP-2002-025 (June 2002). Abstract: This paper compares the non-marital birth pattern in France and West Germany. Since the beginning of the eighties, France witnessed a steady increase in non-marital birth rates, while in West Germany non-marital birth rates have remained at a relatively low level. We attribute these differences to the institutional and legal constraints from both sides of the Rhine which hamper or foster childbearing in cohabiting unions. In West Germany, family policies are based on the model of the conjugal family and the male breadwinner model. Until recently, it was not possible for an unmarried father to recognize his child and to obtain parental authority. In France, family policies have responded to the “pluralization” of family lives and it is possible for an unmarried father to recognize his child and obtain parental authority. Using data from the French and German Family and Fertility Survey, we apply event history modeling to the transition to marriage and first birth. Our results indicate a polarization of family forms in both countries. In West Germany, we find a polarization in a “family sector” and a “non-family sector” while in France there is a polarization in a “marriage sector” and a “cohabiting sector”. http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm
Philipov, D. "Fertility in times of discontinuous societal change: the case of Central and Eastern Europe." WP-2002-024 (June 2002). http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm
Beise, J. and E. Voland. "A multilevel event history analysis of the effects of grandmothers on child mortality in a historical German population (Krummhörn, Ostfriesland, 1720-1874)." WP-2002-023 (May 2002). Abstract: We analyzed data from the historic population of the Krummhörn (Ostfriesland, Germany, 1720-1874) to determine the effects of grandparents in general and grandmothers in particular on child mortality. Multilevel event-history models were used to test how the survival of grandparents in general influenced the survival of the children. Random effects were included in some models in order to take the potentially influential effect of unobserved heterogeneity into account. It could be shown that while maternal grandmothers indeed improved the child’s survival, paternal grandmothers worsened it. Both grandfathers had no effect. These findings are not only in accordance with the assumptions of the “grandmother hypothesis” but also may be interpreted as hints for differential grandparental investment strategies. http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm
Burgess, S., C. Propper, and A. Aassve. "The role of income in marriage and divorce transitions among young Americans." WP-2002-022 (May 2002). http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm
Hank, K. "Eine Mehrebenenanalyse regionaler Einflüsse auf die Familiengründung westdeutscher Frauen in den Jahren 1984 bis 1999." WP-2002-021 (May 2002). Abstract: Der Artikel untersucht die Bedeutung regionaler Einflussfaktoren auf der Kreisebene für den Prozess der Familiengründung westdeutscher Frauen in den 1980er und 1990er Jahren. Als theoretischer Rahmen wird ein Mehrebenenmodell soziologischer Erklärung vorgeschlagen. Die empirische Analyse des Übergangs zur ersten Ehe sowie der Geburt des ersten und zweiten Kindes erfolgt auf der Grundlage von Mikrodaten des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels (SOEP) und unter Verwendung eines Methoden-Mixes aus ereignisanalytischen und mehrebenenanalytischen Verfahren. Die beiden wichtigsten Befunde sind erstens, dass regionale Unterschiede im Geburtenverhalten weitestgehend durch Kontrolle individueller Merkmale – vor allem Familienstand und Alter – erklärt werden können, und zweitens, dass es eine signifikante regionale Varianz im Heiratsverhalten gibt, die weder auf Kompositionseffekte noch auf strukturelle Kontexteffekte zurückzuführen ist. Regionale Einflüsse auf Fertilitätsentscheidungen westdeutscher Frauen haben demnach keine eigenständige Qualität, sondern werden über einen latenten Kontexteffekt raumgebundener sozio-kultureller Milieus auf die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Eheschließung lediglich indirekt vermittelt. http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm
Bühler, C. and H.-P. Kohler. "Talking about AIDS: The influence of communication networks on individual risk perceptions of HIV/AIDS infection and favored protective behaviors in South Nyanza District, Kenya." WP-2002-020 (May 2002). Abstract: How do people alter their sexual behavior in the era of AIDS? Individualistic models of behavioral change dominate the approach to this question. However, these models only partly fit to cultures and societies in sub-Saharan Africa that rest to a large extend on ideas of the community and only to a small extend on ideas of the individual. Therefore, to explain behavioral change in the context of AIDS, also aspects of the community and the social environment have to be considered. Social networks are one central aspect, because they provide a person with opportunities for health-related communication and interpersonal influence. This paper explores the significance of social relationships to two important stages in the process of sexual behavioral change: the perceived risk of becoming HIV-infected through unprotected sexual intercourse and the preferred methods of protection either through sexual fidelity, or through condom use. The empirical analyses are based on data from the ´Kenyan Diffusion and Ideational Change Project´ (KDICP) which provides information about AIDS-related, ego-centered communication networks of Kenyan men and women. The results show that perceived risks, as well as preferred methods of protection against HIV-infection, depend in general on the prevailing perceptions and favored protective methods within personal communication networks. However, different influential network properties can be found. The risk-perceptions of women are shaped by strong relationships and cohesive network structures. Male´s risk perception depends more on the number of risk-perceivers in their communication networks. Heterogeneous relationships of various kinds are influential on women’s and men’s probability of favoring sexual faithfulness as a method of protection against HIV-infection. http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm
Doblhammer, G. "Differences in lifespan by month of birth for the United States: The impact of early life events and conditions on late life mortality." WP-2002-019 (May 2002). Abstract: We find significant differences in the mean age at death by month of birth on the basis of 15 million US death certificates for the years 1989 to 1997: Those born in fall live about 0.44 of a year longer than those born in spring. The difference depends on race, region of birth, marital status, and education: The differences are largest for the less educated, for those who have never been married and for blacks, and the differences are more marked in the South than in the North. They are only slightly larger for males than for females. For blacks, the shape of the month-of-birth pattern is significantly different from that of whites. We present evidence that this difference is due to whether one has an urban or a rural place of birth. We find a significant month-of-birth pattern for all major causes of death including cardiovascular disease, malignant neoplasms, in particular lung cancer, and other natural diseases like chronic obstructive lung disease, or infectious disease. We reject the hypotheses that the differences in life span by month of birth are caused by seasonal differences in daylight or by seasonal differences in temperature. Our results are consistent with the explanation that seasonal differences in nutrition of the mother during pregnancy and seasonal differences in the exposure to infectious disease early in life lead to the differences in lifespan by month of birth. http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm
Billari, F.C., A. Prskawetz, and J. Fürnkranz. "The cultural evolution of age-at-marriage norms." WP-2002-018 (May 2002). Abstract: We present an agent-based model designed to study the cultural evolution of age-at-marriage norms. We review theoretical arguments and empirical evidence on the existence of norms proscribing marriage outside of an acceptable age interval. Using a definition of norms as constraints built in agents, we model the transmission of norms, and of mechanisms of intergenerational transmission of norms. Agents can marry each other only if they share part of the acceptable age interval. We perform several simulation experiments on the evolution across generations. In particular, we study the conditions under which norms persist in the long run, the impact of initial conditions, the role of random mutations, and the impact of social influence. Although the agent-based model we use is highly stylized, it gives important insights on the societal-level dynamics of life-course norms. http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm
Hank, K. and H.-P. Kohler. "Gender preferences for children revisited: New evidence from Germany." WP-2002-018 (May 2002). Abstract: Empirical research investigating gender preferences for children and their implications for fertility decisions in advanced industrial societies is relatively scarce. Recent studies on this matter have presented ambiguous evidence regarding the existence as well as the direction such preferences can take. We use data from the most recent German General Social Survey (ALLBUS) to analyse determinants of the preferred sex composition of prospective offspring as well as the influence of the sex of previous children on the respondent’s fertility intentions and their actual behaviour at different parities. We find that the socio-demographic determinants of gender preferences differ when childless respondents are compared with parents, and that boys are preferred as a first child. Although an ultimate sex composition that includes at least one son and one daughter is generally favoured, there is no evidence for a behaviourally relevant gender preference in Germany, when higher parities are considered. http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm
Levine, Phillip B. "The Impact of Social Policy and Economic Activity Throughout the Fertility Decision Tree." NBER Working Paper No.w9021 (June 2002). Abstract: This paper considers the impact of changes in abortion and welfare policies along with economic conditions over the 1985 to 1996 period at each stage of the fertility decision tree, including sexual activity, contraception, pregnancy, abortion, and birth. Examining the impact of policy at each stage of the decision tree represents a useful approach because consistent findings provide stronger evidence of a causal link than focusing on just one stage. The abortion policies considered are parental involvement laws and mandatory waiting periods; welfare policies include benefit generosity as well as state-level welfare waivers as a whole and the 'family cap.' State-level data over this period are used to examine abortion, birth, and pregnancy outcomes, while microdata from the 1988 and 1995 National Surveys of Family Growth are employed to examine sexual activity and contraception. For those policies that target certain subgroups of the population, estimates are provided separately for each group and compared to help further identify causality. I find that parental involvement laws increase contraception use among minors, leading to fewer pregnancies and, therefore, fewer abortions; teen births do not rise in response. Evidence regarding welfare policies does not consistently support any impact throughout the decision tree. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Dehejia, Rajeev and Roberta Gatti "Child Labor: The Role of Income Variability and Access to Credit Across Countries." NBER Working Paper No.w9018 (June 2002). Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between child labor and access to credit at a cross-country level. Even though this link is theoretically central to child labor, so far there has been little work done to assess its importance empirically. We measure child labor as a country aggregate, and credit constraints are proxied by the extent of financial development. These two variables display a strong negative relationship, which we show is robust to selection on observables (by controlling for a wide range of variables such as GDP per capita, urbanization, initial child labor, schooling, fertility, legal institutions, inequality, and openness, and by allowing for a nonparametric functional form), and to selection on unobservables (by allowing for fixed effects). We find that the magnitude of the association between our proxy of access to credit and child labor is large in the sub-sample of poor countries. Moreover, in the absence of developed financial markets, households appear to resort substantially to child labor in order to cope with income variability. This evidence suggests that policies aimed at widening households' access to credit could be effective in reducing the extent of child labor. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Krueger, Alan B. and Bruce D. Meyer "Labor Supply Effects of Social Insurance." NBER Working Paper No.w9014 (June 2002). Abstract: This chapter examines the labor supply effects of social insurance programs. We argue that this topic deserves separate treatment from the rest of the labor supply literature because individuals may be imperfectly informed as to the rules of the programs and because key parameters are likely to differ for those who are eligible for social insurance programs, such as the disabled. Furthermore, differences in social insurance programs often provide natural experiments with exogenous changes in wages or incomes that can be used to estimate labor supply responses. Finally, social insurance often affects different margins of labor supply. For example, the labor supply literature deals mostly with adjustments in the number of hours worked, whereas the incentives of social insurance programs frequently affect the decision of whether to work at all. The empirical work on unemployment insurance (UI) and workers' compensation (WC) insurance finds that the programs tend to increase the length of time employees spend out of work. Most of the estimates of the elasticities of lost work time that incorporate both the incidence and duration of claims are close to 1.0 for unemployment insurance and between 0.5 and 1.0 for workers' compensation. These elasticities are substantially larger than the labor supply elasticities typically found for men in studies of the effects of wages or taxes on hours of work. The evidence on disability insurance and (especially) social security retirement suggests much smaller and less conclusively established labor supply effects. Part of the explanation for this difference probably lies in the fact that UI and WC lead to short-run variation in wages with mostly a substitution effect. Our review suggest that it would be misleading to apply a universal set of labor supply elasticities to these diverse problems and populations. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Acemoglu, Daron, David H. Autor and David Lyle. "Women, War and Wages: The Effect of Female Labor Supply on the Wage Structure at Mid-Century." NBER Working Paper No.w9013 (June 2002). Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of female labor supply on the wage structure. To identify variation in female labor supply, we exploit the military mobilization for World War II, which drew many women into the workforce as males exited civilian employment. The extent of mobilization was not uniform across states, however, with the fraction of eligible males serving ranging from 41 to 54 percent. We find that in states with greater mobilization of men, women worked substantially more after the War and in 1950, though not in 1940. We interpret these differentials as labor supply shifts induced by the War. We find that increases in female labor supply lower female wages, lower male wages, and increase the college and premium and male wage inequality generally. Our findings indicate that at mid-century, women were closer substitutes to high school graduate and relatively low-skill males, but not to those with the lowest skills. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Bhattacharya, Jayanta, Thomas DeLeire, Steven Haider, and Janet Currie. "Heat or Eat? Cold Weather Shocks and Nutrition in Poor American Families." NBER Working Paper No.w9004 (June 2002). Abstract: We examine the effects of cold weather periods on family budgets and on nutritional outcomes in poor American families. Expenditures on food and home fuels are tracked by linking the Consumer Expenditure Survey to temperature data. Using the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, we track calorie consumption, dietary quality, vitamin deficiencies, and anemia in summer and winter months. We find that both rich and poor families increase fuel expenditures in response to unusually cold weather (a 10 degree F drop below normal). At same time, poor families reduce food expenditures by roughly the same amount as the increase in fuel expenditures, while rich families increase food expenditures. Poor adults and children reduce caloric intake by roughly 200 calories during winter months, unlike richer adults and children. In sensitivity analyses, we find that decreases in food expenditure are most pronounced outside the South. We conclude that poor parents and their children outside the South spend and eat less food during cold weather temperature shocks. We surmise that existing social programs fail to buffer against these shocks. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Bhattacharya, Jayanta, Steven Haider, and Janet Currie. "Food Insecurity or Poverty? Measuring Need-Related Dietary Adequacy." NBER Working Paper No.w9003 (June 2002). Abstract: We examine the extent to which food insecurity questions and the standard poverty measure are correlated with various dietary and physiologic outcomes. Our findings suggest that the correlations vary tremendously by age. We find that the food insecurity questions are correlated with the dietary outcomes of older household members, but that they are not consistently related to the diets of children. In contrast, poverty predicts dietary outcomes among preschoolers. Among adults, both poverty and food insecurity questions are good predictors of many dietary outcomes. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Lleras-Muney, Adriana. "The Relationship Between Education and Adult Mortality in the United States." NBER Working Paper No.w8986 (June 2002). Abstract: Prior research has uncovered a large and positive correlation between education and health. This paper examines whether education has a causal impact on health. I follow synthetic cohorts using successive U.S. censuses to estimate the impact of educational attainment on mortality rates. I use compulsory education laws from 1915 to 1939 as instruments for education. The results suggest that education has a causal impact on mortality, and that this effect is perhaps larger than has been previously estimated in the literature. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Goldin, Claudia. "A Pollution Theory of Discrimination: Male and Female Differences in Occupations and Earnings." NBER Working Paper No.w8985 (June 2002). Abstract: Occupations are segregated by sex today, but were far more segregated in the early to mid-twentieth century when married women began to enter the labor force in large numbers. It is difficult to rationalize sex segregation and 'wage discrimination' on the basis of men's taste for distance from women in the same way differences between other groups in work and housing have been explained. Rather, this paper constructs a 'pollution' theory model of discrimination in which new female hires may reduce the prestige of a previously all-male occupation. The predictions of the model concern the range of segregated and integrated occupations with respect to a productivity characteristic and how occupational segregation changes as the characteristic distributions become more similar by sex. The historical record reveals numerous cases of the model's predictions. Occupations that were more segregated by sex, for both men and women, contained individuals with higher levels of the productivity characteristic. 'Credentialization,' the shattering of old stereotypes, and information about individual women's productivities can help expunge 'pollution.' http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Manski, Charles F. and Joram Mayshar. "Private and Social Incentives for Fertility: Israeli Puzzles." NBER Working Paper No.w8984 (June 2002). Abstract: Whereas most of the world has experienced decreasing fertility during the past half century, Israel has experienced a puzzling mix of trends. Completed fertility has decreased sharply in some ethnic-religious groups (Mizrahi Jews and non-Bedouin Arabs) and increased moderately in other groups (non-ultra-orthodox Ashkenazi and Israeli-born Jews). In a phenomenon that can only be described as a reverse fertility transition, fertility has increased substantially (from about 3 to 6 children per women) among ultra-orthodox Ashkenazi and Israeli-born Jews. This paper explores how private and social incentives for fertility may have combined to produce the complex pattern of fertility in Israel. Theoretical analysis of the social dynamics of fertility shows that this pattern could have been generated by the joint effects of (a) private preferences for childbearing, (b) preferences for conformity to group fertility norms, and (c) the major child-allowance program introduced by the Israeli government in the 1970s. Econometric analysis of fertility decisions shows that fundamental identification problems make it difficult to infer the actual Israeli fertility process from data on completed fertility. Hence we are able to conjecture meaningfully on what may have happened, but we cannot definitively resolve the Israeli fertility puzzles. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Heavner, D. Lee and Lance Lochner. "Social Networks and the Aggregation on Individual Decisions." NBER Working Paper No.w8979 (June 2002). Abstract: This paper analyzes individual decisions to participate in an activity and the aggregation of those decisions when individuals gather information about the outcomes and choices of (a few) others in their social network. In this environment, aggregate participation rates are generally inefficient. Increasing the size of social networks does not necessarily increase efficiency and can lead to less efficient long-run outcomes. Both subsidies for participation and penalties for non-participation can increase participation rates, though not necessarily by the same amount. Punishing non-participation has much greater effects on participation rates than rewarding participation when current rates are very low. A program that provides youth with mentors who have participated themselves can increase participation rates, especially when those rates are low. Finally, communities plagued by the flight of successful participants will experience lower short- and long-run participation rates. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Fryer, Roland G., Jr. and Steven D. Levitt. "Understanding the Black-White Test Score Gap in the First Two Years of School." NBER Working Paper No.w8975 (June 2002). Abstract: In previous research, a substantial gap in test scores between White and Black students persists, even after controlling for a wide range of observable characteristics. Using a newly available data set (Early Childhood Longitudinal Study), we demonstrate that in stark contrast to earlier studies, the Black-White test score gap among incoming kindergartners disappears when we control for a small number of covariates. Over the first two years of school, however, Blacks lose substantial ground relative to other races. There is suggestive evidence that differences in school quality may be an important part of the explanation. None of the other hypotheses we test to explain why Blacks are losing ground receive any empirical backing. The difference between our findings and previous research is consistent with real gains made by recent cohorts of Blacks, although other explanations are also possible. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Jacob, Brian A. "Where the boys aren't: Non-cognitive skills, returns to school and the gender gap in higher education." NBER Working Paper No.w8964 (June 2002). Abstract: Nearly 60 percent of college students today are women. Using longitudinal data on a nationally representative cohort of eighth grade students in 1988, I examine two potential explanations for the differential attendance rates of men and women -- returns to schooling and non-cognitive skills. The attendance gap is roughly five percentage points for all high school graduates. Conditional on attendance, however, there are few differences in type of college, enrollment status or selectivity of institution. The majority of the attendance gap can be explained by differences in the characteristics of men and women, despite some gender differences in the determinants of college attendance. I find that higher non-cognitive skills and college premiums among women account for nearly 90 percent of the gender gap in higher education. Interestingly, non-cognitive factors continue to influence college enrollment after controlling for high school achievement. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Hampden-Thompson, Gillian and Suet-ling Pong. "Does Family Policy Environment Mediate the effect of Single-Parenthood on Children's Academic Achievement? A Study of 14 European Countries." Working Paper 02-04 (May 2002). http://www.pop.psu.edu/info-core/library/wp_lists/full-listing.htm#2002
Pong, Suet-ling, Japp Dronkers, and Gillian Hampden-Thompson. "Family Policies and Academic Achievement by Young Children in Single-Parent Families: An International Comparison." Working Paper 02-03 (May 2002) (Revised version of working paper 01-11). http://www.pop.psu.edu/info-core/library/wp_lists/full-listing.htm#2002
Bongaarts, John. "The end of the fertility transition in the developing world." Policy Research Division Working Paper No. 161 (2002). Abstract: Fertility declines are now underway in many developing countries, and the focus of the debate about future fertility trends is shifting from the early to the later phases of the transition. This study examines patterns and determinants of fertility in the developing world using UN estimates of the total fertility rates for 143 developing countries from 1950 to 2000. The main objective is to identify regularities in the past record that may provide clues to future trends. Three key findings emerge from this analysis. First, the pace of fertility decline decelerates as countries reach the later stages of the transition. In the decade immediately following the transition onset, fertility usually declines rapidly and without interruption; but once fertility drops below about four births per woman, additional reductions occur, on average, at a substantially slower pace. Second, it is highly unlikely that developing countries will converge on replacement fertility of 2.1 children per woman as is often assumed in population projections. Past transition patterns suggest that a significant number of countries will likely stall above 2.1 for periods of up to decades or will approach low fertility at a very slow pace. Third, the future course of fertility depends crucially on progress in human development and on family planning effort. The recent experience of developing countries with relatively high levels of development suggests that life expectancy near 75 years combined with literacy near 95 percent is needed on average to reach replacement. Many countries are still far from these levels of human development and have weak family planning programs, thus making further progress through the transition difficult. http://www.popcouncil.org/publications/wp/prd/rdwplist.html
Dayton, Julia and Martha Ainsworth. "The elderly and AIDS: Coping strategies and health consequences in rural Tanzania." Policy Research Division Working Paper No. 160. (2002). Abstract: The elderly are often especially likely to be adversely affected by the death from AIDS of prime-aged adults. The authors use a longitudinal survey of households from northwestern Tanzania in 1991–94 to compare the activities and wellbeing of the elderly in households before and after the death of a prime-aged adult with those of the elderly in households that did not experience the death of an adult. A significant proportion of adults suffering from AIDS return to their parents’ home shortly before death. Time spent by the elderly performing household chores rises following an adult’s death, and their participation in wage employment falls; no evidence is found of increased participation in farm work among the elderly. Evidence shows that the physical well-being of the elderly as measured by body mass index is reduced before the death of an adult relative but recovers thereafter. These results suggest that interventions to prevent a decline in well-being should be focused on the elderly in households with an AIDS patient during the period of illness. Finally, the physical well-being of the elderly in poor and better-off households prior to an adult’s death is compared with that of the elderly in the poorest households that did not experience the death of an adult. The comparison indicates clearly that the poor have the lowest body mass index. Thus, deaths of adults from AIDS are likely to have the largest adverse impacts on the elderly in poor households. A broader group of elderly poor people with pervasive low health status should also be the focus of public policy designed to improve the welfare of the elderly. http://www.popcouncil.org/publications/wp/prd/rdwplist.html
Kaufman, Carol. E., Shelley Clark, Ntsiki Manzini, and Julian May. "How community structures of time and opportunity shape adolescent sexual behavior in South Africa." Policy Research Division Working Paper No. 159 (2002). Abstract: Recently, South Africa has led the world in rates of HIV/AIDS infection. Particularly among young adults, the prevalence of HIV has soared, now reaching 25 percent. The statistics suggest a high level of unprotected sex and risky sexual behavior even in the midst of high levels of knowledge. Research has focused on the dynamics of individuals’ and partners’ sexual decision making. Little is known, however, about the larger context in which those decisions are made. What are the everyday experiences that influence risk-taking? Are young people with little to do more likely to engage in risky behavior? Do community opportunities of schooling, work, and other activities make a difference? This study employs time-use data and data on education, work, and activities of adolescents collected from a representative sample of 2,992 young people aged 14 to 22 living in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, to explore these questions. Analyses of time use indicate that African and Indian girls spend twice as much time engaged in unpaid domestic work as do their male counterparts, whereas white boys spend the most time of those studied in paid positions. Africans, both boys and girls, report studying fewer hours than other racial groups. For girls, levels of education in the community were positively associated with not having had sex in the last 12 months. Levels of wages in communities were positively associated with condom use for both boys and girls. Levels of sports activity in communities had a positive association with risk-taking among boys and a negative one among girls. http://www.popcouncil.org/publications/wp/prd/rdwplist.html
Beaujot, Roderic P. "Earning and Caring: Porter Lecture, meetings of the Canadian Sociology and Anthropology Association, Toronto, 30 May 2002." Discussion Paper 02-08 (June 2002). http://www.ssc.uwo.ca/sociology/popstudies/dp2002.html
Ravanera, Zenaida R., Roderic Beaujot and Fernando Rajulton. "The Family and Political Dimension of Social Cohesion: Analysing the Link using the 2000 National Survey on Giving, Volunteering and Participating." Discussion Paper 02-07 (June 2002). http://www.ssc.uwo.ca/sociology/popstudies/dp2002.html
Beaujot, Roderic. "Projecting the future of Canada's population: assumptions, implications, and policy." CPS Presidential Address. Discussion Paper 02-06 (May 2002). http://www.ssc.uwo.ca/sociology/popstudies/dp2002.html
Ravanera, Zenaida R., Fernando Rajulton and Thomas K. Burch. "Effects of Community and Family Characteristics on Early Life Transitions of Canadian Youth." Discussion Paper 02-05 (May 2002). http://www.ssc.uwo.ca/sociology/popstudies/dp2002.html
Gyimah, Stephen Obeng-Manu. "The Dynamics of Spacing and Timing of Births in Ghana." Discussion Paper 02-04 (May 2002). http://www.ssc.uwo.ca/sociology/popstudies/dp2002.html
Gyimah, Stephen Obeng-Manu. "Lagged effect of childhood mortality on reproductive behavior in Ghana and Kenya." Discussion Paper 02-03 (May 2002). http://www.ssc.uwo.ca/sociology/popstudies/dp2002.html
Gyimah, Stephen Obeng-Manu. "Fertility Response to Childhood Mortality in sub-Saharan with emphasis on Ghana and Kenya." Discussion Paper 02-02 (May 2002). http://www.ssc.uwo.ca/sociology/popstudies/dp2002.html
Bitler, Marianne, Janet Currie, and John Karl Scholz. "WIC Eligibility and Participation." DP 1255-02 (June 2002). Abstract: This study examines WIC eligibility and participation using the Current Population Survey (CPS) and the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). Comparisons of these sources to administrative totals suggest that participation is significantly undercounted in the CPS and in SIPP. However, the characteristics of families reported to receive WIC in the CPS and SIPP are similar to the administratively reported characteristics of WIC recipients nationally, which suggests that the undercount may be mostly random.
An examination of WIC takeup by eligible households using SIPP shows that takeup is lower for pregnant women than for infants, and that it is lower still for children 1 to 4. Our estimates suggest that there is substantial scope for expanding participation by eligibles, which would have significant budgetary implications for the program. A more detailed analysis of WIC participation using state-level administrative data, SIPP, and the CPS suggests that WIC participation is not strongly correlated with state-level economic indicators such as poverty and unemployment rates. Participation is correlated with program rules. States with stricter rules have lower participation, but a striking degree of state-to-state variation in participation rates remains unexplained. Demographic characteristics are predictive of participation. For example, conditional on income and eligibility, it is the less well educated who are most likely to participate. Finally, we present preliminary information showing positive correlations between WIC receipt and children's anthropometric outcomes. These estimates are of interest given the paucity of information about the effects of WIC on children, and the fact that children have the lowest participation rates of any categorically eligible WIC group. http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/irp/dp/dplist-02.htm
Holzer, Harry J., Steven Raphael, and Michael A. Stoll. "Perceived Criminality, Criminal Background Checks, and the Racial Hiring Practices of Employers." DP 1254-02 (June 2002). Abstract: In this paper, we analyze the effect of employer-initiated criminal background checks on the likelihood that employers hire African-Americans. We find that employers who check criminal backgrounds are more like to hire African-American workers, especially among men. This effect is stronger among those employers who report an aversion to hiring those with criminal records than among those who do not. We also find similar effects of employer aversion to ex-offenders and their tendency to check backgrounds on their willingness to hire other stigmatized workers, such as those with gaps in their employment history. These results suggest that, in the absence of criminal background checks, employers discriminate statistically against black men and/or those with weak employment records. Such discrimination appears to contribute substantially to observed employment and earnings gaps between white and black young men. http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/irp/dp/dplist-02.htm
Lall, Somik V., Uwe Deichmann, Mattias K. A. Lundberg, and Nazmul Chaudhury. "Tenure, Diversity, and Commitment: Community Participation for Urban Service Provision." Working Paper No. 2862 (June 2002). Abstract: What factors influence community participation in the delivery of urban services? In particular, does security of tenure enhance the probability of participation as it provides individuals with incentives to act collectively in pursuit of a common objective? And are collective efforts less likely to succeed when there is a high degree of heterogeneity in culture or endowments among community members? Lall, Deichmann, Lundberg, and Chaudhury use household level survey data for Bangalore, India, to show that tenure security has a significant impact on the willingness of residents to participate even when neighborhoods are diverse in terms of their cultural background and welfare status. Their findings suggest that participation is possible in heterogeneous communities when it is a means to a common objective and not a goal by itself. http://econ.worldbank.org/resource.php?type=5
Ajwad, Mohamed Ihsan Ajwad and Pradeep Kurukulasuriya.
"Ethnic and Gender Wage Disparities in Sri Lanka." Working Paper
No. 2859 (June 2002). Abstract: Ajwad and Kurukulasuriya examine
wage inequalities in Sri Lanka’s formal sector using data from the Sri Lanka
Integrated Survey 1999–2000. The study aims to:
• Investigate whether the labor market is characterized by wage disparities
among ethnic and gender groups.
• Identify the determinants of wages and the factors that affect the wage
differential.
• Analyze the determinants of wages across the conditional wage distribution.
• Disaggregate the ethnic or gender wage disparities where observed into a
component affected by the endowment of productive characteristics, as well as a
component affected by the returns to those productive characteristics in the
labor market.
The authors find that ethnicity is not a significant determinant of wages. The
result is robust to different specifications. In addition, ethnicity is not
significant in any of the conditional quantiles estimated. However, there
is gender disparity in wage rates in Sri Lanka. The magnitude of this disparity
varies depending on the worker’s ethnicity. This gender wage disparity varies
by about 10 percent for Tamils and 48 percent among other ethnicities. In
addition, the authors find that much of the gender disparity is not explained by
productive characteristics, implying that discrimination against women may play
a role. The quantile regression estimates indicate that the premium paid to male
workers in the labor force is more pronounced in the upper conditional wage rate
distribution.
http://econ.worldbank.org/resource.php?type=5
Fofack, Hippolyte. "The Nature and Dynamics of Poverty." Working Paper No. 2847 (May 2002). Abstract: Fofack investigates the determinants and dynamics of poverty during the five-year growth period that followed the 1994 CFA franc devaluation in Burkina Faso. Results show that the nature and dynamics of poverty determinants are influenced by the spatial location of households and that the post-devaluation growth period did not significantly alter the pattern of poverty determinants. The most significant determinants of poverty over the growth period include the burden of age dependency, human and physical assets, household amenities, and spatial location. Though consistently significant at the national level, the direction of association between these determinants and welfare depends on their nature. While the burden of age dependency is consistently negatively associated with welfare, asset ownership is positively associated. The probability of being poor declines with increasing share of household assets and increases with the burden of age dependency. There are some variations at the regional level, however, shown by the difference in the scope of significance of these determinants. While the ratio of age dependency remains the most significant determinant of rural poverty, its explanatory power decreases considerably in urban areas where its marginal effect on the probability of being poor is relatively low over the two reference periods, despite the significance of the probit coefficient and the relatively low asymptotic standard error. http://econ.worldbank.org/resource.php?type=5
Datt, Gaurav and Martin Ravallion. "Is India’s Economic Growth Leaving the Poor Behind?" Working Paper No. 2846 (May 2002). Abstract: There has been much debate about how much India’s poor have shared in the economic growth unleashed by economic reforms in the 1990s. Datt and Ravallion argue that India has probably maintained its 1980s rate of poverty reduction in the 1990s. However, there is considerable diversity in performance across states. This holds some important clues for understanding why economic growth has not done more for India’s poor. India’s economic growth in the 1990s has not been occurring in the states where it would have the most impact on poverty nationally. If not for the sectoral and geographic imbalance of growth, the national rate of growth would have generated a rate of poverty reduction that was double India’s historical trend rate. States with relatively low levels of initial rural development and human capital development were not well-suited to reduce poverty in response to economic growth. The study’s results are consistent with the view that achieving higher aggregate economic growth is only one element of an effective strategy for poverty reduction in India. The sectoral and geographic composition of growth is also important, as is the need to redress existing inequalities in human resource development and between rural and urban areas. http://econ.worldbank.org/resource.php?type=5
Fafchamps, Marcel, and Forhad Shilpi. "The Spatial Division of Labor in Nepal." Working Paper No. 2845 (May 2002). Abstract: Fafchamps and Shilpi examine how economic activity and market participation are distributed across space. Applying a nonparametric von Thunen model to Nepalese data, the authors uncover a strong spatial division of labor. Nonfarm employment is concentrated in and around cities, while agricultural wage employment dominates villages located further away. Vegetables are produced near urban centers. Paddy and commercial crops are more important at intermediate distances. Isolated villages revert to self-subsistence. The findings of the study are consistent with the von Thunen model of concentric specialization, corrected to account for city size. Spatial division of labor is closely related to factor endowments and household characteristics, especially at the local level. http://econ.worldbank.org/resource.php?type=5
Compiled by: Felix Bunke - Library Assistant
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and Ecology Information Services
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