McQuestion, Michael. "Exploring Social Interaction and Differentiation Effects in Latin America's Mortality Transition."
2000-15. February 2001. 37 pages.
Abstract: None available.
http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/cde/cdewp/home.htm
Lockwood, M. "Institutional and Cultural Determinants of Demand for Reproductive Health Services in sub-Saharan Africa: A review and implications for research."
00-1. 2001. 56 pages.
Abstract: None available.
http://www.lshtm.ac.uk/eps/cps/cpsrpapr.htm
S. Liu, S. and F.L. MacKellar. “Key Issues of Aging and Social Security in China.” January 2001. 31 pages
Abstract:
In China the problem of aging is only now emerging, however, when the population does start to age, it will do so faster than any population in history. In this
largely descriptive paper, we look at the challenges faced in the areas of old-age pensions, health care and disability services. First, we identify the main institutions involved.
Then we present ad hoc projections of pensions and health spending and the number of disabled persons. Our conclusion is that, unchecked, rising demand in these
sectors has the potential to give China the social insurance spending profile of
a developed country while it is still at the level of development of a poor one. Demography
makes some increases in spending inevitable. However, the most important variables such as coverage of the pension system and the "underlying"
rate of medical spending growth are responsive to policy. The paper concludes with an appeal to policy makers to adopt forward looking strategies now, while there is still time
to develop appropriate policies and institutions.
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/cgi-bin/pubsrch?IR01004
Horlacher, D. "Aging in Japan: Causes and Consequences. Part I: Demographic Issues."
IR-01-008. February 2001. 52 pages.
Abstract:
This paper reviews demographic issues related to the
aging of the population of Japan. Among its findings are the aging of the
Japanese population has little to do with "aging of the baby boom
generation" as in countries such as the United States, because the baby
boom was only three years long. It is rather, almost entirely due to low
fertility. Recent fertility decline in
Japan have reflected not so much declining marital fertility as decline in the
proportion of women of childbearing age who are married. This is due
mostly to rising age at first marriage, although the rising divorce rate also
plays a role. Reluctance of young women to marry
and raise children can be explained in terms of rising opportunity costs,
particularly opportunity costs associated with the labor market. At the same
time that costs of childbearing are rising, the benefits appear to be declining.
A falling share of women report that they expect to rely on their children for
age support and a surprisingly low proportion -- only 9 percent of mothers of
0-14 year olds, as opposed to 40-70 percent in other industrial countries
-report that they derive pleasure from child rearing. While
mortality improvements play a secondary role in population aging (compared to
low fertility), they have potentially significant impacts on health care costs
and the demand for long-term care.
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/cgi-bin/pubsrch?IR01008
Horlacher,
D. "Aging in Japan: Causes and Consequences. Part II: Economic Issues."
IR-01-009. February 2001. 87 pages.
Abstract:
This survey reviews current research on the impact of
present demographic trends -- population aging combined with slower overall
population growth -- on Japan’s economic future. Among the conclusions which
emerge are the following: The traditional
Japanese labor market system of lifetime employment, seniority-based
compensation, and mandatory retirement at an early age is already coming under
pressure due to aging of the labor force. The opportunity costs of distortions
and institutional factors which affect the labor supply of women will rise as
labor becomes scarce. Much of the research
reviewed here has to do with the relationship between population aging and
household savings in Japan. This research has tended (some might say narrowly)
to confirm the relevance of the life cycle hypothesis, leading to the conclusion
that population aging will reduce the household saving rate. There is unanimity
that population aging will negatively affect government balances through the
rising system dependency rate of the public pension system and, less
significantly, rising health care costs. Thus, all projection exercises studied
here have concluded that projected demographic trends will reduce the aggregate
saving rate. Much less attention has been
devoted to investment than to saving. All projection exercises reviewed here
have concluded (or, perhaps more accurately, assumed) that the impact of
demographic trends on investment will be less significant than their impact on
saving, with the result that the current account surplus will diminish,
eventually turning into a deficit. Pension
reform has the potential to defuse the macroeconomic impacts of population
aging, however, given the fact that 70 percent of the income of the elderly
comes from the public pension system, the distributional impacts are likely to
be large. Because four-fifths of public pensions are wage-indexed, pension
system contribution rates are essentially delinked from productivity growth
under current arrangements. Another way of looking at this is that, as
population aging raises wage rates, pensions rise pari
passu and contribution rates must rise as
well. One of the most crucial steps towards defusing the economic impact of
population aging would be to link pensions to prices as opposed to wages.
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/cgi-bin/pubsrch?IR01009
Fraboni, Romina and Francesco C. Billari.“Measure and dynamics of marriage squeezes: from baby boom to baby bust in Italy.” February 2001. 44 pages
Abstract:
Significant changes in the propensity to marry, together with baby booms, busts and migrations shape the marriage market. Big changes in the level of fertility may affect, some decades later, the opportunities of marriage of
eligible individuals, creating a marriage squeeze.
Italy provides an interesting case study because since World War II, it has been characterised by alternate periods of declines and rises of the annual
number of births and by their differential patterns between regions. In this paper we study the dynamics of the Italian marriage market (years
1960-1995) by using some indexes proposed by Schoen as well as two additional
measures. The results of regional analysis also suggest that marriage squeeze has also been shaped by internal migratory movements.
The recent and prolonged phase of steep fertility decline in Italy, together with the drop of interregional movements, suggests the
possibility of a perspective increasing disadvantage of men in the marriage market.
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Papers/PapersPres.htm#Work
Hatton , Timothy J. and Jeffrey G. Williamson. “Demographic and Economic Pressure on Emigration Out of Africa” NBER February 2001. 34 pages
Abstract:
Two of the main forces driving European emigration in the late nineteenth century were real wage gaps between sending and receiving regions and
demographic booms in the low-wage sending regions (directly augmenting the
supply of potential movers as well as indirectly making already-measured employment conditions less attractive).
These two features are even more prominent in Africa today, but do or can Africans respond to them with the
same elasticity as in the days of 'free'
migration? Our new estimates of net migration and labor market performance for
the countries of sub-Saharan Africa suggest that exactly the same forces are at work driving African
across-border migration today.
Rapid growth in the cohort of young potential migrants, population pressure on the resource base, and poor economic performance are the
main forces driving African migration. A century ago, more modest demographic forces in Europe were accompanied by strong catching-up economic growth in the
low-wage emigrant regions, followed by a
slowdown in already-modest demographic growth. Yet, migrations were still mass. In Africa today, economic growth has faltered, its economies have fallen further behind the high-wage
OECD leaders, and there is a demographic
speed up in the making. Our estimates suggest that the pressure one migration out of Africa will intensify, manifested in part by a growing demand for entrance into high-wage
OECD labor markets.
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W8124
Glaeser, Edward L. and Matthew E. Kahn. “Decentralized Employment and the Transformation of the American City.” NBER#8117.February 2001.69 pages.
Abstract:
This paper examines the decentralization of employment using zip code data on employment by industry. Most American cities are decentralized on average less than 16 percent of employment in metropolitan areas is within
a three mile radius of the city center.
In decentralized cities, the classic stylized facts of urban economics (i.e.
prices fall with distance to the city center, commute times rise with distance and poverty falls with distance) no
longer hold. Decentralization is most common in manufacturing and least common in services. The human capital level of
an industry predicts its centralization,
but the dominant factor explaining decentralization is the residential
preferences of workers. Political borders also impact employment density which suggests that local government
policies significantly influence the location
of industry.
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W8117
Devroye, Dan and Richard B. Freeman. "Does Inequality in Skills Explain Inequality in Earnings Across Advanced Countries?"
#8140. February 2001. 35 pages.
Abstract:
The distribution of earnings and the distribution of skills vary widely among advanced countries, with the major English-speaking countries, the US, UK, and Canada, having much greater inequality in both earnings and skills than continental European Union countries. This raises the possibility that cross-country differences in the distribution of skills determine cross-country differences in earnings inequality. Using the International Adult Literacy Survey, we find that skill inequality explains only about 7% of the cross-country difference in inequality. Most striking, the dispersion of earnings in the US is larger in narrowly defined skill groups than is the dispersion of earnings for European workers overall. The bulk of cross-country differences in earnings inequality occur within skill groups, not between them.
http://papers.nber.org/papers/W8140
Bumpass, Larry. "Family-Related Attitudes, Couple Relationships, and Union Stability."
NSFH 87. 2000. 30 pages.
Abstract:
Using data from the National Survey of Families and Households, attitudes and behaviors measured at the first interview are used to predict the disruption of unions
between 1987-88 and 1992-94. The analysis is structured in terms of three conceptual distinctions. An index of "conservative family attitudes" is
constructed from items relating to approval of premarital sex, childbearing, cohabitation, independence in marriage, and divorce. Couples' relationships are characterized in terms of
behaviors likely to affect union stability, and in terms of evaluations of their relationships. These measures are then entered sequentially into multivariate hazard models
predicting separation before the second interview. Strong effects on union disruption are found for each of the variables examined, net of background measures, and net of other variables within the same conceptual
set. The effects of patterns of interaction are largely captured by the evaluation measures. Two sets of the union evaluations are examined separately. The first set
includes a measure of relationship happiness, perceptions of whether life would be better or worse were separation to occur, and whether the relationship was seen
as unfair to the respondent. The second set is composed of two variables that are more directly a part of the disruption process: whether a relationship was seen as
"in trouble," and perceptions of the likelihood of separation. Conservative attitudes toward family issues have a modest indirect effect through relationship quality, and
a strong direct effect on disruption net of the other variables. Effects of religiosity are substantially mediated by the value measures, but also maintain independent
effects. These results are consistent with expectations that both secularization and value change involving an increasing tolerance of new family forms are likely
important in the transformation of family life, albeit reciprocally related to new family behaviors.
http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/cde/nsfhwp/home.htm
Coppel, Jonathan, Jean-Christophe Dumond and Ignazio Visco.“Trends in immigration and economic consequences.” No.284. February 2001. 31 pages
Abstract:
This paper reviews immigration trends and their economic impacts in a number of OECD countries. While migration systems present similarities across
countries, institutional arrangements vary widely and impact on the size and composition of migration flows. Some of the main factors
driving immigration are then briefly discussed. The paper also considers the economic, fiscal and social implications of immigration. The study suggests
that immigration can confer small net gains to the host country. However, the benefits are not necessarily evenly distributed and some groups, in particular
those whose labour is substitutable with immigrants may lose, calling for a smooth working of labour and product markets in OECD countries. The paper also
claims that, while migration can partly offset slower growing or declining OECD populations, it cannot provide by itself a solution to the budgetary
implications of ageing populations. Finally, the paper touches on some development issues, such as the potential gains from emigration in source
countries and the role host countries can play in reducing immigration pressures through more open markets and greater transfers of technology.
http://www.olis.oecd.org/olis/2001doc.nsf/linkto/eco-wkp(2001)10
Kao, Chihwa."Asymptotic Inference in Censored Regression Models Revisited February 2001. No. 36. 14 pages
Abstract:
This paper establishes that regressors in the models with censored dependent variables need not be bounded for the standard asymptotic results to
apply. Thus regressors which grow monotonically with the observation index may be acceptable. It also purports to provide an upper bound on the rate at which
regressors may grow. We show that if for all t, then min T T t t t x x =1 l ®¥ å is a sufficient condition for the consistency and asymptotic normality of the MLE in censored
regression models, which are different from those used by Amemiya (1973). For the case of growing regressors, we show that the sufficient conditions for the
consistency and asymptotic normality of the MLE are ( ) 2 t x logt =o and min, T T t t t x x cT a =1 l ³ å for some 0 a and c 0, but only
for one-half of the parameter space. The admissible growth rate given above implies that the Fisher Information matrix diverges, which seems to be an
indispensable requirement for asymptotic inference for the censored regression models. More importantly, it represents a critical upper bound in the Fisher
information matrix if it is exceeded monotonically. It also implies that (1,) T t x t = in Judge et al. (1985:791) for the Tobit is not admissible.
http://www-cpr.maxwell.syr.edu/cprwps/wps36abs.htm
Sinha, Nistha. "Explaining the "Up-to-God" Response to Desired Family Size
Question." 01-1. 2001. 64 pages.
Abstract:
Respondents in developing countries frequently give a nonnumeric
("Up-to-God") response to the desired family size question asked in
fertility surveys. In literature, nonnumeric respondents are viewed as fatalists
or as those who consider family size to be beyond the realm of conscious choice
and are usually excluded from analysis. This paper models nonnumeric response as
a discrete choice problem based on respondents’ comparison of their demand for
and supply of children. The hypothesis is that respondents give nonnumeric
response if their desired demand for children exceeds their potential supply of
children. Dropping nonnumeric respondents from analysis would thus eliminate an
important aspect of fertility behavior in developing countries. Resulting
estimates of demand for children will be subject to selection bias. Data on
husbands and wives from Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (1993-94) are
used to assess the validity of the supply-constrained hypothesis. Univariate
probits are estimated which enable estimation of each spouse’s likelihood of
giving nonnumeric response. Joint husband-wife likelihood of giving nonnumeric
response is estimated using bivariate probit which allows for within-couple
correlation of unobserved variables. Results obtained are consistent with the
supply-constrained explanation proposed in the paper. Husbands are more likely
to give a nonnumeric response than wives are. Paper discusses implication of
these results for analysis of couples’ demand for children in developing
countries.
http://csde.washington.edu/csde/wps/wps.html
Wood, James W., Darryl J. Holman, Kathleen A. O'Connor, Rebecca J. Ferrell.
"Mortality Models for Paleodemography." 01-2. 2001. 54
pages.
Abstract: None available.
http://csde.washington.edu/csde/wps/wps.html
Wood, James W., Brindle, Susannah, Kathleen A. O'Connor, Darryl J. Holman, Eleanor H.
Barsom, Michael A. Grimes. "The Evolution of Menopause by Antagonistic
Pleiotropy." 01-4. 2001. 18 pages.
Abstract:
Recent endocrinological findings concerning the role of follicular depletion in
the regulation of ovarian cycles suggest a new hypothesis for the evolution of
the menopause. Follicular depletion, the apoptotic process that ultimately
causes menopause, occurs throughout premenopausal life and is integral to the
set of hormonal feedback relationships that maintain regular cycles. The
characteristics of the follicular-depletion system that determine the age at
menopause, including the size of the initial follicle reserve and the rate of
atresia, are important for ovarian cycles at younger reproductive ages and
appear to be highly conserved between humans and chimpanzees (which do not
normally experience menopause in the wild). We suggest that menopause and
post-menopausal life do not confer evolutionary benefits in themselves, but
rather evolved by anagonistic pleiotropy because of selection operating on the
follicular-depletion system to maintain regular ovarian cycles at young adult
ages.
http://csde.washington.edu/csde/wps/wps.html
Compiled by: Pamela Jackson - Library Assistant
Center for Demography and Ecology Information Services
Rm. 4471 Social Science Building
1180 Observatory Drive
Madison, WI 53706-1393 USA
Email: pjackson@ssc.wisc.edu