Zoghi, Cindy. "The Distribution of Decision Rights within the Workplace: Evidence from Canadian, Australian, and UK Establishments." WP-363. Abstract: The optimal allocation of decision rights in an organization reflects a trade-off between the costs of transferring relevant information within the hierarchy and the costs that occur when decision-making agents have different objectives than the principal. This paper is a first attempt to quantitatively analyze the allocation of decision rights within the workplace. I use detailed questions on decision-making from three separate data sets to measure the decentralization of decision rights within the hierarchy, to determine what establishment characteristics are related to the location of decision rights, and to examine what human resource practices are correlated with centralization. http://www.bls.gov/ore/orecatlg.htm
Schachter, Jason P. and Jeffrey J. Kuenzi. "Seasonality of Moves and The Duration and Tenure of Residence: 1996." Population Division Working Paper Series No. 69. http://www.census.gov/population/www/techpap.html
Engelhardt, Henriette and Alexia Prskawetz. "On the changing correlation between fertility and female employment over space and time." WP-2002-052. Abstract: Various authors find that in OECD countries the cross-country correlation between the total fertility rate and the female labor force participation rate turned from a negative value before the 1980s to a positive value thereafter. Based on pooled cross-sectional data, Kögel (2002) shows that (a) unmeasured country-specific factors and (b) country-heterogeneity in the magnitude of the negative time-series association accounts for the reversal in the sign of the cross-country correlation coefficient. Our paper aims to identify those variables that may explain country heterogeneity in the negative association between fertility and female labor force participation. The selection of variables is based on existing macro demographic theories. We apply aggregate descriptive representations of the time series and cross-country evolution of fertility, female employment and a set of labor market, educational and demographic variables and indicators of social policy. http://www.demogr.mpg.de/?http://www.demogr.mpg.de/Publications/working.htm
Currie, Janet, Mehdi Farsi, and W. Bentley MacLeod. "Cut to the Bone? Hospital Takeovers and Nurse Employment Contracts." NBER Working Paper No.w9428. Abstract: This paper uses data from the 1990s to examine changes in the wages, employment, and effort of nurses in California hospitals following takeovers by large chains. The market for nurses has been described as a classic monopsony, so that one might expect increases in firm market power to be associated with declines in wages. However, we show that if one extends the monopsony model to consider effort, or if we apply a basic contracting model to the data, then we would expect to see effects on effort rather than on wages. This prediction is bourne out by the data nurses see few declines in wages following takeovers, but see increases in the number of patients per nurse, our measure of effort. We also find that these changes are similar in the largest for-profit and non-profit chains, suggesting that market forces are more more important than institutional form. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Autor, David H., John J. Donohue III, and Stewart J. Schwab. "The Costs of Wrongful-Discharge Laws." NBER Working Paper No.w9425. Abstract: We estimate the effects on employment and wages of wrongful-discharge protections in the United States. Over the last three decades, most U.S. state courts have adopted one or more common law wrongful discharge doctrines that limit employers' discretion to terminate workers at-will. Using this cross-state variation with a difference-in-difference framework, we find robust evidence of a modest negative impact ( 0.8 to 1.6 percentage points) of one wrongful-discharge doctrine, the implied-contract exception, on employment to population rates in state labor markets. The short-term impact is most pronounced for female, younger, and less-skilled workers, while the longer term costs appear to be borne by older and more-educated workers those most likely to litigate under this doctrine. We find no robust employment or wage effects of two other widely recognized wrongful-discharge laws: the public -policy and good-faith exceptions. Published findings in the literature range from no effect to very large negative effects. We reanalyze the two leading studies and find the discrepancies can be explained by methodological shortcomings in the one case and limitations in the coding of key court decisions in the other. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Levitt, Steven D. "How Do Markets Function? An Empirical Analysis of Gambling on the National Football League." NBER Working Paper No.w9422. Abstract: The market for sports gambling is structured very differently than the typical financial market. In sports betting, bookmakers announce a price, after which adjustments are small and infrequent. As a consequence, bookmakers do not play the traditional role of market makers whose primary function is to match buyers and sellers, but rather, take large positions with respect to the outcome of game. Using a unique data set that includes both prices and quantities of bets placed over the course of an NFL season, I demonstrate that this peculiar price-setting mechanism allows bookmakers to achieve substantially higher profits than would be possible if they played the role of the typical market maker. Bookmakers are more skilled at predicting the outcomes of games than bettors and are able to systematically exploit bettor biases by choosing prices that deviate from the market clearing price. While this strategy exposes the bookmaker to risk on any particular game, in aggregate the risk borne is minimal. Bookmaker profit maximization provides a simple explanation for heretofore puzzling deviations from market efficiency that were observed in past empirical work. I find little evidence that there exist bettors who are systematically able to beat the bookmaker, even given the distorted prices that bookmakers set. The results concerning whether aggregating across bettor preferences improves the ability to forecast outcomes are inconclusive. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Krueger, Alan B. and Pei Zhu. "Another Look at the New York City School Voucher Experiment." NBER Working Paper No.w9418. Abstract: This paper reexamines data from the New York City school choice program, the largest and best implemented private school scholarship experiment yet conducted. In the experiment, low-income public school students in grades K-4 were eligible to participate in a series of lotteries for a private school scholarship in May 1997. Data were collected from students and their parents at baseline, and in the Spring of each of the next three years. Students with missing baseline test scores, which encompasses all those who were initially in Kindergarten and 11 percent of those initially in grades 1-4, were excluded from previous analyses of achievement, even though these students were tested in the follow-up years. In principle, random assignment would be expected to lead treatment status to be uncorrelated with all baseline characteristics. Including students with missing baseline test scores increases the sample size by 44 percent. For African American students, the only group to show a significant, positive effect of vouchers on achievement in past studies, the difference in average follow-up test scores between the treatment group (those offered a voucher) and control group (those not offered a voucher) becomes statistically insignificant at the .05 level and much smaller if the full sample is used. In addition, the effect of vouchers is found to be sensitive to the particular way race/ethnicity was defined. Previously, race was assigned according to the racial/ethnic category of the child's mother. If children with a Black (non-Hispanic) father are added to the sample of children with a Black (non-Hispanic) mother, the effect of vouchers is smaller and statistically insignificant at conventional levels. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Jacob, Brian A. and Steven D. Levitt. "Catching Cheating Teachers: The Reuslts of an Unusual Experiment in Implementing Theory." NBER Working Paper No.w9414. Abstract: This paper reports on the results of a prospective implementation of methods for detecting teacher cheating. In Spring 2002, over 100 Chicago Public Schools elementary classrooms were selected for retesting based on the cheating detection algorithm. Classrooms prospectively identified as likely cheaters experienced large test score declines. In contrast, classes that had large test score gains on the original test, but were prospectively identified as being unlikely to have cheated, maintained their original gains. Randomly selected classrooms also maintained their gains. The cheating detection tools were thus demonstrated to be effective in distinguishing between classrooms that achieved large test-score gains as a consequence of cheating versus those whose gains were the result of outstanding teaching. In addition, the data generated by the implementation experiment highlight numerous ways in which the original cheating detection methods can be improved in the future. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Jacob, Brian A. and Steven D. Levitt. "Rotten Apples: An Investigation of the Prevalence and Predictors of Teacher Cheating." NBER Working Paper No.w9413. Abstract: We develop an algorithm for detecting teacher cheating that combines information on unexpected test score fluctuations and suspicious patterns of answers for students in a classroom. Using data from the Chicago Public Schools, we estimate that serious cases of teacher or administrator cheating on standardized tests occur in a minimum of 4-5 percent of elementary school classrooms annually. Moreover, the observed frequency of cheating appears to respond strongly to relatively minor changes in incentives. Our results highlight the fact that incentive systems, especially those with bright line rules, often induce behavioral distortions such as cheating. Statistical analysis, however, may provide a means of detecting illicit acts, despite the best attempts of perpetrators to keep them clandestine. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Alberto Alesina, Alberto, Arnaud Devleeschauwer, William Easterly, Sergio Kurlat, Romain Wacziarg. "Fractionalization." NBER Working Paper No.w9411. Abstract: We provide new measures of ethnic, linguistic and religious fractionalization for about 190 countries. These measures are more comprehensive than those previously used in the economics literature and we compare our new variables with those previously used. We also revisit the question of the effects of ethnic, linguistic and religious fractionalization on quality of institutions and growth. We partly confirm and partly modify previous results. The patterns of cross-correlations between potential explanatory variables and their different degree of endogeneity makes it hard to make unqualified statements about competing explanations for economic growth and the quality of government. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Krueger, Dirk and Krishna B. Kumar. "Skill-specific rather then General Education: A Reason for US-Europe Growth Differences?" NBER Working Paper No.w9408. Abstract: In this paper, we develop a model of technology adoption and economic growth in which households optimally obtain either a concept-based, "general" education or a skill-specific, "vocational" education. General education is more costly to obtain, but enables workers to operate new technologies incorporated into production. Firms weigh the cost of adopting and operating new technologies against increased revenues and optimally choose the level of adoption. We show that an economy whose policies favor vocational education will grow slower in equilibrium than one that favors general education. Moreover, the gap between their growth rates will increase with the growth rate of available technology. By characterizing the optimal Ramsey education subsidy policy we demonstrate that the optimal subsidy for general education increases with the growth rate of available technology. Our theory suggests that European education policies that favored specialized, vocational education might have worked well, both in terms of growth rates and welfare, during the 60s and 70s when available technologies changed slowly. In the information age of the 80s and 90s when new technologies emerged at a more rapid pace, however, it may have suboptimally contributed to slow growth and may have increased the growth gap relative to the US. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Gruber, Jonathan and David A. Wise. "Social Security Programs and Retirement Around the World: Micro Estimation." NBER Working Paper No.w9407. Abstract: This is the introduction to and summary of the second stage of a international research project to study the relationship between social security provisions and retirement. The project relies on the analyses of a large group of economists in 12 countries who conduct the analysis for each of their countries. In the first stage we documented the enormous disincentives for continued work at older ages in many countries. The introduction to the first volume from the project concluded with a striking graph showing a strong relationship across countries between social security program incentives to retire and the proportion of older persons out of the labor force. The results in this volume show the large magnitude of these effects. Across 12 countries with very different social security programs and labor market institutions, the results consistently show that program incentives accord strongly with retirement decisions. The magnitude is illustrated by the simulations reported in each country paper. Considering the average across all countries, a reform that delays benefit eligibility by three years would likely reduce the proportion of men 56 to 65 out of the labor force between 23 and 36 percent, perhaps closer to 36 percent in the long run. On the other hand, an illustrative common reform'-- with early retirement at age 60, normal retirement age 65, and actuarial reduction in benefits between 65 and 60--has very disparate effects across the countries, depending on the provisions of the current program in each country. There is a strong correspondence between the simulation results and a priori expectations. The results leave little doubt that social security incentives have a strong effect on retirement decisions. And the estimates show that the effect is similar in countries with very different cultural histories, labor market institutions, and other social characteristics. While countries may differ in many respects, the employees in all countries react similarly to social security retirement incentives. The simulated effects of illustrative reforms reported in the country papers make clear that changes in the provisions of social security programs would have very large effects on the labor force participation of older employees. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Joyce, Theodore, Robert Kaestner, and Sanders Korenman. "Welfare Reform and Non-Marital Fertility in the 1990s: Evidence from Birth Records." NBER Working Paper No.w9406. Abstract: The 1996 Personal Responsibility Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act dramatically altered the economic incentive to bear children out-of-wedlock for economically disadvantaged women or couples most likely to avail themselves of welfare programs. We use data from vital statistics and a difference-in-differences research design to investigate whether state and federal welfare reform in the 1990s reduced rates of non-marital childbearing among women aged 19 to 39 at highest risk of welfare use, relative to women at lower risk. We find little consistent evidence for an effect of welfare reform on non-marital childbearing. This finding is similar to the literature that found little or mixed evidence for an effect of AFDC benefits. If anything, federal welfare reform has been associated with a small positive effect of two to three percent for white and black women ages 19 to 39. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
LoSasso, Anthony T. and Thomas C. Buchmueller. "The Effect of the State Children's Health Insurance Program on Health Insurance Coverage." NBER Working Paper No.w9405. Abstract: This paper presents the first national estimates of the effects of the SCHIP expansions on insurance coverage. Using CPS data on insurance coverage during the years 1996 through 2000, we estimate two-stage least squares regressions of insurance coverage. We find that SCHIP had a small, but statistically significant positive effect on insurance coverage. Our regression results imply that between 4% and 10% of children meeting income eligibility standards for the new program gained public insurance. While low, these estimates indicate that states were more successful in enrolling children in SCHIP than they were with prior Medicaid expansions focused on children just above the poverty line. Crowd-out of private health insurance was estimated to be in line with estimates for the Medicaid expansions of the early 1990s, between 18% and 50%. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Gustman, Alan L. and Thomas L. Steinmeier. "Retirement and the Stock Market Bubble." NBER Working Paper No.w9404. Abstract: This paper specifies and estimates a structural dynamic stochastic model of the way individuals make retirement and saving choices in an uncertain world, and applies that model to analyze the effects of the stock market bubble on retirement behavior. The model includes individual variation both in retirement preferences and in time preferences. Estimates are based on information covering the period 1992 through 2000 from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a panel survey of retirement age respondents and their spouses. The extraordinary returns in the stock market in the late 1990's, which more than doubled stock prices and unexpectedly increased the value of a mixed portfolio by nearly 60 percent, increased retirement for the HRS sample of workers by over 3 percentage points by the turn of the century and would have decreased the average retirement age by about a quarter of a year if it had not been interrupted. The subsequent decline in the market, which very nearly wiped out the gains that had been made during the preceding surge, effectively neutralized the effect of the preceding stock market gains on retirement. The effects of the bubble were to increase retirement as long as the bubble continued, but any continuing effects of the bubble after its end will probably be minimal. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Dynarski, Susan. "The Consequences of Merit Aid." NBER Working Paper No.w9400. Abstract: Since the early Nineties, a dozen states have established broad-based merit aid programs. The typical program waives tuition and fees at public colleges and universities in one's home state. Unlike traditional merit programs, such as the National Merit Scholarship, this aid requires relatively modest academic performance and provide scholarships to hundreds of thousands of students. This paper examines how merit aid programs in seven states have affected an array of schooling decisions, paying particular attention to how the effects have varied by race and ethnicity. I find that the new programs typically increase the attendance probability of college-age youth by five to seven percentage points. The merit programs also shift students toward four-year schools and away from two-year schools. The Georgia HOPE Scholarship, which has been found to widen racial gaps in college attendance (Dynarski, 2000) is atypical in its distributional impact, with the other state's programs tending to have a more positive effect on the college attendance rate of Blacks and Hispanics. I attribute HOPE's unique distributional effect to its relatively stringent academic requirements and a recently-eliminated provision that channeled the most generous scholarships to higher-income students. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Bennett, Neil G., Hsien-Hen Lu, and Younghwan Song. "Welfare Reform and Changes in the Economic Well-Being of Children." NBER Working Paper No.w9399. Abstract: Since the implementation of the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program in late-1996, welfare rolls have declined by more than half. This paper explores whether improvements in the economic well-being of children have accompanied this dramatic reduction in welfare participation. Further, we examine the degree to which the success or failure of welfare reform has been shared equally among families of varying educational background. We analyze data from the March Current Population Surveys over the years 1988 through 2001. Specifically, we link data for families with children who are interviewed in adjacent years and determine whether their economic circumstances either improved or deteriorated. We use two alternative approaches to address this general issue: a variety of regression models and a difference-in-differences methodology. These approaches provide consistent answers. In a bivariate framework TANF is associated with higher incomes; but this association becomes insignificant in the presence of business cycle controls. We also determine that children who were poor at an initial time period benefit differently, depending on their parents' educational attainment level. Poor children with parents who do not have a high school degree are significantly worse off in the TANF era, relative to the era prior to welfare reform, than are their more educated counterparts. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Costa, Dora L. and Matthew E. Kahn. "Changes in the Value of Life: 1940-1980." NBER Working Paper No.w9396. Abstract: We present the first nation wide value of life estimates for the United States at more than one point in time. Our estimates are for every ten years between 1940 and 1980, a period when declines in fatal accident rates were historically unprecedented. Our estimated elasticity of value of life with respect to per capita GNP is 1.5 to 1.7. We illustrate the importance of rising value of life for policy evaluation by examining the benefits of improved longevity since 1900, showing that the current marginal increase in longevity is more valuable than the large increase in the first half of the twentieth century. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Chou, Shin-Yi, Jin-Tan Liu, and James K. Hammitt. "Health Insurance and Households' Precautionary Behaviors - An Unusual Natural Experiment." NBER Working Paper No.w9394. Abstract: By reducing risk of large out-of-pocket medical expenses, comprehensive social health insurance may reduce households' motivation to engage in precautionary behaviors such as saving, procurement of private insurance, and spousal labor-force participation. We use the natural experiment provided by the 1995 introduction of National Health Insurance in Taiwan to examine these effects, using pre-existing differences in access to health insurance (tied to the household head's and spouse's joint employment status) to identify the effects of increasing insurance coverage. We find that comprehensive health insurance has a statistically significant and large effect on household savings and purchase of private accident insurance, but no significant effect on spousal employment. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Angrist, Joshua D. and Victor Lavy. "The Effect of High School Matriculation Awards: Evidence from Randomized Trials." NBER Working Paper No.w9389. Abstract: In Israel, as in many other countries, a high school matriculation certificate is required by universities and some jobs. In spite of the certificate's value, Israeli society is marked by vast differences in matriculation rates by region and socioeconomic status. We attempted to increase the likelihood of matriculation among low-achieving students by offering substantial cash incentives in two demonstration programs. As a theoretical matter, cash incentives may be helpful if low-achieving students reduce investment in schooling because of high discount rates, part-time work, or face peer pressure not to study. A small pilot program selected individual students within schools for treatment, with treatment status determined by previous test scores and a partially randomized cutoff for low socioeconomic status. In a larger follow-up program, entire schools were randomly selected for treatment and the program operated with the cooperation of principals and teachers. The results suggest the Achievement Awards program that randomized treatment at the school level raised matriculation rates, while the student-based program did not. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Fernandez-Villaverd, Jesus and Dirk Krueger. "Consumption over the Life Cycle: Facts from Consumer Expenditure Survey Data." NBER Working Paper No.w9382. Abstract: This paper uses a seminonparametric model and Consumer Expenditure Survey data to estimate life cycle profiles of consumption, controlling for demographics, cohort and time e.ects. In addition to documenting profiles for total and nondurable consumption, we devote special attention to the age expenditure pattern for consumer durables. We find hump-shaped paths over the life cycle for total, for nondurable and for durable expenditures. Changes in household size account for roughly half of these humps. The other half remains unaccounted for by the standard complete markets life cycle model. Our results imply that households do not smooth consumption over their lifetimes. This is especially true for services from consumer durables. Bootstrap simulations suggest that our empirical estimates are tight and sensitivity analysis indicates that the computed profiles are robust to a large number of different specifications. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Dekle, Robert. "The Deteriorating Fiscal Situation and an Aging Population." NBER Working Paper No.w9367. Abstract: Japan's deteriorating fiscal situation has attracted international attention. I assess what current Japanese government policies mean for the future of public debt and the economy in general, given the inevitable aging of the population. I review how Japan got into this current fiscal mess, and then perform an analysis of some debt dynamics. With unchanged fiscal policies, Japan's public debt will rise to between 260% and 380% of GDP in 2030, and to between 700% and 1300% in 2040 -- clearly unsustainable levels. For the debt to be sustainable, significant increases in taxes, or cuts in government spending are necessary. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Hugget, Mark, Gustavo Ventura, and Amir Yaron. "Human Capital and Earnings Distribution Dynamics." NBER Working Paper No.w9366. Abstract: Mean earnings and measures of earnings dispersion and skewness all increase in US data over most of the working life-cycle for a typical cohort as the cohort ages. We show that a benchmark human capital model can replicate these properties from the right distribution of initial human capital and learning ability. These distributions have the property that learning ability must differ across agents and that learning ability and initial human capital are positively correlated. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
White, Michelle J. "Explaining the Flood of Asbestos Litigation: Consolidation, Bifurcation, and Bouquet Trials." NBER Working Paper No.w9362. Abstract: The number of asbestos personal injury claims filed each year is in the hundreds of thousands and has been increasing rather than decreasing over time, even though asbestos stopped being used in the early 1970's. Eighty firms have filed for bankruptcy due to asbestos liabilities including 30 filings since the beginning of 2000. This paper examines why asbestos claims are increasing over time. Because large numbers of asbestos claims are filed in particular courts, judges in these courts have adopted procedural innovations intended to clear their dockets by encouraging mass settlements. These innovations cause trial outcomes to change in plaintiffs' favor. As a result, the innovations make the asbestos crisis worse by giving plaintiffs' lawyers an incentive to file large numbers of additional claims in the same courts. The paper uses a new dataset of asbestos trials to test the hypothesis that three important procedural innovations--consolidated trials, bifurcation, and bouquet trials--favor plaintiffs and therefore encourage the filing of additional claims. I find that bifurcation and bouquet trials nearly triple plaintiffs' expected return from trial, while consolidations of up to seven lawsuits raise plaintiffs' expected return from trial by one- third to one-half. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Nordhaus, William D. "The Economic Consequences of a War in Iraq." NBER Working Paper No.w9361. Abstract: Much has been written about the national-security aspects of a potential conflict with Iraq, but there are no studies of the cost. A review of several past wars indicates that nations historically have consistently underestimated the cost of military conflicts. This study reviews the potential costs of a conflict including the postwar expenses that might be required for occupation, humanitarian assistance, reconstruction, nation-building along with the implications for oil markets and macroeconomic activity. It considers two potential scenarios that span the potential outcomes, ranging from a short and relatively conflict-free case to protracted conflict with difficult and expensive postwar reconstruction and occupation. The estimates of the cost to the United States over the decade following hostilities range from $100 billion to $1.9 trillion. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Currie, Janet and Enrico Moretti. "Mother's Education and the Intergenerational Transmission of Human Capital: Evidence from College Openings and Longitudinal Data." NBER Working Paper No.w9360. Abstract: We estimate the effect of maternal education on birth outcomes using data from the Vital Statistics Natality files for 1970 to 1999. We also assess the importance of four potential channels through which maternal education may improve birth outcomes: use of prenatal care, smoking behavior, marriage, and fertility. In an effort to account for unobserved characteristics of women that could induce spurious correlation, we pursue two distinct empirical strategies. First, we construct panel data by linking women in different years of the Vital Statistics records and examine the effects of changes in education on changes in birth outcomes. Second, we have compiled a new data set on openings of two and four year colleges between 1940 and 1990. We use data about the availability of colleges in the woman's county in her 17th year as an instrument for maternal education Our findings using the two approaches are similar. Higher maternal education improves infant health, as measured by birthweight and gestational age. It also increases the probability that a new mother is married, reduces parity, increases use of prenatal care, and reduces smoking, suggesting that these are important pathways for the ultimate effect on health. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Altonji, Joseph G., Todd E. Elder, and Christopher R. Taber. "An Evaluation of Instrumental Variable Strategies for Estimating the Effects of Catholic Schools." NBER Working Paper No.w9358. Abstract: Several previous studies have relied on religious affiliation and the proximity to Catholic schools as exogenous sources of variation for identifying the effect of Catholic schooling on a wide variety of outcomes. Using three separate approaches, we examine the validity of these instrumental variables. We find that none of the candidate instruments is a useful source of identification of the Catholic school effect, at least in currently available data sets. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Gerdtham, Ulf-G. and Christopher J. Ruhm. "Deaths Rise in Good Economic Times: Evidence From the OECD." NBER Working Paper No.w9357. Abstract: This study uses aggregate data for 23 OECD countries over the 1960-1997 period to examine the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and fatalities. The main finding is that total mortality and deaths from several common causes increase when labor markets strengthen. For instance, controlling for year effects, location fixed effects, country-specific time trends and demographic characteristics, a one percentage point decrease in the national unemployment rate is associated with a 0.4 percent rise in total mortality and 0.4, 1.1, 1.8, 2.1 and 0.8 percent increases in deaths from cardiovascular disease, influenza/pneumonia, liver disease, motor vehicle fatalities and other accidents. These results are consistent with the findings of other recent research and cast doubt on the hypothesis that economic downturns have negative effects on physical health. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Stephens, Melvin Jr. "Paycheck Receipt and the Timing of Consumption." NBER Working Paper No.w9356. Abstract: This paper examines the consumption response to monthly paycheck receipt. Since the amount and arrival date of paychecks are known in advance, the receipt of a paycheck does not coincide with the receipt of new information. Under the basic rational expectations Life-Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis, household consumption should not respond to paycheck arrival. Using data from the United Kingdom's Family Expenditure Survey, this paper finds that household consumption is excessively sensitive to paycheck receipt. The results cannot be explained by any underlying monthly expenditure fluctuations common to all households. The presence of liquidity constraints as measured by wealth can account for the excess sensitivity results although the availability of credit cards cannot. http://www.nber.org/new.html#latest
Coolahan, John. "Teacher Education and the Teaching Career in an Era of Lifelong Learning." Education Working Paper No. 2. Abstract: This paperattempts to position the teaching career within the context of the changing policy paradigm of lifelong learning. The paper locates the emergence of this policy within some of the fundamental social and economic changes which are re-shaping contemporary society. It emphasises that society's requirement of a highly educated, well trained, committed and effective teaching force was never more urgent. While the demands being made of teachers have been increasing greatly, there are disturbing indications that in some countries key factors needed to underpin a qualitative teaching profession are under stress. The paper reviews problems, trends and developments in key areas affecting teacher education and the teaching career, from recruitment to conditions of work. The final section of the paper proposes guidelines for action to ensure that a systematic and coherent policy prevails to support the teaching career into the future. The paper concludes that a robust and comprehensive policy for the teaching career needs to be a priority for governments, and that the teaching profession should be consulted on policy formulation and implementation. http://www.oecd.org/EN/documents/0,,EN-documents-0-nodirectorate-no-10-no-0,00.html
Santiago, Paulo. "Teacher Demand and Supply: Improving Teaching Quality and Addressing Teacher Shortages - A Literature Review and a Conceptual Framework for Future Work." Education Working Paper No. 1. Abstract: This paper provides an extensive review of the most relevant issues involved in the management of teacher demand and supply at the pre-tertiary level. First, it proposes a conceptual framework for distinguishing among, defining and relating the different relevant factors. Second, it identifies trends and policy concerns regarding the quality of the teaching workforce across the OECD area. Third, it provides an account of current empirical evidence on numerous aspects (e.g. class size, reward structure, working conditions, teacher education, certification procedures, organisation of schools, evaluation systems, structure of labour market, teaching and learning practices) impacting on the teaching profession. Some concerns about maintaining an adequate supply of good quality teachers emerge. It is the case that in a great number of countries the age profile of teachers is skewed towards the older end of the age-range and signs point to a recent worsening of the situation. In addition, the relative attractiveness of the profession, as far as the salary dimension is concerned, has declined substantially in the most recent years. Other evidence indicates that, at least in some countries, a substantial share of the teaching workforce does not hold a regular teaching license and the proportion of "out-of-field" teaching assignments is strikingly high in many subject key areas. It is also emphasised that a teacher shortage is difficult to measure and raises quality as well as quantity concerns. Given that teacher quality is a critical factor in determining student learning, it is entirely appropriate that the educational authorities in the countries with the greatest difficulties develop strategies to guarantee a sufficient supply of quality teachers. This report identifies a broad set of policies that should be given serious consideration to achieve that objective. Finally, this paper also sheds light on the current availability of data on teachers at OECD and relevant data needs for a future quantitative analysis. http://www.oecd.org/EN/documents/0,,EN-documents-0-nodirectorate-no-10-no-0,00.html
Curran, Sara, Chang Chung, Wendy Cadge, and Anchalee Varangrat. "Boys and Girls Educational Opportunities in Thailand: The Effect of Siblings, Migrations, School Proximity, and Village Remoteness." 2002-05. Abstract: Within individual countries, the paths towards increasing educational attainment are not always linear and individuals are not equally affected. Differences between boys’ and girls’ educational attainments are a common expression of this inequality as boys are more often favored for continued schooling. We examine the importance of birth cohort, sibship size, migration, school accessibility for explaining both the gender gap and its narrowing in secondary schooling in one district in Northeast Thailand between 1984-1994. Birth cohort is a significant explanation for the narrowing of the gender gap. Migration, sibship size, and remote village location are important explanations for limited secondary education opportunities, especially for girls. http://opr.princeton.edu/papers/
Sastry, Narayan. "Trends in Socioeconomic Inequalities in Under-Five Mortality: Evidence from Sao Paulo, Brazil, 1970-1991." 02-15. Abstract: In this paper I examine the effects of social and economic development on inequalities in under-five mortality for the state of São Paulo, Brazil, over a twenty-one year period during which much of the infant and child mortality transition unfolded. I investigate whether the improvements in infant and child survival were accompanied by declining inequalities. I focus on inequality in under-five mortality by household wealth and by mother’s education and use microdata from Brazilian censuses conducted in 1970, 1980, and 1991. I find that inequality according to household wealth underwent a clear decline over the study period. Inequality according to mother’s education first declined and then increased, with a net rise over the study period. When I control for background demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, inequalities in under-five mortality according to household wealth remained roughly constant. On the other hand, inequality according to mother’s education increased substantially. http://www.rand.org/labor/dru.html
Sastry, Narayan and Jon Hussey. "Explaining Race and Ethnic Disparities in Birth Weight in Chicago Neighborhoods." 02-14. Abstract: This paper examines the contribution of neighborhood and maternal characteristics to birthweight differentials among infants born to non-Hispanic black, non-Hispanic white, and Mexican-origin Hispanic mothers (of any race). Linear regression models with neighborhood fixed effects were estimated using birth certificate records for all births in Chicago from 1990. About 30 percent of the black/white disparity and about 14 percent of the black/Mexican-origin Hispanic disparity were due to neighborhood conditions. Adjusting for neighborhood and maternal characteristics accounted for 64 percent of the black/white differential and 57 percent of the black/Mexican-origin Hispanic differential. Around half of the black/white differential and the black/Mexican-origin Hispanic differential in birthweight were due to differences, across racial/ethnic groups, in the relationship between measured characteristics and birthweight. Efforts to close the birthweight gap between non-Hispanic black and other infants must go beyond programs aimed solely at reducing the level of risk factors among African-American women. Future interventions also need to address the causes of differences in the effects of key risk factors across racial and ethnic groups. http://www.rand.org/labor/dru.html
Sastry, Narayan. "Urbanization, Development and Under-Five Mortality Differentials by Place of Residence in Sao Paulo, Brazil, 1970-1991." 02-13. http://www.rand.org/labor/dru.html
Kilburn, M. Rebecca and Ashlesha Datar. "The Availability of Child Care Centers in China and Its Impact on Child Care and Maternal Work Decisions." 02-12. Abstract: While the use of child care and mothers’ labor force participation are often described as being related to the availability of center-based child care, there is little empirical evidence documenting this relationship. This paper examines the role of center availability in child care use and mother’s participation in wage labor using the China Health and Nutrition Survey. Our difference-in-difference estimates suggest that the availability of child care centers in China is associated with sizeable increases in both child care utilization and women’s wage labor in urban areas. Our results also demonstrate the importance of accounting for non-random center availability. http://www.rand.org/labor/dru.html
Sobieszczyk, Teresa, John Knodel and Napaporn Chayovan. "Gender and Well-Being among the Elderly: Evidence from Thailand." PSC Research Report 02-531. Abstract: Researchers and international organizations frequently suggest that elderly women are broadly disadvantaged in comparison to elderly men. This analysis of data from Thailand, however, indicates a far more complex association between gender and various aspects of aging. Using data from the 1% sample of the 2000 Thai census and two national surveys of the elderly in Thailand conducted in 1994 and 1995, we examine the association between gender and various demographic, economic, psychosocial, and health variables. We find that elderly Thai women do face certain disadvantages in comparison to their male counterparts, including lower education and literacy, far greater chances of experiencing widowhood and living alone, and lower likelihood of receiving formal retirement benefits. Elderly Thai men, however, face other disadvantages compared to women, including worse survivorship, a lower likelihood of receiving money from adult children, and a greater probability of debt and other financial problems. Men are also less likely to feel satisfied with their financial situation. Many other demographic, psychosocial, and economic measures are not significantly associated with gender. Our analysis provides some support for a life course perspective that relates gender differences in old age to differences in earlier life experiences, roles, and reward structures, particularly in terms of access to retirement pensions and the type of support elderly men and women provide to their coresident children. The analysis highlights the importance of marital status and age distinction, which often mediate gender differences in elderly well-being. The study concludes with research and policy recommendations. http://www.psc.isr.umich.edu/pubs/search-results.shtml?query=seriesList&seriesCode=rr
Kerr, Don. "An Alternate Strategy for Evaluating and Generating Censal Estimates." Discussion Paper 02-11. http://www.ssc.uwo.ca/sociology/popstudies/dp2002.html
Khandker, Shahidur. "Micro-Finance and Poverty: Evidence Using Panel Data from Bangladesh." Working Paper No. 2945. Abstract: Micro-finance supports mainly informal activities that often have low market demand. It may be thus hypothesized that the aggregate poverty impact of micro-finance in an economy with low economic growth is modest or nonexistent. The observed borrower-level poverty impact is then a result of income redistribution or short-run income generation. Khandker addresses these questions using household level panel data from Bangladesh. The findings confirm that micro-finance benefits the poorest and has sustained impact in reducing poverty among program participants. It also has positive spillover impact, reducing poverty at the villate level. But the effect is more pronounced in reducing extreme rather than moderate poverty. This paper—a product of Rural Development, Development Research Group—is part of a larger effort in the group to analyze the impact of targeted programs on the poor. http://econ.worldbank.org/resource.php?type=5
Bohua, Li, Woojin Chung, Monica Das Gupta, Bae Hwa-Ok, Jiang Zhenghua, and Xie Zhenming. "Why is Son Preference so Persistent in East and South Asia? A Cross-Country Study of China, India, and the Republic of Korea." Working Paper No. 2942. Abstract: Son preference has persisted in the face of sweeping economic and social changes in China, India, and the Republic of Korea. The authors attribute this to their similar family systems, which generate strong disincentives to raise daughters while valuing adult women’s contributions to the household. Urbanization, female education, and employment can only slowly change these incentives without more direct efforts by the state and civil society to increase the flexibility of the kinship system such that daughters and sons can be perceived as being more equally valuable. Much can be done to this end through social movements, legislation, and the mass media. This paper—a joint product of Public Services and Rural Development, Development Research Group—is part of a larger effort in the group to study social institutions and development outcomes. http://econ.worldbank.org/resource.php?type=5
Carvalheiro, Jose de la Rocha, Moises Goldbaum, Samuel Kilsztajn, Expedito J. A. Luna, Hillegonda Maria Dutilh Novaes, and Anaclaudia Rossbach. "The Potential Demand for an HIV/AIDS Vaccine in Brazil." Working Paper No. 2940. Abstract: This study assesses the potential demand by the public sector for a preventive HIV/AIDS vaccine in Brazil and the costs of alternative strategies for a vaccination program. Brazil has a mature AIDS epidemic: the percent of the population living with HIV or AIDS (about 0.6 percent of adults) is not as high as in other severely affected developing countries, but infection rates in specific risk groups in the population are very high and HIV has spread beyond these groups into the general population of low-risk individuals. Preventive HIV/AIDS vaccines are still in the testing stage. The characteristics of the first vaccines developed, in terms of their efficacy, duration of effectiveness, ease of administration, and price, are still unknown. But the potential benefits of such a vaccine in Brazil would be high. The study reviews the cost and impact of HIV/AIDS in Brazil, in terms of disease and economic burden, as a proxy for the benefits of an HIV/AIDS vaccine. The epidemiology of AIDS and Brazil’s experience with immunization coverage with other vaccines are used to assess the number of vaccines, delivery strategies, and possible costs of an HIV/AIDS immunization program in Brazil, assuming the availability of a 100 percent effective AIDS vaccine that lasts a lifetime under different pricing and dosing assumptions. A low-cost, highly effective vaccine would likely be affordable to an upper-middle-income country like Brazil and yield large benefits from a policy of universal, publicly subsidized immunization. But if prices are higher and the impact less favorable, the costs and effects would have to be compared with other AIDS prevention programs or other health interventions. Both political and economic considerations will likely figure into public policy on HIV/AIDS vaccination, when such a vaccine is developed. This paper—a product of Public Services, Development Research Group—is part of the research project on “The Economics of an HIV/AIDS Vaccine in Developing Dountries: Potential Impact, Cost-Effectiveness and Willingness to Pay,” sponsored by the European Commission and the Development Research Group of the World Bank. The project was launched in response to recommendations of the World Bank’s AIDS Vaccine Task Force. http://econ.worldbank.org/resource.php?type=5
López-Acevedo, Gladys. "School Attendance and Child Labor in Ecuador." Working Paper No. 2939. Abstract: López-Acevedo uses the Ecuador Living Standards and Measurement Surveys (LSMS 1998 and 1999) to analyze the characteristics and determinants of child labor and schooling. She shows how interventions at the level of adults affect child labor and school enrollment. For example, an employment policy encouraging employment in the formal modern sector reduces child labor and increases schooling. In rural areas, a wage policy (increase in the wage of the household head) has positive implications for the children, while it is less effective in urban areas. This paper—a product of the Economic Policy Sector Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region—is part of a larger effort in the region to reduce poverty and inequality through human capital investment. http://econ.worldbank.org/resource.php?type=5
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